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Re: Daly, ENSO, and cirrus clouds

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  • Pawnfart
    The email battle continues one way: John, I will assume your failure to respond is stunned silence. I also have noted from your site
    Message 1 of 702 , May 14 11:02 PM
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      The email battle continues one way: <br><br>John,
      <br><br>I will assume your failure to respond is stunned
      silence. <br><br>I also have noted from your site comments
      about a northern Alaska thunderstorm. While contrary to
      warmers, my view is that much of the recent strange
      weather there is related to China dams, I want to
      continue my thoughts on El Nino and flaring with a quick
      comment on your thunderstorm observations. You mention a
      thunderstorm that was observed in the area essentially during
      the Little Ice Age period. This is interesting by not
      really helpful, because if during the Little Ice Age
      there is more ice on the land and the oceans are
      colder, the oceans will be better conductors! Get it?
      <br><br>Perhaps not. As I have mentioned, flaring is behind ENSO.
      But this flaring must overcome ocean electrical
      conditions. And as the data shows, during Wisconsonian
      conditions, we don't observe El Nino. As a subset of this
      idea, we would expect that during the Little Ice Age we
      would also fail to observe El Ninos, correct? Well,
      let's look at the data: <br><br>A 400 year long coral
      record collected at teh "epicenter" of ENSO activity in
      the Galapagos Islands, indicates that in the
      mid-1600s, the frequency of ENSO progressively increased in
      a step-wise manner following the end of the LIttle
      Ice Age. In the mid-1600s, the recurrence interval
      was centered at one event every 6 years. By 1750, the
      frequency increased to 4.6 yeards and by mid 1800s, the
      pace was steped up to one event every 3.4 yeares,
      close to present rate. [Dunbar et al, 1994]
      <br><br>Now, let me explain what up here. Keeling Whorf
      depressurization of methane hydrates decreases insUlation of
      counter currents and you get less cirrus formation. You
      get colder temps and glaciers expand. As they expand,
      they take water out of the oceans and cool it. This
      makes the oceans more conductive, and more powerful at
      moving cirrus relative to the solar flaring. But as the
      glaciers in turn melt, and the oceans warm, the oceans
      become weaker conductors, and flaring becomes relatively
      more a forcing. Therefore, you would expect to find
      the frequency changes that are seen here.
      <br><br>Again, I assume that the sun's flaring is relatively
      constant. <br><br>Mike <br><br>PS Here is a cool bit of
      research: <br><br>Ramanathan, V., and W. Collins, 1991:
      Thermodynamic Regulation Of Ocean Warming By Cirrus Clouds
      Deduced From Observations Of The 1987 El Ni´┐Żo. Nature,
      351, 27-32.
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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