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762Re: Florida Black Tide

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  • fredwx
    Apr 1, 2002
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      Trying the link again - click on the icon over Florida:

      http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/
      http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/Archive/Mar2002/modis_
      > fl_blk_20020130_lrg.jpg
      >
      > --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., pawnfart <no_reply@y...> wrote:
      > > It's April and so here goes. Parenthetically, last Friday on
      NPR's
      > > Talk of the Nation/Science Friday they talked about El Nino and
      the
      > > Drought:
      > >
      > > ++++++++++++++++
      > >
      > > http://www.npr.org/ramfiles/totn/20020329.totn.01.ram
      > >
      > > Drought / El Nino
      > >
      > > Guests:
      > >
      > > Donald A. Wilhite
      > > * Director, National Drought Mitigation Center
      > > * International Drought Information Center
      > > * Associate Director and Professor, School of Natural Resource
      > > Sciences
      > > * University of Nebraska
      > > * Lincoln, Nebraska
      > >
      > > Tony Barnston
      > > * Head, Forecast Operations
      > > * International Research Institute for Climate Prediction
      > > * Lamont Dougherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University
      > > * Palisades, New York
      > >
      > > Joseph Atkinson
      > > * Professor, Department of Civil, Structural and Environmental
      > > Engineering
      > > * Director, Great Lakes Program University at Buffalo, State
      > > University of New York
      > > * Buffalo, New York
      > >
      > > East coast states from Maine to Georgia and western states from
      > > Montana down through Texas are facing drought conditions. Climate
      > > forecasters don't see much relief on the way. In this hour, we'll
      > > take a look at the causes of the drought, whether or not there's
      an
      > > El Nino connection, and the climate forecasts for the months
      ahead.
      > > Plus, we'll hear how the drought is affecting one part of the
      > country
      > > -- the Great Lakes.
      > >
      > > +++++++++++++
      > >
      > > This is REALLY worth the listen. I bring this up because the
      > opinions
      > > of these researchers remind me of what perhaps traditionaly
      > > forecaster would say about forecasts of El Nino. And I again say
      > > chaos then, chaos now leads to a conclusion, wrongheaded, that
      > fossil
      > > fuel use is okay. It is biological modulation then, modulation
      > now,
      > > defect in feedback loops that allows me to rationally state that
      > > there is a problem--as well as to make some preductions. Well, I
      > > correctly disputed the El Nino call last year about this time
      right
      > > here at this club/group and I am going to do it again this year.
      > >
      > > I will write this so it is unequivical. No El Nino. And it is
      > EASY
      > > to forecast this with the flaring peak over and the melting
      glacial
      > > ice in the Southern Oceans. (Thanks B-1--you rule). That is
      > critical
      > > to any hurricane forecast.
      > >
      > > Now, let me talk about the drought. Particularly on the East
      Coast
      > > and in the SW and Colorado flood plain. Great Lakes remain at
      > record
      > > lows like last year--haven't seen low levels like this since
      > changes
      > > to the Mississippi delta swamps in the 60s. This means there is
      NO
      > > WAY there will be a NE coast landfall. It also means it is less
      > > likely, but possible, for a NC landfall. The EPAC will continue
      to
      > > see reduced overall activity AFTER the energy from the "El Nino"
      > > winds of March dispates perhaps with another early large May
      storm.
      > >
      > > The no El Nino is consistant with this headline discussed here
      this
      > > weekend:
      > >
      > > SCRIPPS SCIENTIST DISCOVERS WARMING TREND IN SOUTHERN OCEAN OVER
      > THE
      > > LAST 50 YEARS
      > >
      > > Decline in Antarctic sea ice, carbon dioxide storage, possible
      > > implications
      > > http://scrippsnews.ucsd.edu/pressreleases/gille_science_warm.html
      > >
      > >
      > > As I have been saying now for some time, warmer Southern Ocean
      > means
      > > that it conducts a current better. Put another way, the water has
      a
      > > higher specific conductivity. The general direction of current
      > > (excepting the eddy by B-22) has inducted a current against
      cirrus
      > > formation (EASTWARD) and that is why warmer ocean mean both
      melting
      > > glaciers AND colder interior. Of course, where the oceans are
      > warmer
      > > there is a double effect of where the currents move WESTWARD
      there
      > is
      > > greater cirrus enhancement and extremes of flooding and so forth.
      > > OTOH, where these warm waters melt ice fresh water capping has
      the
      > > effect the other way, which is why I have been pretty confident
      > about
      > > no El Nino. That was the case from 12,500 to 7,500 years ago BP--
      no
      > > El Nino. No El Nino means heavy hurricane activity per Dr.
      Gray's
      > > stats. I will hook you up with Gray links if you doubt it.
      > >
      > > Warmer waters also mean melting hydrate ice, which means drought--
      > > like the east coast. It also may be a biological loss that leads
      > to
      > > low hydrate activity. Which I think is the case w/ the N.
      > Pacific.
      > > Cold anomalies again dominate the north N. Pacific. Is this
      warmer
      > > waters melting hydrates or 30,000 dams built in Asia over the
      past
      > 30
      > > years culminated by Three Gorge's diversion in November 1997?
      > Could
      > > it be the ag changes that go with the hydrology changes as it
      > relates
      > > to the biosphere in the N. Pacific? Changes in moon earth
      > > depressurization and tides? My estimate is it is the dams,
      > > particularly the relocation of millions of people to the Yangtze
      > > combined with warmer ocean temperatures and it has dramatically
      > > depleted the hydrate activity in the northern N. Pacific.
      > >
      > > What does this have to do with hurricanes? Well, it is your
      Great
      > > Lakes problem, drought in the western plains, and Rockies. This
      > > impacts secondary hydrology and therefore impacts the biosphere
      > where
      > > hurricanes take place. Of greatest note is the Great Lake's
      > drainage
      > > and the NE coast.
      > >
      > > It is incredible to see this with the SST anomalies along the NE
      > > coast:
      > >
      > > http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html
      > >
      > > SST anomalies are up for the 29th. Of interest also are the cold
      > > anomalies off West Africa. This is as predicted with the new dams
      > > built there in the past 5 years--really screwed up Dr. Gray's
      > > forecast. Dams there SHIFT what should be spring rains and
      > feedbacks
      > > that maintain warmth. Cape Verde storms in particular get shut
      down
      > > until much later in the season and then come on much stronger.
      > There
      > > is the problem of an Alberto, but that is related to the
      drought.
      > > What happens is the cold anomalies off the NE coast cause really
      > > strong coriolis driven WESTWARD winds to move to the south of the
      > > cold anomalies. This inducts a strong current and causes over
      time
      > a
      > > cummulative warm patch where an Alberto like storm can form.
      With
      > > flaring down, look for a long churning mid N. Atlantic storm end
      of
      > > July or August.
      > >
      > > Flaring yesterday, for instance, was heavy but otherwise flaring
      > has
      > > started to be quiet. Quiet as a over all long term trend. SSTs
      and
      > > rivers are really going to matter as we move away from the double
      > > peak flaring cycle and are on its decelleration.
      > >
      > > On the 29th SST anomalie here in N. Cal you see slightly cold
      > > anomalies compared to S. Cal w/ straight cold anomalies. That is
      > > related to their drought there and very poor Gaia conditions.
      > Cold
      > > anomalies also dominate in the Gulf of California. That's the
      > > drought in the Colorado flood plain and Gaia feeding back no
      cirrus
      > > enhancement. I think this makes for continued drought conditions
      in
      > > the monsoonal zone of the SW and also probably decreases the
      chance
      > > for an Allison storm this spring.
      > >
      > > The drought in New York and the rest of the east coast will
      > continue
      > > and is continuing by the SST anomalies. Great Lake levels, again,
      > are
      > > at 30 year lows--just like last year. This will continue given
      > > conditions in the N. Pacific. It is going to be very terrible on
      > the
      > > east coast this summer. Very bad. And forget about a hurricane
      > > providing rain relief. Very unlikely.
      > >
      > > Let me now sum up in a nutshell some of the basics of my forecast.
      > >
      > > No El Nino. Very heavy. We will see named storms with an M and
      > > perhaps an O. Shifted late. This is a key aspect of the dams,
      > > particularly West Africa w/ Cape Verde storms and then the dams
      on
      > > the Orinoco and Amazon and other South/Central American rivers.
      > Note
      > > new dams on Orinoco and Amazon and West Africa already giving
      cold
      > > anomaly readings, especially West Africa. This is occurring
      right
      > > now. By August the trend starts to reverse and by October the
      dams
      > > bring Gaia feedbacks warm oceans just when conditions are most
      ripe
      > > for storms. Very dangerous. It's your Mitch, Caracus, Kevin,
      > > Michelle problem and it aint going away. If you get small
      flaring
      > > event timed with this. Well . . . Mitch.
      > >
      > > Florida had black algae bloom and no flooding so far in
      > Mississipi.
      > > It's still early on that. We get some rain and flooding on the
      > > Mississippi and that could change in the next few weeks, but as
      of
      > > right now, the Mississippi input is the subsistance from years of
      > > abuse and the man made lakes starting to show their age and the
      > > swamps in the delta eroding away. 25 square miles per years is
      > lost
      > > to the GOM and that goes straight to the methanogens. Then there
      > is
      > > the weathering, higher CO2 disucssion we have had here and there
      > you
      > > go.
      > >
      > > The Florida bloom is related to the end of the drought and the
      > fires
      > > and all that bio material flowing to oceans. While the waters are
      > > black with algae and fish aren't being caught, it is very strong
      > > hydrate conditions that make Florida a target this year. So
      Florida
      > > and Mississippi are somewhat different biologically this year. I
      am
      > > not sure what that means yet for early GOM storm like Allison,
      > except
      > > that I suspect that we may see one more to the east of the
      > > Mississippi. We will have another post flaring event storm that
      > > historically has landfell to Texas, but I think we are talking
      > about
      > > more of a eastward track.
      > >
      > > (I would also be concerned about tornadic activity in the alley
      in
      > > early May. Conditions are almost the same as 1999. )
      > >
      > > Anyway, the biggest news will be the drought on the east coast,
      > which
      > > as far as I can see will last AT LEAST another 3 months. And
      mean
      > NO
      > > land falls to the NE, consistant with the decrease of these
      storms
      > > over the past 30 years as oceans have warmed against hydrate
      > activity.
      > >
      > > All storms will continue to be in general stalling/flooding
      types,
      > > with slower surface buzz sawing risks due to the lack of SOx
      > > emissions from any volcanic event. Put another way, while I have
      my
      > > eyes on Florida right now, no Andrew is coming to buzz saw things
      > on
      > > the ground. Storms will be more like Allison--low wind rainy
      > things.
      > >
      > > Look for an early storm GOM storm, Alberto II in late July, and a
      > > heavy shifted season, with most of the action further south then
      > > historically seen.
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