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Solar Activity Report for 7/24/02

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  • b1blancer_29501
    ** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress ** ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** Waiting for impact would best describe the current situation. The CME from the X-4
    Message 1 of 1 , Jul 24, 2002
      ** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress **
      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      "Waiting for impact" would best describe the current situation. The
      CME from the X-4 flare from 7/23 is expected to arrive anytime, and
      geomagnetic storm conditions are forecasted. Meanwhile, the solar
      radiation storm triggered by the flare continues and is expected to
      last at least through tomorrow. Sunspot region 39 continues its
      active ways by producing an M-class flare, and both region 39 and 36
      have the capability of producing a major flare. The sunspot number
      has risen quite sharply over the last couple of days, and there are
      several sunspot regions visible.

      The current solar and geomagneti cconditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 270
      SFI : 208
      A index : 11
      K index : 3

      Solar wind speed : 422.3 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 2.5 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.9 nPa

      IMF : 6.2 nT
      IMF Orientation : 1.0 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Solar radiation
      storms reaching the S1 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R1
      level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Solar radiation
      storms reaching the S1 level are expected. Radio blackouts reaching
      the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 36 (S07W42)
      and 39 are both capable of producing a major flare.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm
      levels for 25 and 26 July. This activity is a result of the X4 event
      at 23/0035 UTC. The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to
      active on 27 July. The proton event currently in progress is likely to
      continue for the next 24 hours.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      24-Jul-2002 1555Z M1.2
      23-Jul-2002 0035Z X4.8
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