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1835Solar Activity Report for 6/30/03

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  • David
    Jun 30, 2003
      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      The solar wind speed remains very close to the 700 km/sec tonight,
      although the solar wind density is a bit lower than I would have
      expected. Nevertheless, an aurora watch is still in effect, and G-1
      geomagnetic storm conditions have been observed within the last 24
      hours. The high solar wind speeds are expected to last about another
      day or so, and then will start to taper off. Although sunspot region
      375 is quite large, spanning more than 10 Earth diameters from end to
      end, it has been quiet thusfar and hasn't generated any significant
      flares. For awhile earlier today and late yesterday, the background
      X-ray flux had been rising, and it looked as if we might be in for
      some action. However, the X-ray flux has since decreased, and only
      some minor C-class flares have been observed.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 159
      SFI : 128
      A index : 24
      K index : 2

      Solar wind speed : 698.5 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 1.1 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.9 nPa

      IMF : 4.4 nT
      IMF Orientation : 2.3 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
      reaching the G1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be mostly low, but with a chance for an
      isolated M-class event sometime during the next three days. Regions
      396 and 397 are the most likely sources for energetic flare activity.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to slightly active
      for the next 24 hours. The high speed wind stream is expected to
      slowly subside. Predominantly unsettled levels should prevail during
      the second and third days, but there will be a chance for isolated
      active periods, especially at the higher latitudes.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :