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Daly, ENSO, and cirrus clouds

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  • Pawnfart
    This is from a recent email exchange on another bb that he hasn t responded back from (and no wonder): John, Please take a look at this link:
    Message 1 of 702 , May 14, 2001
      This is from a recent email exchange on another
      bb that he hasn't responded back from (and no
      wonder): <br><br>John, <br><br>Please take a look at this
      <br><br><a href=http://www.union.edu/News/CollegeNews/Releases/1998-99/elnino.htm target=new>http://www.union.edu/News/CollegeNews/Releases/1998-99/elnino.htm</a> <br><br>Allow me to revisit this idea--I realize
      that I stripped it down and took out of context a bit
      [from John's most recent email]: <br><br>"For this
      reason the electricity in the atmosphere caused by air
      movement and water vapour is so pervasive as to negate any
      other electrical sources" <br><br>I am going to visit
      upon you some very new material--I just put this idea
      together tonight and I share it with you. And you deserve
      it, because of the fine work you have put out,
      especially the work on flaring. [You have to massage this
      guy's ego to get a response]. <br><br>I suspect that
      you will not contend that El Nino appearred 5,000
      years ago in present form not because of any flaring
      rate change but because, more likely, a change in
      Milankovitch insOation, no? <br><br>Bear with me. As you know
      I suggest that the flaring electrically moves
      cirrus. Fleming's left hand rule sits quite well with
      this idea, at least in terms of vectors. The
      ionosphere moves with the sun from east to west. If you
      apply Fleming to this, assuming magnetic north, the
      current vector is out to space. For those of you having
      trouble following, pretend with your left hand you are
      flipping the bird to me and pointing with your pointer
      finger at the CRT at the same time, with your hitchhiker
      thumb due west. <br><br>So, assuming the sun is, well,
      big and dumb and slow to change, why the heck does
      ENSO start up correlated with Milankovitch changes?
      Flaring would seem to bring out these vectors 15,000
      years ago--what is so special about 5,000 years ago?
      <br><br>Now, I could get even more confusing and talk about W.
      B. White's ENSO research at Scripps and the idea
      about salinity pulses coming from the Med., but I amd
      going to make one simple observation . . . When you put
      ice on the land you make the oceans more saline. When
      there are more glaciers climate also tends to be cold,
      and the oceans colder. What do we know about
      conductors and temperature and salinity? Yep. Colder and
      more saline means less resistance. More salinity and
      colder waters would make the oceans better
      conductors--this correspondes to Wisconsonian conditions. The
      oceans as a better conductors contrasts the electrical
      forcings from the ionosphere from flaring and the
      induction there--because this should be relatively
      constant. Thus, the stronger induction in the oceans would
      overcome flaring, overcome ENSO. For the foregoing
      reasons, we don't really see ENSO until melting frees up
      enough water so that ocean salinity is reduced and ocean
      temperatures rise--so there is resistance of current that can
      now be overcome by ionospheric activity.
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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