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2074Solar Activity Report for 1/2/04

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  • David
    Jan 1, 2004
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      G-1 geomagnetic storm conditions have been observed within the last 24
      hours as the Earth is inside of a high speed solar wind stream coming
      from a small coronal hole. The interplanetary magnetic field has held
      onto a weak but persistent south-pointing orientation for the last
      couple of days, adding a bit of enhancement to the activity. There is
      at least a small chance that aurora could be spotted in the higher
      latitudes. Sunspot region 528 got off an M1.0 class flare on the
      31st. It is now close to rotating over the western limb of the solar
      disk. Two new sunspot regions, 534 and 536, look like they have some
      signsof activity. They could be a potential source for future
      significantflares. Look for the current active conditions to last
      though theend of tomorrow. After that, we could be seeing some more
      activity on or about the 4th coming from another coronal hole.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 47
      SFI : 116
      A index : 29
      K index : 3

      Solar wind speed : 535.8 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 4.5 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 2.8 nPa

      IMF : 5.8 nT
      IMF Orientation : 2.7 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
      reaching the G1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be low. Regions 534 and 536 are expected
      to produce C-class flares. There is a slight chance that they may
      produce isolated M-class flares.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm
      levels. High speed stream effects are expected to produce unsettled to
      active conditions early on 02 January, then diminish by the end of the
      day. Quiet to unsettled levels expected on 03 January. A larger
      transequatorial coronal hole is expected on 04 January with active to
      isolated major storm levels possible.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      31-Dec-2003 1824Z M1.0