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Solar Activity Report for 7/28/02

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  • b1blancer_29501
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** The CME from the M-8 class flare from the 26th was due to have arrived Sunday, but it appears to be running a bit late.
    Message 1 of 1 , Jul 28, 2002
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      The CME from the M-8 class flare from the 26th was due to have arrived
      Sunday, but it appears to be running a bit late. Nevertheless, it's
      arrival is still anticipated, and geomagnetic storm conditions are
      forecasted for when it does. Meanwhile, the sunspot region 39/44
      complex continues to be active, producing four more flares in the last
      24 hours, the largest being an M4.8 flare. There is a coronal hole
      rotating into view, but it appears to be too far north on the solar
      disk to affect us. Sunspot regions 39 and 44 are now in a squarely
      Earth-pointing position. If they fire off any more CME's, they could
      well be Earth-directed.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 300
      SFI : 239
      A index : 10
      K index : 2

      Solar wind speed : 452.4 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 2.5 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.9 nPa

      IMF : 4.8 nT
      IMF Orientation : 1.2 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. M-class
      flares are likely from Regions 39 and 44. Either region could produce
      a major flare during the period. Region 50 could produce an isolated
      M-class flare during the period.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. M-class
      flares are likely from Regions 39 and 44. Either region could produce
      a major flare during the period. Region 50 could produce an isolated
      M-class flare during the period.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      29-Jul-2002 0238Z M4.8
      29-Jul-2002 0023Z M1.4
      28-Jul-2002 2312Z M2.2
      28-Jul-2002 0035Z M2.3
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