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31556Honduras General Election Analysis Nov.24th

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  • Cort Greene
    Nov 3, 2013

      Killings and Attempted Killings in Honduras, from May 2012 - to the Present, Linked to Electoral Process

      As the November 24, 2013 General Elections approach in Honduras, a discussion of human rights violations surrounding the electoral process is paramount in understanding the historical and political context in which 
      the elections will take place. 
      This report is intended to promote that discussion by providing a list of killings and armed attacks against candidates, party and campaign leaders, and their families since May 2012, six months prior to the November 
      2012 Primary Elections. 

      The purpose is to draw attention to the context of violence, insecurity and apparently 
      politically motivated killings that are occurring in the lead up to the 2013 General 

      Read complete report here:


      Thursday, October 24, 2013

      Last Polls in Honduran Presidential Election: Dead Heat

      In Honduras, it is illegal to poll the last month before the presidential election. 

      Today El Heraldo published the results of the latest, and last, CID Gallup poll in the presidential race.

      Their headline: At one month before the elections, JOH one point advantage over Xiomara.

      Our headline: Honduran Presidential Election Enters Final Stage in a Statistical Tie.

      Based on polling conducted October 6-15, the CID Gallup poll reportedly finds voters who intend to vote breaking 28% for the Partido Nacional (Juan Orlando Hernández), 27% for LIBRE (Xiomara Castro), 17% for the Partido Liberal (Mauricio Villeda), and 9% for the Anti-Corruption Party (Salvador Nasrallah), with 3% each for the candidacies of Andres Pavon and Romeo Vasquez Velasquez, and a reported 3% "do not know/declined to respond".

      The absolute numbers in these Gallup polls are always higher than those in other polls, apparently because they are not including the voters who say they may not vote. The trends are clear when we look at the Gallup polling data over time: Nasralla continues to slide down; Villeda has drawn a small number of voters as the Anti-Corruption party declined; but the main increase tracking the decreases in the Anti-Corruption Party is in the institutional Partido Nacional.

      There is evidence in this latest poll, as there was previously in the fine grained data from CESPAD, that party affiliation is breaking down. While the Liberal Party was identified as the party affiliation by 22% of those polled, Villeda draws only 17% of the vote. Similarly, while Hernández has a reported 28% of the intended vote, 35% of those polled identified as Partido Nacional members.

      CID Gallup doesn't let us speculate on where those other Partido Liberal and Nacional voters are going; CESPAD, though, showed in August that 23% of Liberal Party voters then favored LIBRE, as did 7.6% of Partido Nacional voters not favoring Hernández, with almost the same number then planning to vote for Nasrallah.

      El Heraldo's story reports on a number of other polls, some of which, like Paradigma, we have been steadily tracking. These minor polls range from one by Opinión y Analísis that has Hernández at 28.1%, Castro at 23%, and Villeda at 20.1%; to TecniMerk showing Castro winning with 31.9%, Hernández at 22.8%, and Villeda at 13.2%.

      While these two minor polls should be questioned due to the wide margins of victory they project, not seen in other polls, they are at least consistent with the other polling that shows LIBRE and the Partido Nacional running head to head. A third minor poll mentioned by El Heraldo, from a firm called Inteligence, seems anything but credible, as it is alone in having the Partido Liberal ahead, with 34.8% of the vote, leading the Partido Nacional at 28.33% and supposedly showing LIBRE in third place at 16,15%. It is almost as if this poll inadvertently reversed LIBRE and the Partido Liberal.

      One of these candidates will receive the most votes in November. If election monitoring prevents fraud-- a big if in Honduras-- that same candidate will become the next president.

      The current polling data do not allow identification of a clear leader, but do tell us that the traditional two party system has been effectively challenged for the first time in Honduran history: LIBRE and the Partido Nacional are the clear leaders vying for control of the presidency, and one of these did not exist at the time of the last election.

      Whatever the outcome, the political landscape has changed in Honduras.

      ANONYMOUS video about Honduras

      Monday, October 28, 2013
      Posted by Rights Action Team | 0 comments


      In 2009, U.S. trained militaries overthrew the democratically elected government of Honduras. Today, Honduras is facing state repression, death squad killings, violence, and impunity. The U.S. government and North American resource extraction companies maintain profitable economic and military relations with Honduras post-military coup regime.

      In the face of ongoing repression by the regime, the Honduran people continue to organize and work for a return to democracy, for justice, dignity and self determination. There have been 206 politically motivated murders of Resistance activists by the military, police, and private armies employed by the largest landowners such as Miguel Facusse.

      One of the major impediments to the peoples struggle in Honduras is that the United States government is empowering and legitimizing the regime. The leaders of the military coup, and virtually all of the key players in the current violent repression campaigns in Honduras, have received their training at the School of the Americas, a U.S. terrorist training camp, based in Fort Benning Georgia.

      The U S military and police training must be stopped, and the entire barbaric foreign policy agenda must be destroyed.

      We call on the Anonymous collective to expose the soldiers and instructors at the School of the Americas, the corporations and financial institutions, and everyone else responsible for the atrocities.

      Join us from November 22-24, 2013, at the gates of Fort Benning Georgia.



      Repression, corruption and impunity continue unabated in Honduras.  Please send copies of this article, and your own letters, to your Canadian and American politicians (MPs, Congress members and Senators) and to your own media.  Since the June 2009 military coup, that ousted the democratically elected government, Honduras has become the 'Murder Capital of the world'.  State repression has reached the levels of the worst years of the 1980s.

      Since the coup, the U.S. and Canadian governments have 'legitimized the illegitimate' post-coup regime.  North American companies and investors have increased business activities in mining, sweatshops and tourism in Honduras since the coup.  The regime remains in power due in large part to its political, economic and military relations with the U.S. and Canada.

      There are no signs this repression, violence, corruption and impunity will decrease, even as a majority of Hondurans courageously support the LIBRE political party that will participate in the November 2013 presidential elections ... in a hope of putting an end to their nightmare.

      Across Honduras, community based organizations in the pro-democracy movement need considerably more human rights accompaniment, funding, media attention on the harms and violations and education and activism in Canada and the U.S.