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761Florida Black Tide

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  • fredwx
    Apr 1 7:12 AM
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      Here is a link to a Satellite photo showing the black tide:
      http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/Archive/Mar2002/modis_
      fl_blk_20020130_lrg.jpg

      --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., pawnfart <no_reply@y...> wrote:
      > It's April and so here goes. Parenthetically, last Friday on NPR's
      > Talk of the Nation/Science Friday they talked about El Nino and the
      > Drought:
      >
      > ++++++++++++++++
      >
      > http://www.npr.org/ramfiles/totn/20020329.totn.01.ram
      >
      > Drought / El Nino
      >
      > Guests:
      >
      > Donald A. Wilhite
      > * Director, National Drought Mitigation Center
      > * International Drought Information Center
      > * Associate Director and Professor, School of Natural Resource
      > Sciences
      > * University of Nebraska
      > * Lincoln, Nebraska
      >
      > Tony Barnston
      > * Head, Forecast Operations
      > * International Research Institute for Climate Prediction
      > * Lamont Dougherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University
      > * Palisades, New York
      >
      > Joseph Atkinson
      > * Professor, Department of Civil, Structural and Environmental
      > Engineering
      > * Director, Great Lakes Program University at Buffalo, State
      > University of New York
      > * Buffalo, New York
      >
      > East coast states from Maine to Georgia and western states from
      > Montana down through Texas are facing drought conditions. Climate
      > forecasters don't see much relief on the way. In this hour, we'll
      > take a look at the causes of the drought, whether or not there's an
      > El Nino connection, and the climate forecasts for the months ahead.
      > Plus, we'll hear how the drought is affecting one part of the
      country
      > -- the Great Lakes.
      >
      > +++++++++++++
      >
      > This is REALLY worth the listen. I bring this up because the
      opinions
      > of these researchers remind me of what perhaps traditionaly
      > forecaster would say about forecasts of El Nino. And I again say
      > chaos then, chaos now leads to a conclusion, wrongheaded, that
      fossil
      > fuel use is okay. It is biological modulation then, modulation
      now,
      > defect in feedback loops that allows me to rationally state that
      > there is a problem--as well as to make some preductions. Well, I
      > correctly disputed the El Nino call last year about this time right
      > here at this club/group and I am going to do it again this year.
      >
      > I will write this so it is unequivical. No El Nino. And it is
      EASY
      > to forecast this with the flaring peak over and the melting glacial
      > ice in the Southern Oceans. (Thanks B-1--you rule). That is
      critical
      > to any hurricane forecast.
      >
      > Now, let me talk about the drought. Particularly on the East Coast
      > and in the SW and Colorado flood plain. Great Lakes remain at
      record
      > lows like last year--haven't seen low levels like this since
      changes
      > to the Mississippi delta swamps in the 60s. This means there is NO
      > WAY there will be a NE coast landfall. It also means it is less
      > likely, but possible, for a NC landfall. The EPAC will continue to
      > see reduced overall activity AFTER the energy from the "El Nino"
      > winds of March dispates perhaps with another early large May storm.
      >
      > The no El Nino is consistant with this headline discussed here this
      > weekend:
      >
      > SCRIPPS SCIENTIST DISCOVERS WARMING TREND IN SOUTHERN OCEAN OVER
      THE
      > LAST 50 YEARS
      >
      > Decline in Antarctic sea ice, carbon dioxide storage, possible
      > implications
      > http://scrippsnews.ucsd.edu/pressreleases/gille_science_warm.html
      >
      >
      > As I have been saying now for some time, warmer Southern Ocean
      means
      > that it conducts a current better. Put another way, the water has a
      > higher specific conductivity. The general direction of current
      > (excepting the eddy by B-22) has inducted a current against cirrus
      > formation (EASTWARD) and that is why warmer ocean mean both melting
      > glaciers AND colder interior. Of course, where the oceans are
      warmer
      > there is a double effect of where the currents move WESTWARD there
      is
      > greater cirrus enhancement and extremes of flooding and so forth.
      > OTOH, where these warm waters melt ice fresh water capping has the
      > effect the other way, which is why I have been pretty confident
      about
      > no El Nino. That was the case from 12,500 to 7,500 years ago BP--no
      > El Nino. No El Nino means heavy hurricane activity per Dr. Gray's
      > stats. I will hook you up with Gray links if you doubt it.
      >
      > Warmer waters also mean melting hydrate ice, which means drought--
      > like the east coast. It also may be a biological loss that leads
      to
      > low hydrate activity. Which I think is the case w/ the N.
      Pacific.
      > Cold anomalies again dominate the north N. Pacific. Is this warmer
      > waters melting hydrates or 30,000 dams built in Asia over the past
      30
      > years culminated by Three Gorge's diversion in November 1997?
      Could
      > it be the ag changes that go with the hydrology changes as it
      relates
      > to the biosphere in the N. Pacific? Changes in moon earth
      > depressurization and tides? My estimate is it is the dams,
      > particularly the relocation of millions of people to the Yangtze
      > combined with warmer ocean temperatures and it has dramatically
      > depleted the hydrate activity in the northern N. Pacific.
      >
      > What does this have to do with hurricanes? Well, it is your Great
      > Lakes problem, drought in the western plains, and Rockies. This
      > impacts secondary hydrology and therefore impacts the biosphere
      where
      > hurricanes take place. Of greatest note is the Great Lake's
      drainage
      > and the NE coast.
      >
      > It is incredible to see this with the SST anomalies along the NE
      > coast:
      >
      > http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html
      >
      > SST anomalies are up for the 29th. Of interest also are the cold
      > anomalies off West Africa. This is as predicted with the new dams
      > built there in the past 5 years--really screwed up Dr. Gray's
      > forecast. Dams there SHIFT what should be spring rains and
      feedbacks
      > that maintain warmth. Cape Verde storms in particular get shut down
      > until much later in the season and then come on much stronger.
      There
      > is the problem of an Alberto, but that is related to the drought.
      > What happens is the cold anomalies off the NE coast cause really
      > strong coriolis driven WESTWARD winds to move to the south of the
      > cold anomalies. This inducts a strong current and causes over time
      a
      > cummulative warm patch where an Alberto like storm can form. With
      > flaring down, look for a long churning mid N. Atlantic storm end of
      > July or August.
      >
      > Flaring yesterday, for instance, was heavy but otherwise flaring
      has
      > started to be quiet. Quiet as a over all long term trend. SSTs and
      > rivers are really going to matter as we move away from the double
      > peak flaring cycle and are on its decelleration.
      >
      > On the 29th SST anomalie here in N. Cal you see slightly cold
      > anomalies compared to S. Cal w/ straight cold anomalies. That is
      > related to their drought there and very poor Gaia conditions.
      Cold
      > anomalies also dominate in the Gulf of California. That's the
      > drought in the Colorado flood plain and Gaia feeding back no cirrus
      > enhancement. I think this makes for continued drought conditions in
      > the monsoonal zone of the SW and also probably decreases the chance
      > for an Allison storm this spring.
      >
      > The drought in New York and the rest of the east coast will
      continue
      > and is continuing by the SST anomalies. Great Lake levels, again,
      are
      > at 30 year lows--just like last year. This will continue given
      > conditions in the N. Pacific. It is going to be very terrible on
      the
      > east coast this summer. Very bad. And forget about a hurricane
      > providing rain relief. Very unlikely.
      >
      > Let me now sum up in a nutshell some of the basics of my forecast.
      >
      > No El Nino. Very heavy. We will see named storms with an M and
      > perhaps an O. Shifted late. This is a key aspect of the dams,
      > particularly West Africa w/ Cape Verde storms and then the dams on
      > the Orinoco and Amazon and other South/Central American rivers.
      Note
      > new dams on Orinoco and Amazon and West Africa already giving cold
      > anomaly readings, especially West Africa. This is occurring right
      > now. By August the trend starts to reverse and by October the dams
      > bring Gaia feedbacks warm oceans just when conditions are most ripe
      > for storms. Very dangerous. It's your Mitch, Caracus, Kevin,
      > Michelle problem and it aint going away. If you get small flaring
      > event timed with this. Well . . . Mitch.
      >
      > Florida had black algae bloom and no flooding so far in
      Mississipi.
      > It's still early on that. We get some rain and flooding on the
      > Mississippi and that could change in the next few weeks, but as of
      > right now, the Mississippi input is the subsistance from years of
      > abuse and the man made lakes starting to show their age and the
      > swamps in the delta eroding away. 25 square miles per years is
      lost
      > to the GOM and that goes straight to the methanogens. Then there
      is
      > the weathering, higher CO2 disucssion we have had here and there
      you
      > go.
      >
      > The Florida bloom is related to the end of the drought and the
      fires
      > and all that bio material flowing to oceans. While the waters are
      > black with algae and fish aren't being caught, it is very strong
      > hydrate conditions that make Florida a target this year. So Florida
      > and Mississippi are somewhat different biologically this year. I am
      > not sure what that means yet for early GOM storm like Allison,
      except
      > that I suspect that we may see one more to the east of the
      > Mississippi. We will have another post flaring event storm that
      > historically has landfell to Texas, but I think we are talking
      about
      > more of a eastward track.
      >
      > (I would also be concerned about tornadic activity in the alley in
      > early May. Conditions are almost the same as 1999. )
      >
      > Anyway, the biggest news will be the drought on the east coast,
      which
      > as far as I can see will last AT LEAST another 3 months. And mean
      NO
      > land falls to the NE, consistant with the decrease of these storms
      > over the past 30 years as oceans have warmed against hydrate
      activity.
      >
      > All storms will continue to be in general stalling/flooding types,
      > with slower surface buzz sawing risks due to the lack of SOx
      > emissions from any volcanic event. Put another way, while I have my
      > eyes on Florida right now, no Andrew is coming to buzz saw things
      on
      > the ground. Storms will be more like Allison--low wind rainy
      things.
      >
      > Look for an early storm GOM storm, Alberto II in late July, and a
      > heavy shifted season, with most of the action further south then
      > historically seen.
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