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Re: Lilypads

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  • Eric Hunting
    The Lilypad design is visually impressive but it s descriptions imply the use of construction methods, materials, and technologies which do not as yet exist,
    Message 1 of 4 , Feb 2, 2009
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      The Lilypad design is visually impressive but it's descriptions imply
      the use of construction methods, materials, and technologies which do
      not as yet exist, hence the projection to a hundred years in the
      future for its creation. This, unfortunately, will be far too late for
      the climate refugees it is intended for as these people are already
      being produced and will account for a migration of a couple billion
      people, by some estimates, within a matter of decades. Because this
      design concept is so speculative, there is no possibility of putting
      any plausible price tag on it.

      But we don't have to wait until the future for this concept to be
      feasible and we can, in fact, put a general price tag on such floating
      marine real estate today; $1000 per square meter, declining with
      scale, vertical structural height (ten storeys base potential, which
      should drop net cost to something under $500 per square meter, but
      with much greater heights possible). shift to on-board construction
      and then materials production, and a slow decline for incremental
      improvements in production productivity with experience. That's about
      what it costs to build this same thing in a less architecturally
      elaborate form using known current marine construction technology. We
      also know how much it's primary support systems and basis of
      industrial production -OTECs- cost; around $200 million dollars per
      100mw plant. Personnel costs remain an open question that is
      complicated by the particular community models a colony of the sort my
      employ (some communities could have very different personal
      compensation models besides simple money) but _theoretical_ export
      industrial productivity is estimated in the area of one billion
      dollars annually per OTEC with 2000 hectare mariculture area. There
      are a lot of unknowns to work out in terms of costs simply because of
      newness, but the basic feasibility is clear. And I have suggested,
      albeit within the limits of my crude illustrative abilities, what such
      a realistic scalable version of a lilypad-like colony looks like;

      http://images1.wikia.nocookie.net/tmp2/images/1/12/AquariusColony-1.jpg

      In my recent Buckminster Fuller Challenge entry, I've suggested a
      quarter scale proof-of-concept project would cost about 3 billion
      dollars. This includes prototype hydrogen-fueled shipping (which
      accounts for about a billion of that cost). Full scale could be in the
      area of 10 billion dollars up-front, but absolute cost is still a
      blurry proposition with the employ of incremental growth. In other
      words. we don't have to create these things all at once. We can grow
      them over protracted periods of time from small facilities which build-
      in the discounts for incremental productivity improvements with
      construction and operation experience, but still can't too well
      predict them because they are trail-and-error experience based. This,
      of course, is the basic Aquarius strategy as described in TMP2,
      starting colonies from coastal seed settlements of just a dozen or so
      residences.

      Eric Hunting
      erichunting@...



      On Jan 19, 2009, at 9:17 AM, Luf-team@yahoogroups.com wrote:

      > Re: Lilypads
      > Posted by: "ILYA" ilya_7@... ilya_7Sun Jan 18, 2009 9:46 pm
      > (PST)
      >
      > Anyone know what the price is for constructing a single Lilypad,
      > including research and development costs and service costs, i.e. you
      > need people to run the Lilypad, to ensure that food is delivered to
      > stores and/or houses, that the power grid is functioning properly,
      > that water is made available to all, that....and how many people out
      > of 50,000 would be required to be full time employees? I could try
      > getting the funding for it, but I need to know all of the expenses,
      > and the minimum population required to run the Lilypad. I also need
      > to know the exact calculations involved in figuring out these
      > numbers and anything possible that can go wrong. A list of possible
      > patents would also be appreciative. I mean it looks amazing, and the
      > technology looks feasible, but not a whole lot of millionaires, nor
      > most of their business partners, are eco-friendly, I'm one of the
      > few; so in order to get this thing funded, we really need all the
      > exact data. And even then I
      > cannot make any guarantees. I cannot even say the chance of success
      > until I see the numbers, but one promise I can make, is that I will
      > keep this group informed of all the progress that's going on.
      >
      > "Those who crave power will never attain happiness, for that is the
      > infinity of power"
      > "Life, like driving, is a skill. Learn it well, or you shall never
      > ride it again!"
      > "Follow your dreams, they are closer than you think!!!"
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