761Florida Black Tide
- Apr 1, 2002Here is a link to a Satellite photo showing the black tide:
--- In methanehydrateclub@y..., pawnfart <no_reply@y...> wrote:
> It's April and so here goes. Parenthetically, last Friday on NPR's
> Talk of the Nation/Science Friday they talked about El Nino and the
> Drought / El Nino
> Donald A. Wilhite
> * Director, National Drought Mitigation Center
> * International Drought Information Center
> * Associate Director and Professor, School of Natural Resource
> * University of Nebraska
> * Lincoln, Nebraska
> Tony Barnston
> * Head, Forecast Operations
> * International Research Institute for Climate Prediction
> * Lamont Dougherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University
> * Palisades, New York
> Joseph Atkinson
> * Professor, Department of Civil, Structural and Environmental
> * Director, Great Lakes Program University at Buffalo, State
> University of New York
> * Buffalo, New York
> East coast states from Maine to Georgia and western states from
> Montana down through Texas are facing drought conditions. Climate
> forecasters don't see much relief on the way. In this hour, we'll
> take a look at the causes of the drought, whether or not there's an
> El Nino connection, and the climate forecasts for the months ahead.
> Plus, we'll hear how the drought is affecting one part of the
> -- the Great Lakes.
> This is REALLY worth the listen. I bring this up because the
> of these researchers remind me of what perhaps traditionaly
> forecaster would say about forecasts of El Nino. And I again say
> chaos then, chaos now leads to a conclusion, wrongheaded, that
> fuel use is okay. It is biological modulation then, modulation
> defect in feedback loops that allows me to rationally state that
> there is a problem--as well as to make some preductions. Well, I
> correctly disputed the El Nino call last year about this time right
> here at this club/group and I am going to do it again this year.
> I will write this so it is unequivical. No El Nino. And it is
> to forecast this with the flaring peak over and the melting glacial
> ice in the Southern Oceans. (Thanks B-1--you rule). That is
> to any hurricane forecast.
> Now, let me talk about the drought. Particularly on the East Coast
> and in the SW and Colorado flood plain. Great Lakes remain at
> lows like last year--haven't seen low levels like this since
> to the Mississippi delta swamps in the 60s. This means there is NO
> WAY there will be a NE coast landfall. It also means it is less
> likely, but possible, for a NC landfall. The EPAC will continue to
> see reduced overall activity AFTER the energy from the "El Nino"
> winds of March dispates perhaps with another early large May storm.
> The no El Nino is consistant with this headline discussed here this
> SCRIPPS SCIENTIST DISCOVERS WARMING TREND IN SOUTHERN OCEAN OVER
> LAST 50 YEARS
> Decline in Antarctic sea ice, carbon dioxide storage, possible
> As I have been saying now for some time, warmer Southern Ocean
> that it conducts a current better. Put another way, the water has a
> higher specific conductivity. The general direction of current
> (excepting the eddy by B-22) has inducted a current against cirrus
> formation (EASTWARD) and that is why warmer ocean mean both melting
> glaciers AND colder interior. Of course, where the oceans are
> there is a double effect of where the currents move WESTWARD there
> greater cirrus enhancement and extremes of flooding and so forth.
> OTOH, where these warm waters melt ice fresh water capping has the
> effect the other way, which is why I have been pretty confident
> no El Nino. That was the case from 12,500 to 7,500 years ago BP--no
> El Nino. No El Nino means heavy hurricane activity per Dr. Gray's
> stats. I will hook you up with Gray links if you doubt it.
> Warmer waters also mean melting hydrate ice, which means drought--
> like the east coast. It also may be a biological loss that leads
> low hydrate activity. Which I think is the case w/ the N.
> Cold anomalies again dominate the north N. Pacific. Is this warmer
> waters melting hydrates or 30,000 dams built in Asia over the past
> years culminated by Three Gorge's diversion in November 1997?
> it be the ag changes that go with the hydrology changes as it
> to the biosphere in the N. Pacific? Changes in moon earth
> depressurization and tides? My estimate is it is the dams,
> particularly the relocation of millions of people to the Yangtze
> combined with warmer ocean temperatures and it has dramatically
> depleted the hydrate activity in the northern N. Pacific.
> What does this have to do with hurricanes? Well, it is your Great
> Lakes problem, drought in the western plains, and Rockies. This
> impacts secondary hydrology and therefore impacts the biosphere
> hurricanes take place. Of greatest note is the Great Lake's
> and the NE coast.
> It is incredible to see this with the SST anomalies along the NE
> SST anomalies are up for the 29th. Of interest also are the cold
> anomalies off West Africa. This is as predicted with the new dams
> built there in the past 5 years--really screwed up Dr. Gray's
> forecast. Dams there SHIFT what should be spring rains and
> that maintain warmth. Cape Verde storms in particular get shut down
> until much later in the season and then come on much stronger.
> is the problem of an Alberto, but that is related to the drought.
> What happens is the cold anomalies off the NE coast cause really
> strong coriolis driven WESTWARD winds to move to the south of the
> cold anomalies. This inducts a strong current and causes over time
> cummulative warm patch where an Alberto like storm can form. With
> flaring down, look for a long churning mid N. Atlantic storm end of
> July or August.
> Flaring yesterday, for instance, was heavy but otherwise flaring
> started to be quiet. Quiet as a over all long term trend. SSTs and
> rivers are really going to matter as we move away from the double
> peak flaring cycle and are on its decelleration.
> On the 29th SST anomalie here in N. Cal you see slightly cold
> anomalies compared to S. Cal w/ straight cold anomalies. That is
> related to their drought there and very poor Gaia conditions.
> anomalies also dominate in the Gulf of California. That's the
> drought in the Colorado flood plain and Gaia feeding back no cirrus
> enhancement. I think this makes for continued drought conditions in
> the monsoonal zone of the SW and also probably decreases the chance
> for an Allison storm this spring.
> The drought in New York and the rest of the east coast will
> and is continuing by the SST anomalies. Great Lake levels, again,
> at 30 year lows--just like last year. This will continue given
> conditions in the N. Pacific. It is going to be very terrible on
> east coast this summer. Very bad. And forget about a hurricane
> providing rain relief. Very unlikely.
> Let me now sum up in a nutshell some of the basics of my forecast.
> No El Nino. Very heavy. We will see named storms with an M and
> perhaps an O. Shifted late. This is a key aspect of the dams,
> particularly West Africa w/ Cape Verde storms and then the dams on
> the Orinoco and Amazon and other South/Central American rivers.
> new dams on Orinoco and Amazon and West Africa already giving cold
> anomaly readings, especially West Africa. This is occurring right
> now. By August the trend starts to reverse and by October the dams
> bring Gaia feedbacks warm oceans just when conditions are most ripe
> for storms. Very dangerous. It's your Mitch, Caracus, Kevin,
> Michelle problem and it aint going away. If you get small flaring
> event timed with this. Well . . . Mitch.
> Florida had black algae bloom and no flooding so far in
> It's still early on that. We get some rain and flooding on the
> Mississippi and that could change in the next few weeks, but as of
> right now, the Mississippi input is the subsistance from years of
> abuse and the man made lakes starting to show their age and the
> swamps in the delta eroding away. 25 square miles per years is
> to the GOM and that goes straight to the methanogens. Then there
> the weathering, higher CO2 disucssion we have had here and there
> The Florida bloom is related to the end of the drought and the
> and all that bio material flowing to oceans. While the waters are
> black with algae and fish aren't being caught, it is very strong
> hydrate conditions that make Florida a target this year. So Florida
> and Mississippi are somewhat different biologically this year. I am
> not sure what that means yet for early GOM storm like Allison,
> that I suspect that we may see one more to the east of the
> Mississippi. We will have another post flaring event storm that
> historically has landfell to Texas, but I think we are talking
> more of a eastward track.
> (I would also be concerned about tornadic activity in the alley in
> early May. Conditions are almost the same as 1999. )
> Anyway, the biggest news will be the drought on the east coast,
> as far as I can see will last AT LEAST another 3 months. And mean
> land falls to the NE, consistant with the decrease of these storms
> over the past 30 years as oceans have warmed against hydrate
> All storms will continue to be in general stalling/flooding types,
> with slower surface buzz sawing risks due to the lack of SOx
> emissions from any volcanic event. Put another way, while I have my
> eyes on Florida right now, no Andrew is coming to buzz saw things
> the ground. Storms will be more like Allison--low wind rainy
> Look for an early storm GOM storm, Alberto II in late July, and a
> heavy shifted season, with most of the action further south then
> historically seen.
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