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2149Re: 2004 Hurricane Forecast

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  • mike@usinter.net
    Apr 1 11:52 PM
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      --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "David" <b1blancer1@e...>
      wrote:
      >
      > > Third, a dam was constructed in the Carolinas last year
      >
      > Where??

      Mid S. Carolina. Don't recall the river. It was a reconstruction
      project.

      >
      > > John Daly's solar statistician Landstiedt (I probably do not
      spell
      > > his name correctly) also calls for nothing interesting from a
      solar
      > > standpoint, as in El Nino.
      >
      > That's true for the solar outlook. We're in the declining phase of
      > the sunspot cycle, so you can expect relatively quiet conditions
      for a
      > few more years yet. Look for the cycle to bottom out in early 2007,
      > although there will likely be short bursts of acctivity along the
      way.

      We aren't at the valley, either. In terms of signal noise, there is
      still enough from the flaring events we have to cause an
      amplification required to bring a storm. A larger factor would
      actually be SOx because w/ a good volcanic event, the SOx drops the
      phase change temperature of the cirrus and you don't get separation
      of charges--and a thunderstorm near the magnetic poles is going to
      have WAY more electrical significance than the solar wind.


      >
      > > Nothing in this
      > > picture prevents another Carolina landfall. Indeed, with the
      > > winter's fires and dust storms in West Africa and dams there,
      > > upwelling currently with cold SSTs, we could have an extremely
      wet CV
      > > season off the African coast, and waves coming off either to
      energies
      > > existing CV storms or create another one.
      > >
      >
      > Are you talking about an Outer Banks brusher, something that comes a
      > bit deeper in like Floyd or Dean, or a direct hit like Hugo?


      That's a good question, but let me try to explain what we know and
      how you may be able to answer your own question. Electrically, the
      Gulf Stream is extremely warm--and full of life. Therefore, it
      presents a conductive path that a storm could follow--if a storm was
      just merely it's local winds. But indeed a tropical storm is a
      regional EVENT where thunderstorms a thousand miles away are
      connected to its behavior. And a tropical storm is global to the
      extent that it begins to couple so strongly between ionosphere and
      ocean that it begins to be influenced by earth's EMF. In the case of
      Isabel, Fabian had two weaks beforehand gone NW out to the European
      node of the earth EMF. This caused that area to be like charged as
      Fabian, and created a relative opposing sign to the node over Hudson
      Bay. Therefore, the storm began to plot to North America--not
      because of winds but because of the earth EMF. A fair weather strip
      connected the GOM to the Carolina coast, and there were some moon
      roiling things going on, too, but it is enough to say that given the
      hydrates off the coast of the Carolinas, the Gulf Stream, AND the
      condition of the earth EMF, there was no other place for the voltages
      of the storm to go. That is why once it landfell there were about
      30k strikes pointing right to Hudson Bay from the GOM.

      The pattern is almost the same I have been observing, and nothing is
      there to tell me that we can't have a similar pattern. Of course,
      the moon gravity wave can happen at a different date of the season,
      but from what Steve MacDonald was saying, we should get a similar
      gravity wave from the moon as last year.

      Because of the lack of volcanic activity, I would suspect another
      rain making storm, as SOx reduces the phase change temperatures of
      the cirrus.
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