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Re: [learningfromeachother] Lucas: What we can do regarding pandemic flu

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  • kayiwa fred
    thanks alot for the advise am also advising others that they should always be alet personary am keeping poutry along my education but ihave not seen hapening
    Message 1 of 4 , Dec 17, 2006
      thanks alot for the advise
      am also advising others that they should always be
      personary am keeping poutry along my education
      but ihave not seen hapening to my farm but at least in
      northen part of my country it hapened and the
      neibouring country killing thousands of birds
      and now am reading in news papers here always and
      radios all media satations that we should always keep
      alert with this bird flu
      always dont eat died chicken when you have not kiled
      it yourself
      dont eat infected chircken
      use gloves when serving them
      and may prevention you should always inquire
      --- ms@... wrote:

      > Lucas Gonzalez Santa Cruz (Ph.D & M.D. !!) alerted
      > us in June 2005 that there
      > is a very real - almost certain - risk that our
      > world will face a pandemic
      > flu rather soon. This is because the bird flu that
      > we are now hearing about
      > will naturally mutate until it can easily spread
      > from human to human. Flu
      > spreads very easily. This flu will be different
      > because it will be new,
      > poorly adapted to us, and so it will kill more of us
      > than it might like to.
      > What we don't know is whether it will be a "small"
      > pandemic (1 million
      > deaths) or a "giant" pandemic (more than 100 million
      > deaths).
      > As independent thinkers, this is one more
      > opportunity to "care about
      > thinking". In this case, to think ahead. What
      > seems most useful is to deal
      > with the worst possibilities, and the most distant
      > possibilities, because
      > that's where our thinking can have the most real
      > effect. So, for example, if
      > people know some basic information about pandemic
      > flu, it can make a life or
      > death difference:
      > - most of the sick people survive if they can get
      > enough fluids
      > - they will be too weak to take the fluids
      > themselves, and they will need a
      > friend to drip the fluids for them into their mouth
      > - people should avoid contact with each other during
      > a pandemic, and be
      > prepared to scatter in smaller groups
      > I imagine that the biggest impact we can have is in
      > Africa, which seems to
      > get most neglected. Pamela McLean is leading our
      > MyFoodStory team on
      > Poultry, LearningFromEachOther and
      > MultiBandwidthInterfaces. So my feeling
      > is that poultry farmers are a group that are
      > naturally interested in having
      > the best information regarding bird flu and not be
      > victims of superstition.
      > The vast majority of people will NOT get bird flu
      > from birds! They will get
      > it from people. So poultry farmers have an interest
      > to spread good
      > information.
      > Some concrete issues in Africa I imagine might
      > include having sensible ways
      > to break up the children in the larger orphanages or
      > schools so they can live
      > in into smaller groups . And to make sure that
      > people have essentials for a
      > two month period or so. Perhaps there is a way that
      > outsiders could invest
      > in such stores?
      > Also, as a mathematician I can say that even a small
      > slow of the spread of
      > the disease (by taking care to avoid contagion) can
      > cut down dramatically on
      > the overall number of people who get sick and also
      > on the shock to our social
      > services. So every little bit we do here can make a
      > dramatic difference. We
      > could save 1,000 lives.
      > Let's think, how can "Learning from each other" be
      > relevant here? Pamela,
      > what do you think?
      > Andrius
      > Andrius Kulikauskas
      > Minciu Sodas
      > http://www.ms.lt
      > ms@...
      > ----------------------------
      > AndriusKulikauskas: Lucas, great links! What do you
      > think it be useful that
      > we do? We have some resources and interest, and some
      > direction - especially
      > in Africa. What might you recommend as key?
      > Especially in terms of pilot
      > projects that we can try and learn from. Perhaps
      > about emergency preparedness
      > in general. Maybe some forms of investment (such as
      > pre-giving) that can be
      > released in the event of an emergency? Maybe some
      > kind of viral learning that
      > we can spread? Or a network of people who know how
      > to get and spread reliable
      > information? The latter seems most relevant to
      > Pamela McLean's MyFoodStory
      > team for "poultry" and "learning from each other"
      > and "multi-bandwidth
      > interfaces". Peace and greetings from Istanbul,
      > Turkey!
      > ----------------------------
      > Lucas Gonzalez Santa Cruz:
      > What do I think would be useful that some people in
      > or near MSL's network(s)
      > do? Please accept that I don't know, really. I'll
      > think out loud in case that
      > helps. And please feel free to ask for specifics.
      > * I feel a pandemic is inevitable at some point
      > in time. I try and think
      > it could be indefinitely averted by humans widely
      > and quickly changing what
      > we do, but even if we reduce probabilities I very
      > much doubt we could move
      > faster than the virus. It's currently a race among
      > species, and I don't see
      > us moving fast enough. That's why I tend to look at
      > it in terms of
      > mitigation, not prevention. But I'll try both in my
      > mind and see where that
      > takes me.
      > * Daydreaming about "averting a pandemic", we
      > humans would have to do a
      > number of things. Keep in mind these are not my
      > present "recomendations" (as
      > if I could make any!), because I really feel we
      > should devote our energies to
      > something else. But anyway, here I go:
      > o First, we might want to try diminishing
      > contact between species
      > that are able to carry the virus. Feeding chicken
      > waste to pigs is not really
      > a wise thing to do. (Prof Chan's ways are so much
      > better from many points of
      > view, animal health and human health included.)
      > Handling animals with
      > apropriate precautions (I don't know how, exactly;
      > not my field at all) might
      > also be wise; children hugging chickens is probably
      > not very wise. All in all,
      > we want the virus to stay in other species if at all
      > possible.
      > o Second, if humans do get the virus, we
      > want to detect that
      > situation as fast as possible, in order to treat the
      > ill and very importantly
      > in order to protect human contacts so that the
      > bird-to-human virus doesn't
      > have much of a chance to become human-to-human. This
      > may be unavoidable, but
      > if we detect it then the World Health Organisation
      > may be able to move
      > antivirals and create what they call an "antiviral
      > blanket". It's not likely
      > that we'll be able to do this in all places where
      > this is needed. If people
      > do the right thing 100% all over Africa but with low
      > "compliance" say in
      > Indonesia, then the World would get a pandemic.
      > o Other than preventing b2h (my "first"
      > point) and detecting b2h to
      > avoid h2h (my "second" point), I currently see no
      > other things we could do to
      > minimise the chance of a pandemic emerging. And once
      > it emerges, then we are
      > into "mitigation mode".
      > * Now, thinking about "mitigation", we're
      > learning about a few things we
      > can and should do. I'll summarise them here, but
      > there may be more details
      > that either I forget right now or that are being
      > thought openly by experts
      > around the world.
      > o First, human respiratory networks are
      > what experts call "free
      > scale" (I think). This means a relatively small
      > number of people are
      > responsible (not morally responsible, but physically
      > they act as springboards
      > for the virus) for a disproportionate number of
      > secondary cases. With AIDS,
      > this would be people who have many couples. With flu
      > (common flu, and
      > assumedly also pandemic flu) this would be children:
      > they get together in
      > huge numbers where there are schools, they don't
      > control their manners as
      > well as adults, and the shed more virus and for
      > longer. This means that the
      > primary mitigation strategy is thought to be closing
      > schools.
      === message truncated ===

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