The flares have been coming hot and heavy over the last several days,
finishing up with an M1.8 flare on the 6th. The fun may be over for a
time, however, since sunspot region 17 has rotated out of view.
Sunspot region 19, however, has a chance of generating at least a
modest M-class flare. The Earth is inside of a coronal hole generated
high speed solar wind stream this evening, which is expected to
persist. On the heels of the coronal hole that is affecting the solar
wind speeds now is a smaller one that should be coming into an
Earth-pointing position in a couple of days. We may see some more
solar wind gusts from it late in the week. Although geomagnetic
activity is relatively quiet for the time being, some aurora displays
aren't out of the question for the higher latitudes.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 123
SFI : 134
A index : 21
K index : 3
Solar wind speed : 447.5 km/sec
Solar wind density : 2.0 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.6 nPa
IMF : 4.2 nT
IMF Orientation : 0.8 nT North
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 19 remains
capable of C-class activity. An isolated M-class flare in this region
is also possible.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active as the
coronal hole disturbance continues.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
06-Jul-2002 0342Z M1.8
05-Jul-2002 1326Z M3.2
04-Jul-2002 0734Z M1.1