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2377Solar Activity Report for 1/1/05

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  • David
    Jan 1 11:23 PM
      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      The new year started off with quite a literal bang as sunspot region
      unleashed a powerful X-class flare. You might remember that this same
      region produced a quarted of M-class flares a few days ago. It is
      possible we could receive a glancing blow from the CME's associated
      with a couple of the M-class flares within the next 48 hours, and then
      from the CME associated with the C-class flare. Additionally, the
      earth has entered a high-speed coronal hole solar wind stream, and the
      solar wind speed has surpassed the 700 km/sec mark. The
      interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) has turned south, which usually
      has the effect of enhancing geomagnetic activity. Skywatchers in the
      higher latitudes should keep an eye out for aurora over the next few

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 51
      SFI : 99
      A index : 15
      K index : 4

      Solar wind speed : 738.3 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 2.0 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 1.5 nPa

      IMF : 10.4 nT
      IMF Orientation : 7.2 nT South

      GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B1

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R3 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 715 may
      produce M-class and isolated X-class flares.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels all
      three days. Active conditions are expected on 2-3 January from the
      effects of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed solar wind stream,
      and from potential effects of CME shocks associated with the M-class
      flares observed 30 and 31 December. Isolated minor storming mid-day on
      3 January and into 4 January is possible from a CME shock associated
      with today's X-class flare. Activity should subside late on 4 January
      to quiet to unsettled levels.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      01-Jan-2005 0031Z X1.7
      31-Dec-2004 1445Z M1.2