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763Tornado Alley--To Paul

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  • pawnfart
    Apr 1, 2002
      --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., paul hadfield <paul@p...> wrote:
      > pawnfart said:
      > "(I would also be concerned about tornadic activity in
      > the alley in early May. Conditions are almost the same
      > as 1999. )"
      > very interesting... i say that as a local forecaster
      > named Joe Bauer of WANDTV Central IL during a severe
      > wx special called "Spring Alert" airing last week
      > (3/27) said that "this year was to expected to be weak
      > in the way of activity." he offered no supporting
      > evidence

      This is actually more reasoned than it seems, despite him giving no
      support to his conclusion. What it relies on, clearly, is the El
      Nino call that many meteorologists have made. As demostrated by
      those experts on that last hurricane link who spoke on the NPR show
      (again, highly recommended listening) the best and brightest think
      chaos and El Nino. Both are flat WRONG.

      Historically, when there is El Nino conditions it means low hurricane
      AND tornadic activity. So his view is reasoned assuming that there
      is an El Nino based on what the experts, like NOAA, called. But, as
      I have posted below in great detail--there will be no El Nino. What
      we will instead have is what I call a post flaring event nuetral or
      cold anomalies. What that tends to mean is that instead of the
      equatorial counter current and winds reversing themselves like an El
      Nino, the equatorials follow normal EASTWARD tracking and when these
      flaring/post El Nino warmed equatorials move in that direction near
      Panama in the E. Pac they then begin to move NW toward the California
      coast. These waters heat up then and really enhance the subtropical
      jet that moves toward the tornado zone.

      So what you have, if you look at SST anomalies from 1999 and what is
      slowly forming now, is a line between cold anomalies in the N.
      Pacific and warm anomalies riding all the way from the E. Pac to the
      GOM to the N. Atlantic. That line that divides these two extremes
      runs right through tornado alley.

      Now, during an El Nino, GENERALLY SPEAKING there is flaring patterns
      that enhance cirrus relative to what the sun is doing, or the action
      is from the sky down--not what the SSTs patterns provide--or the
      action is from the ocean up. That is true despite the obvious ocean
      SST patterns the define an El Nino, and I am speaking about how El
      Nino impacts US weather patterns. What that tends to do is cause
      more steady rainfall conditions and not jet stream driven powerful
      storms where there are contrasting fronts that have organized along
      SST anomalies . . .

      but since 1999 was a big year around here in
      > Central IL (as well as in the S) with 34 tornadoes
      > reported in this region alone (source:
      > http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ilx/torn.htm), who is to say
      > that he is right? in contrast to your statement
      > regarding similiar conditions and the historical facts
      > associated with 1999 also with the fact that 1998 was
      > a HUGE year with 52 reported in Central IL, i wonder
      > where someone like him gets his info to make such a
      > statement about the outcome when in fact we won't know
      > till the season is over. granted, 2000 and 2001 were
      > fairly quiet however 2001 presented a "late bloomer"
      > on October 24th mauling a large area of Monticello IL
      > and way past the usual season. i'll be following your
      > theory along with our local met's prediction to see
      > who is right or at least closest. so far you've been
      > dead on and it would be funny if our local guy eats
      > his words... just so long as it isn't at the expense
      > of life or property... be well!
      > (that link contains a host of interesting Central IL
      > tornado stats, take note of the pattern-like flow of
      > the numbers.)
      > =====
      > stop by anytime! http://www.pawleewurx.com
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