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1560Important bio/EMF marker

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  • Mike Doran <mike@usinter.net>
    Jan 1, 2003

      Another HUGE HUGE HUGE bio marker that allowed me to rougly predict,
      as you recall, the first storm of the TS this year and the wet
      conditions for Florida--using very CRUDE data. This data indicates a
      forcing so powerful that other models powered by our most extreme
      super computers cannot hang with the predictive ability for it to
      work. It is like predicting dew in someone's front lawn--10 years
      from now--based on the fact you planted a tree there and underneath
      where the tree will grow is where you predict the dew.

      The Black Algae is on the WEST coast of Florida. So we have a similar
      situtation as last year--just a little further north--so watch how
      that difference changes Doran wave patterns compared to last year.

      This clearly means that there is less chance of an early W. GOM storm-
      -an Allison and more chance of an early E. GOM storm -- which is also
      consistant with the fair weather GOC and the dipole conditions from
      GOC to GOM from a large scale regional standpoint. Last year that
      meant a number of ULL features where the ULL regressed from the GOM
      toward and through Texas before rising north, bringing very heavy
      rains and severe to Florida during the early TS season.

      There is NO QUESTION this is a CURRENT situation. IOW it is impacting
      weather/climate right now. The strike activity on Monday over the GOM
      and Mississippi delta was some of the strongest I have seen all YEAR!

      This causes thermals that pull down surface winds from the north and
      bring fronts to Florida. IOW, the upper level infra red values
      increase so much that air rises, creates surface lows, and that draws
      south cold air masses--which run to Florida this time of year. It
      clearly increases the risks of severe weather.

      Given warm SSTs in the tropical central Pacific, and the 800 level
      CME we had early this week, and an SOI that went POSITIVE for today
      (8) from a negative value, bringing induction for cirrus in the
      tropical Pacific, it is no wonder such a storm commenced in the GOM.