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  • Pawnfart
    Nov 1, 2001
      Do we have another Mitch? IMHO, yes.<br><br>ENSO
      conditions<br><br><a href=http://www.vision.net.au/~daly/elnino.htm target=new>http://www.vision.net.au/~daly/elnino.htm</a><br>Check out Daly's site for daily wind patterns of
      ENSO--note that La Nina winds are occurring now and
      historically La Nina equates to more hurricane activity. This
      is another clue about flaring patterns as well, as
      last week when we had El Nino winds there was some
      pretty good flaring activity.<br><br>Conditions continue
      to look VERY dangerous, BTW, w/ Michelle IMHO, for
      Central America. Belize already lost most of its banana
      crop w/ Iris, and if this storm grows and continues to
      curve west eventually south like Mitch--we are going to
      see thousands dead and tens of billions in damage for
      these poor countries there. Now why wouldn't we tell
      them that dams on the Orinoco would hurt them up so
      bad, even after Mitch had given it to them? Could it
      be to keep the storms down there? I can't believe
      our best scientists aren't seeing this.<br><br>This
      time of year SSTs are starting to get too cold in the
      GOM to have a really big storm do much of anything
      before it gets sheared apart--Gabrielle was near the end
      of the GOM season, really. But w/ delayed sed and
      flow down the Orinoco, a later storm is insulated in
      the W. Carribean where it doesn't face the wave
      forward speeds moving from Cape Verde--and you get these
      bombs. <br><br>Meanwhile, much of the SE continues to
      suffer from drought--and I see no reason why after a
      Central American landfall this storm won't get carried
      east real fast extra tropical like Mitch. I may be
      wrong, but the longer this stays stationary and the
      bigger it gets, the more likely it will curve west
      despite ambiant wind conditions . . .
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