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1480Solar activity Report for 11/9/02

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  • David
    Nov 9, 2002
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      ** Solar Radiation Storm In Progress **
      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      Sunspot region 180 woke up. It fired off a M-4 flare this morning,
      and send a massive proton barrage towards Earth, triggering an S-2
      (moderate) solar radiation storm, which is still in progress. The
      solar wind density is high tonight, although the speed isn't really
      elevated much. At one time, the solar wind density was up over the 30
      proton/cc mark. The flare looked to have a somewhat lopsided full
      halo CME associated with it, which should arrive sometime Monday or
      Tuesday. Thus, an aurora watch is in effect. As I write this, the K
      index has jumped up to 5, which is minor geomagnetic storm level. The
      Interplanetary Magnetic Field has a north-pointing orientation right
      now, which tends to supress geomagnetic activity. That could change,
      however, at any time. Rgeion 180 followed up the M-4 flare with an
      M-2 flare later on Saturday, but no real data is available about that
      one yet. The coronal hole I mentioned in my last report is making its
      way across the solar disk, and will be a factor later on.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 174
      SFI : 191
      A index : 6
      K index : 5

      Solar wind speed : 372.7 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 10.5 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 3.6 nPa

      IMF : 17.1 nt
      IMF Orientation : 10.1 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Solar radiation
      storms reaching the S2 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R1
      level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be moderate.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Solar radiation
      storms reaching the S2 level are expected. Radio blackouts reaching
      the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 180 is the
      most likely source of additional M-flares.

      Geomagnetic actviity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next
      24-36 hours. Active conditions are expected late on 11 November in
      response to the M4/CME which occurred today. The greater than 10 MeV
      proton event is expected to continue.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      09-Nov-2002 1323Z M4.6
      10-Nov-2002 0320Z M2.8 (estimated)