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2502Re: Solar Activity Report for 8/11/05

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  • Mike Doran
    Aug 13, 2005
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      Don't know how real time you are but if you can check out these links
      what you will see is that the IR link shows a healthy blob of
      convection BUT NO EYE. If you look below at the NHC link the wind
      swath is pretty good HOWEVER that only describes the bottom of
      coupling between ionosphere and ocean, not what the ionosphere is
      doing. Then look at the Long Paddock link and the SOI fell back
      negative somewhat. Again, I am not looking at space weather, just
      what regional conductivities are doing to the cloud microphyiscs.


      Now, what the difference is between a longer range SOI reading and a
      short range one is that the SOI over a short period of time is mostly
      about roiling and depressurization in that region--out gassing of
      CO2, which impacts momentary conductivies in the region. However, if
      a wind between Darwin and Tahiti is SUSTAINED then you have moving
      salt spray that starts to have an INDUCTION meaning to the impedence
      values. In other words the sustained wind itself starts to have
      electrical meaning and sometimes that overcomes, in terms of global
      electrical circuit patterns, the significance of outgassing. You
      see, the back and forth of the SOI can also be mostly about
      discharging and recharging. Of course, such conductivity meaning can
      occur in ALL the oceans, and such induction meaning can occur in all
      the oceans, and SST changes, such as upwelling events, can also occur
      in all of the oceans. But the Pacific is the largest expanse of ITCZ
      and so electrical changes in the Pacific have significant global
      significance . . .

      This year was unique because while we may have had many features in
      the Pacific electrically similar to an El Nino, the tidal wave's
      impact on the conductivities in the Indian Ocean did not allow it to
      form. So if you have some correlations with solar activity that
      would have been more predesposed to an El Nino--it again points to
      how important it is what the earth DOES with those inputs. I am not
      saying that the solar inputs are not critically important, but rather
      discussing mechanism. Ultimately, this is how you will connect
      weather with climate, and how you reasonably explain to the
      barotropical people how you are seeing over their event horizon.

      So presently with the SOI falling there is less ability for the
      tropical storm Irene to see a capacitive coupling from the ionosphere
      down and the storm becomes less connected to the ITCZ and has a less
      westward tendency as the ITCZ. Thermodynamic principals would have
      it seeking the colder places such as Greenland, and so it is no
      surprise that the models have it moving north.

      But I still think the Carolinas are going to get hit, as there was
      Fabian before they were hit two years ago.

      There is a George Karlin joke about women, asking if five twos equals
      a ten. I predicted 2 major fish storms and now we have three strong
      tropical storms which were fish. We are getting closer to the time
      when the Carolinas have the most to be concerned. However, the
      patterns of strikes in the CONUS seem to a little more north with
      things so I don't know. I shouldn't second guess my earlier forecast
      as it is based on the biological things I see then. We shall
      see . . .

      --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, space1weather
      <no_reply@y...> wrote:
      > --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "Mike Doran"
      > <narodaleahcim@a...> wrote:
      > > Jim,
      > >
      > > We have a rising SOI--and Irene probably headed near you. No
      > doubt
      > > you will get wave rain features from this storm. As in you get
      > the
      > > opposite
      > >
      > > 9-Aug-2005 1014.11 1014.55 -12.50 -1.45 -5.12
      > > 10-Aug-2005 1014.01 1014.00 -9.70 -2.05 -5.25
      > > 11-Aug-2005 1013.99 1013.10 -4.40 -2.57 -5.29
      > > 12-Aug-2005 1014.91 1013.20 0.50 -3.18 -5.13
      > >
      > Mike,
      > I like to look at where the 30 day average is going or maybe even
      > the 4 or 5 day smoothed. I will consider the daily average of a
      > different anomaly (-/+) if it is very high...at least 20-25...The
      > day has been moving negative as you well know.
      > Washington DC OCM Bob Ryan, of NBC, said Reagan National was at 86
      > degrees at 11pm last night ....Very hot already this morning.
      > Jim
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