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1486Solar Activity Report for 11/11/02

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  • David
    Nov 11, 2002
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      The CME from the M-4 flare struck home on Nov 11, and not a whole lot
      happened. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was pointing north when
      the CME arrived, which pretty much put a lid on any significant
      geomagnetic activity. The solar wind speed is still over the 600
      km/sec mark after peaking at nearly 700 earlier today. With the
      elevated solar wind speed, some aurora are still at least an outside
      possibility, and an aurora watch remains in effect. Look for some
      coronal hole effects to be arriving here on or about the 16th.
      Sunspot region 180 remains a flare-producer, although it is close to
      the western limb of the solar disk.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 197
      SFI : 185
      A index : 10
      K index : 1

      Solar wind speed : 618.3 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 7.9 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 5.1 nPa

      IMF : 9.0 nT
      IMF Orientatiin : 2.8 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Solar radiation
      storms reaching the S1 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R1
      level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 180 remains the most
      likely source of M-class flares and Region 191 appears capable of an
      M-flare as well.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the
      next few hours. The arrival of a shock from the M4/CME flare that
      occurred on 09 November is still possible. Active to storm conditions
      are possible on 12 November if this CME impacts the Earth. SOHO-LASCO
      images received after the three-day geomagnetic forecast was finalized
      suggest that another CME was associated with the M1/1n flare mentioned
      in Part IA. Consequently, the numerical and probability forecasts for
      the third day in Parts V and VI below may be modified in tomorrow's
      forecast product.

      (See this link for all the things the above forecast is referencing :
      http://solar.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/RSGA.txt )

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      11-Nov-2002 1620Z M1.8
      11-Nov-2002 0733Z M2.9
      10-Nov-2002 0321Z M2.4