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Three Gorge, "PDO", and US dry patch.

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  • pawnfart
    I am about to cut and paste stuff I have written, what, two years ago? Anyway, preliminarily, I would say that the Great Lakes the previous two years were at
    Message 1 of 1 , Jun 28, 2002
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      I am about to cut and paste stuff I have written, what, two years
      ago? Anyway, preliminarily, I would say that the Great Lakes the
      previous two years were at lows matching the 1960s. That happens to
      match when there was substantial work on the Mississippi delta, which
      I have discussed here before. In this instance, what we are talking
      about is a post 500 year El Nino warm oceans which IMHO warmed
      oceans--and created an interesting situation that with warmer oceans
      they are more conductive, and hence when the gyres bring those waters
      to the western Pacific they actually induct AGAINST cirrus more,
      bringing colder temperatures around the other side of the gyres to N.
      America, and less precip. But with Three Gorge there was an added
      problem, in that right there were this turn from east to west to west
      to east occurs in the gyres, the insulative values were decreased.
      Mongolia turned into a Dust Bowl and North America faced even less
      cirrus, more drought potential. Three Gorge wasn't actually built in
      November 1997--just diverted. And during this period millions of
      people have been relocated to the delta region from the flood plain,
      causing reduction of sedimentation from the soil retention projects
      created so that these people had a place to live. Then, last fall
      there was heavy local cyclonic activity there near the delta, and
      erosion occurred and the Gaia processes from the Yangtze could occur
      again. Since that time we have had a more normal spring in terms of
      cirrus enhancement from insulation, and that is what IMHO "almost"
      gave us ENSO conditions. But again, the oceans are SOOO warm that
      induction, once it starts going the other way, brings SST anomalies
      cold to the other side . . . this is why the SW got hit even harder
      with drought. If Three Gorge situation brought drought north, then
      counter intuitively the COOLER W. Pacific would have LESS cirrus
      reduction as the gyre moved west to east. So, by the time those
      waters and winds reached the SW coast, they weren't as cold. Plus,
      any energy would have a better tendency to go north along the
      subtropical jet. Now, however, with those cold anomalies swinging
      around AND the terrible conditions of Gaia for the Colorado river,
      the SW is getting hammered. So, without further ado, here is some
      old posts on Gaia and Three Gorge (understanding that Three Gorge is
      the largest dam, but only one of 30,000 constructed in Asia over the
      past 30 years):



      Three Gorges Dam

      http://www.igc.apc.org/hric/reports/3gorges.html#N12

      ". . . ground was broken on the dam in 1994, . . ."

      "the diversion of the Yangtze in November 1997, when the central
      leadership put on a great show of unity in support of the project at
      the ceremony to block the great river. . ."

      "For example, farmers who live below the 135-meter mark in Yunyang,
      Fengjie and Wushan counties said that they know they would have to
      relocate before the year 2003 because the reservoir is scheduled to
      inundate their homes and land by then. . ."

      "At the time of its founding in 1949, the People's Republic of China
      had no large reservoirs and no more than 40 small hydroelectric
      stations. By 1985, centrally planned projects to generate electricity
      through hydro-power, increase irrigation coverage and control
      flooding had resulted in the construction of more than 80,000
      reservoirs and 70,000 hydroelectric stations. By 1992, the year when
      the Three Gorges Dam project was officially approved, China had 369
      large-scale reservoirs with capacity exceeding 100 million cubic
      meters.12 At present, China's dam-building effort is reaching new
      heights with 15 gigantic hydropower stations, including the Three
      Gorges Dam, under construction, each with a planned generating
      capacity of over 1,000 megawatts.13 "

      (relevant footnotes)

      "12. China Statistical Yearbook (Zhongguo tongji nianjian), State
      Statistics Press, Beijing, 1993, p. 351; Vaclav Smil, China's
      Environmental Crisis: Inquiry into the Limits of National
      Development, M.E. Sharpe, Armonk, NY., 1993, pp. 109-10.

      13. Cheng Zhongzhi and Sun Jiaping, China's Electricity Industry
      (Zhongguo dianli gongye), Electricity Industry Press, Beijing, 1996,
      pp. 31. "

      See how the construction correlates with ocean sea surface
      temperatures. Understand that the Japan Stream is like the Gulf
      stream, and moves in a gyre up to Alaska and down to California, so
      that cold anolomies are clearly commencing in China from the region
      of the dam construction and then moving consistently with this gyre.
      A date marking spring is chosen because dams will shift sed and flow
      rates to later in the season, and, hence, the peak of spring should
      be comparatively cold as methanogens are deprived of ditrimus and
      lower salinity levels, such that there should be less feedback to
      water vapor, a GHG. Note that the cold anomoly extends all the way to
      the US coast:

      http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.3.20.20
      01.gif

      http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.3.18.20
      00.gif

      http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.3.16.19
      99.gif

      http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/climo_archive/anomnigh
      t.3.17.1998.gif

      In the following link, prior to the biggest dam in the world having
      ground breaking, there is a cold anomoly by China, but it doesn't
      extend to US coast. Note that the Sea of Okhotsk is ice free here but
      not after Three Gorge dam waters diverted as of 3/18/97 and how the
      cold anomolies don't reach the US or Canadian coast as they do in the
      following years. Since ground was broken on Three Gorge Dam in
      November 1997, spring 1997 is a fair control:

      http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/climo_archive/data/ano
      mnight.3.18.1997.gif

      That ends the sat data for spring. It would be interesting to compare
      the ice free date relative to worldwide changes in spring for prior
      years to see what the impact of the other dam construction in the
      region had on the years leading up to the sat data of 1997. I looked
      but couldn't find that data, but this is pretty dramatic.

      Consider that with the dam construction history of the US that
      predates this construction, and a Dust Bowl occurred therefrom.
      Global temperatures were considerably colder as a result of this
      activity, and tropical hurricane activity practically ceased in close
      proximity to major construction events. The flow of rain and storms
      moves away from China, such that they have not had to suffer almost
      all the climate consequences of their activity like the US did--but
      Mongolia was hit pretty hard.


      http://washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/inatl/longterm/yangtze/yangtze.htm

      November 9, 1997

      "The plugging of the world's third-longest river at its steepest and
      most perilous point marked a major — and some critics fear
      irreversible — step forward in the construction of the controversial
      Three Gorges Dam.

      National television broadcast live the final stage in building the
      temporary barrier that will shield the dam work site from the river,
      a task that makes the parting of the Red Sea seem simple by
      comparison.

      For six and a half hours, a procession of oversized earth movers —
      118 per hour — dropped 45-ton and 77-ton loads of rock and gravel
      into a 33-foot gap in the barrier. At 3:15 p.m., when the pool of
      water below the barrier grew still and the river above turned to join
      the water flowing through a temporary diversion channel, fireworks
      went off, ships' horns blared, cheers went up from thousands of
      spectators on the shoreline, and the brass band from the Navy's
      engineering institute struck up "Song for the Motherland."


      SST anomalies followed.

      http://itw.sewanee.edu/ES/Hart/Projects/Dam/

      "When first begun, the Three Gorges Dam Project was estimated to cost
      57.1 billion yuan ($6.88 billion). Now that this enormous bill has
      grown to more than 250 billion yuan ($30.12 billion), money is
      becoming a great issue. At least 40 billion yuan will be devoted to
      the resettling of migrants, but this number will probably grow. While
      as much as 60% of the funding for the project will come from the
      Chinese government, much of the money devoted to the project is
      coming from American investment firms such as Lehman Brothers, C.S.
      First Boston, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Smith Barney, and
      BancAmerica Securities. In 1997, the companies listed above signed a
      bond worth $330 million to the State Development Bank of China, a
      firm which is heavily involved in the project. More bonds were
      expected from this group (www.irn.org). "

      http://sanxia.uhome.net/big5/news/cdnnews/im010308.htm

      "NEARLY a quarter of a million people will have to be moved to make
      way for an ambitious project to divert water from the flood-prone
      Yangtze River to parched cities and farmlands in the north, Chinese
      People's Political Consultative Conference delegates said yesterday. "


      What we have here is the dams changing the methanogen habitat such
      that just like dam building caused a dust bowl in America, monsoonal
      flows that curl in from the southeast are slowed, and you get
      drought. Hence, the irony of water diversion projects, and the
      further iron that this will probably cause the conditions to worsen,
      to say nothing of drought in places like Hawaiian Islands, as well as
      low levels of water in the Great Lakes down flow from the decreased
      convection activity by the affected methanogen habitat.
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