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Solar Activity Report for 7/16/02

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  • b1blancer_29501
    ** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress ** ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** There s been a LOT of activity over the last 48 hours, so settle back and relax. This
    Message 1 of 1 , Jul 16, 2002
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      ** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress **
      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      There's been a LOT of activity over the last 48 hours, so settle back
      and relax. This will take a little while. Let's start with July
      15th. Sunspot region 30, which now spans more than 20 Earth diamaters
      from end to end, lived up to its billing and fired off a massive X3.0
      flare. That blast triggered an S-1 (minor) solar radiation storm,
      which is still in progress. There was also a CME associated with that
      event. While it was not squarely Earth-directed, it was a
      partial-halo CME. It should be arriving here Wednesday afternoon
      Eastern time. Geomagnetic storm conditions are a definite
      possibility. That's the first part of the story. Hang on, it gets
      more interesting. At about 1630Z on Tuesday, there was a big, bright,
      beautiful full-halo CME. The general thinking is that sunsput region
      30 was responsible. If that's the case, it was without a doubt
      Earth-directed. If the timing holds up, this CME should be arriving
      about a day after the CME from the X3.0 flare. This could serve to
      enhance what may already be geomagnetic storm conditions. Finally,
      let's not forget the coronal holes. Trailing behind sumspot region
      30 is a small coronal, which could be sending solar wind gusts towards
      Earth by the coming weekend. The next few days could turn out to be
      rather interesting. Stay tuned!

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 182
      SFI : 172
      A index : 12
      K index : 2

      Solar wind speed : 402.4 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 4.9 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 1.2 nPa

      IMF : 8.6 nT
      IMF Orientation : 3.6 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Solar radiation
      storms reaching the S1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Solar radiation
      storms reaching the S1 level are expected. Radio blackouts reaching
      the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to remain at mostly moderate levels. Region
      30 is expected to produce M-class flares. It is also capable of
      producing another major flare during the period. Region 36 could
      produce an isolated M-class flare during the period.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to
      minor storm levels during 17 - 18 July in anticipation of a CME
      passage associated with the X3/3b flare of 15 July. The shock is
      expected to arrive around midday tomorrow. Field activity is expected
      to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on 19 July. The greater than
      10 MeV proton event is expected to peak on 17 July then slowly decay
      through the rest of the period.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      15-Jul-2002 2132Z M1.8
      15-Jul-2002 2008Z X3.0
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