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More comments on flaring

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  • Pawnfart
    On flaring and climate change and the ionosphere, I don t think this effect is well understood and would like to see more objective studies regaring variations
    Message 1 of 702 , Jun 10, 2001
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      On flaring and climate change and the ionosphere,
      I don't think this effect is well understood and
      would like to see more objective studies regaring
      variations in solar activity and its effect on our climate.
      <br><br>I did so more drawing and thinking about my model,
      and I wish I could show you pictures, but I think I
      have it put together in terms of cirrus cloud
      enhancement. <br><br>Let me number my thoughts, although the
      numbers really have no meaning :) : <br><br>1. Flaring
      increases concentration of ozone from min to max about 2%.
      Landscheidt describes lags, eg lag between Southern Ocean
      oscillation ENSO. I have seen similar models with similar
      lages from W. White at Scripps. The model must explain
      coupling and lags. Flaring itself does not cause a direct
      correlation. <br><br>2. When the day light hits the
      ionosphere--it warms and expands. For purposes of this
      discussion--IT MOVES. When the ionosphere expands or contracts,
      the ozone, a conductor, moves through the earth's
      magnetic feild and inducts current. <br><br>3. The extent
      of this movement is defined by the amount of ozone
      and the intensity of the flaring. Thus,
      interestingly, the peak of the flaring may not describe the peak
      of the ozone levels. Ozone gets removed not just by
      human CFCs but by methane, for instance, or even by
      flaring itself. <br><br>4. When the ionosphere expands
      from daily heating, applying Fleming's left hand rule
      (yes, Kevin, this is crude and lacks calculas
      integrations really required to get the exact values), the
      expansion makes a tangent line moving east at the
      intersection, but because of the curvature of the earth, to a
      point to the west, the vector would be a rising one. As
      the ionosphere contracts after the end of the day
      (think in terms of how your radio picks up AM stations
      hundreds of miles away after dark), the movement of this
      conductor (and I realize this is somewhat of a
      simplicatino), is essentially back down to the earth, so that
      Fleming would have current movement due WEST with a
      tangent vector--that to an observer west of that point
      would appear rising due to the earth's curvature.
      <br><br>5. Thus, the evening or late afternoon probably has
      the greatest chance of cirrus enhancement via the
      ionosphere, and in particular at the time of an El Nino.
      <br><br>6. The appearance of a third van Allen belt along
      the equator during the last El Nino makes some sense
      given this model. <br><br>7. Warm anomolies in the
      Southern Ocean during a strong El Nino also make some
      sense, because the currents of the Antarctica circupolar
      are eastward moving, and would be by themselves
      cirrus reducing from an induction standpoint. The
      contrast of polar and tropical may be why there is a lag
      of appearance of El Nino characteristics that
      Landscheidt notes. <br><br>8. As putting CO2 into the air
      warms the oceans, and makes them less conductive, and
      methanogens make more hydrates, further insulating the
      oceans, the induction from the oceans, part of Gaia and
      modulation, becomes less influential relative to the sun's
      flaring.
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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