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Re: Cyclone Adolph

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  • Pawnfart
    The next flaring event per Daly s site is 2003. It will be interesting if between now and then whether a sulfur producing volcanoe erupts, because sulfur
    Message 1 of 702 , May 30, 2001
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      The next flaring event per Daly's site is 2003.
      It will be interesting if between now and then
      whether a sulfur producing volcanoe erupts, because
      sulfur changes at first the phase change temperature of
      cirrus clouds and later the phase temperature of methane
      hydrates. <br><br>We already had a small flaring event in
      March of this year. The warm SSTs lasted about a month,
      and are clearly behind the formation of Adolph, the
      only Cat 4 E. Pac cyclone--ever. Very interesting its
      movement--west, which is where induction would be the greatest.
      As I see it, cirrus enhancement comes with the
      flaring. It should be noted that a third van Allen belt
      was found above the 1997-98 El Nino and that studies
      have linked cirrus activity to the formation of an El
      Nino. Further, the prevailing winds blow the Equatorial
      Countercurrent with much greater intensity and a "bulge" of
      water forms near where South and Central America
      connect. That is essentially the conditions in March. But
      as the flaring movement ends and Fleming's left
      handed rule, applied to the daily movement of the
      ionosphere as it cuts across the earth's magnetic field, no
      longer produces an electrical vector pointed toward
      where a third van Allen belt might form, and the "pile"
      or "bulge" of ocean water began to spread. And one
      area it spread and flowed into was the area where
      Adolph formed. Thus, you get surface movements WEST of a
      very warm body of water, so warm it is also warm
      deeper than say Ekman counter currents could reach cold,
      and therefore, more conductive waters, you get less
      of a negitive cirrus vector at counter current
      depths. So moving west, a storm get pick up some huge
      energy. <br><br>Throw in a very cold North Pacific above
      the storm related to the China dam activity,
      depleting the waters there of detritus and therefore
      methanogen habitat and electrically insulating methane
      hydrates, and there is little that even spring winds can do
      to stir up energies that would "suck" the energy
      from the topics along the tropical jet, before a
      cyclone can organize. Thus, we get a May Cat 4--first
      time EVER.
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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