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Fwd: CrisisWatch No.39, 1 November 2006

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  • Constance Kosuda
    International Crisis Group wrote: From: International Crisis Group Subject: CrisisWatch No.39,
    Message 1 of 1 , Nov 1, 2006
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      International Crisis Group <notification@...> wrote:
      From: "International Crisis Group" <notification@...>
      Subject: CrisisWatch No.39, 1 November 2006
      To:
      Date: Wed, 1 Nov 2006 17:54:20 +0100

      CRISISWEBNEWS New CrisisWatch bulletin

      New CrisisWatch bulletin from the International Crisis Group


      01/11/2006

      CrisisWatch No.39, 1 November 2006
      Thirteen actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated in October 2006, according to the new issue of CrisisWatch,* released today.
      Conflict threatened to engulf much of the Horn of Africa, as instability in Darfur continued to spill across Sudan’s borders and Somalia’s civil war risked escalating into a region-wide war involving rivals Ethiopia and Eritrea.
      Israeli incursions into Palestinian population centers intensified, while increasingly strained relations between Fatah and Hamas led to factional clashes in the Occupied Territories. Sectarian violence and insurgent attacks worsened again in Iraq, with U.S. forces sustaining their highest monthly death toll in two years. North Korea conducted its first nuclear test, raising fears of a new arms race in east Asia.
      An interim government appointed in the lead-up to January elections in Bangladesh was met with violent protests, while there were fears of an imminent coup in Fiji. A constitutional referendum in Serbia prompted accusations of massive irregularities by opposition groups and observers. The situation also deteriorated in the Central African Republic, Chad, the Philippines and Sri Lanka.
      Voting passed off mostly peacefully in the second round of the Democratic Republic of Congo’s presidential elections, but serious concerns remain about the potential for violence when results are released in mid-November.
      Two situations showed improvement in October. In Northern Ireland, three days of talks in St. Andrews resulted in a timetable for return to devolved power-sharing by March 2007. And the U.S. announced it would ease a 15-year arms embargo in Haiti, giving President Préval a vote of confidence. Kidnappings in the country declined this month and efforts to disarm gangs moved forward.
      For November 2006, CrisisWatch identifies Bangladesh, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Fiji and Somalia as Conflict Risk Alerts, or situations at particular risk of new or significantly escalated conflict in the coming month.
      OCTOBER 2006 TRENDS
      Deteriorated Situations
      Bangladesh, Central African Republic, Chad, Ethiopia, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Fiji, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Territories, North Korea, Philippines, Serbia, Somalia, Sri Lanka
      Improved Situations
      Haiti, Northern Ireland (UK)

      Unchanged Situations
      Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Angola, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Burundi, Chechnya (Russia), China (internal), Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Georgia, Guinea, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Mali, Moldova, Montenegro, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Pakistan, Peru, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, Somaliland (Somalia), Sudan, Syria,
      Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Zimbabwe
      NOVEMBER 2006 WATCHLIST
      Conflict Risk Alerts
      Bangladesh, Democratic Republic of Congo, Fiji, Somalia
      *NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.
      Search current and all past editions of CrisisWatch by using the CrisisWatch database.
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