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Solar Activity Report for 7/4/02

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  • b1blancer_29501
    As the fireworks burst overhead this evening, the sun has been setting off its own fireworks. Five significant flares have erupted within the last 48 hours.
    Message 1 of 1 , Jul 4, 2002
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      As the fireworks burst overhead this evening, the sun has been setting
      off its own fireworks. Five significant flares have erupted within
      the last 48 hours. All have some from sunspot region 17, which is now
      close to the western limb of the solar disk. One M-5 class flare did
      fire off a large CME, but it was not Earth-directed. The solar wind
      density is sharply elevated this evening. I suspect the solar wind
      gusts from the coronal hole mentioned in my last report have arrived a
      bit earlier than anticipated. There's no mention of an aurora watch
      being in effect, but I wouldn't be surprised of some aurora were seen
      in the higher latitudes over the next few evenings. On an
      interesting side-note, all of the sunspot groups visible are in the
      southern hemisphere of the sun. Sunspot regions 17 and 19 both have
      the potential for producing more flares.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 175
      SFI : 146
      A index : 6
      K index : 2

      Solar wind speed : 359.0 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 15.3 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 3.2 nPa

      IMF : 2.2 nT
      IMF Orientation : 0.4 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be moderate. M-class flares are possible
      in both Regions 17 and 19. Region 17 remains the most likely to
      produce a major flare.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a
      general increase in activity levels over the next three days due to a
      coronal hole.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      04-Jul-2002 0734Z M1.1
      03-Jul-2002 2010Z M5.3
      03-Jul-2002 1945Z M1.1
      03-Jul-2002 0213Z X1.5
      02-Jul-2002 2031Z M1.5
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