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Solar Activity Report for 7/2/02

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  • b1blancer_29501
    Solar activity has picked up quite a bit in the last 24 hours with two significant flares being produced, the largest of which was a powerful X-class event.
    Message 1 of 1 , Jul 2, 2002
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      Solar activity has picked up quite a bit in the last 24 hours with two
      significant flares being produced, the largest of which was a powerful
      X-class event. The X-class flare happened about 3 hours ago, and no
      real data is available it yet. The most likely source is Sunspot
      region 17, which was also the source of the M-class flare. This one
      probably caught some folks by surprise. There had been no mention of
      anything other than the possibility of an M-class flare. There's no
      mention yet of any associated CME's, but more should be known tomorrow
      as the SOHO satellite data is analyzed. In the mean time, a coronal
      hole has now rotated into an Earth-pointing position. Look for the
      solar wind gusts from it to arrive here by the weekend.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 85
      SFI : 149
      A index : 5
      K index : 2

      Solar wind speed : 380.1 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 3.5 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : n/a

      IMF : 4.0 nT
      IMF Orientation : 0.2 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R3 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to continue at low to moderate levels.
      Regions 17 and 19 have potential to produce isolated M-class flares.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled
      levels with isolated active periods at high latitudes through day one.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      03-Jul-2002 0210Z X1.0 (estimated)
      02-Jul-2002 2031Z M1.5
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