Good morning!

The LDP (Liberal Democratic Party -- Jiminto) has returned to power in Japan with a landslide victory. In Kumamoto City, the LDP won 4 of the 5 districts. In Kumamoto City's District No. 1, Matsuno Yorihisa, who had belonged to the Democratic Party but joined Hashimoto Toru's Nippon Ishin no Kai (Restoration Party), lost to Kihara Minori of the LDP.

http://kumanichi.com/news/local/main/20121217003.shtml

Kumamoto City is also in the news (Japanese language news, at least) for confusion about the results. It seems that votes from District No. 1 were first counted as being from District No. 2. Then, the "correction" issued gave a total of votes that was greater than the number of eligible voters:

http://news.tbs.co.jp/newseye/tbs_newseye5209651.html
http://kumanichi.com/feature/2012shuin/kiji/20121201002.shtml

For Japan as a whole, the victory of the LDP has been decisive:

"Early results suggest the conservative-leaning LDP, led by Shinzo Abe, won 293 out of the 480 seats in the country's lower house."

http://news.sky.com/story/1026136/japan-election-shinzo-abe-returns-to-power

> Mr Abe has said he wants Japan to play a bigger role in global security. He has pledged to change the country's pacifist constitution signed after World War Two.
>
> A new right-leaning government combined with changes to the constitution and growing nationalist movement within Japan could significantly increase tensions in East Asia.

Nippon Ishin no Kai lost in Kumamoto's District No. 1 and didn't do as well as leaders had hoped in the country as a whole:

> Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Restoration Party) picked up only 54 seats in the Lower House election, a far cry from the hundreds of seats party leaders had hoped for.

Still, with the far-right politicians Ishihara Shintaro and Hashimoto Toru at the helm of this party, I think it's fair to say that these 54 seats will help Abe and the LDP change the constitution.

I think we can expect increasingly rocky relations with Korea and China in the near future.

By the way, this landslide occurred with a low voter participation rate of just under 60%, close to or below the lowest rate since this end of WWII:

http://mainichi.jp/select/news/20121217ddm002010114000c.html

Kirk

Hi!

Here's a brief follow-up to my post about the election.

Matsuno Yorihisa lost in District No. 1 (a single-seat district or "shou senkyo ku") but still has a seat in the Diet because Nippon Ishin no Kai won a total of 4 seats in Kyushu's proportional representation district (hirei daihyosei senkyoku). It looks like Matsuno was the only Kumamoto politician to lose in his single-seat district but be picked up in his party's proportional district.

By the way, in case you're interested, here's a map showing Japan's 11 proportional representation districts (also referred to as "blocks"):

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/43/Shugi-in_senkyo_hirei-ku_Japan.png

Kirk

On 2012/12/17, at 7:26, Kirk Masden wrote:

> In Kumamoto City, the LDP won 4 of the 5 districts. In Kumamoto City's District No. 1, Matsuno Yorihisa, who had belonged to the Democratic Party but joined Hashimoto Toru's Nippon Ishin no Kai (Restoration Party), lost to Kihara Minori of the LDP.

Hi Kirk,

There was actually a report on the nationalist movement gaining strength
in Japan on NPR this past Friday (when they had taken a break from
talking about the tragedy at Sandy Hook).

I fear that things are going to get rocky. Unfortunately, the people who
will pay are the Japanese, through damage to tourism and Japanese
businesses in China and Korea (leading to corporate losses and the
resultant restructuring). So while I am disappointed at the outcome (I
was hoping the moderates would prevail), I do understand the desire to
punish the DPJ for carrying on with business as usual although I was
hoping some smaller parties would get a second look or that the
population would realize that you cannot undo 50 years of internal rot
in only 3 years.....especially as the LDP has taken a strategy that
consists of blocking anything the government wants to do and then
accusing the government of not being effective.

Frank

On 16/12/2012 5:26 PM, Kirk Masden wrote:
> Good morning!
>
> The LDP (Liberal Democratic Party -- Jiminto) has returned to power in Japan with a landslide victory. In Kumamoto City, the LDP won 4 of the 5 districts. In Kumamoto City's District No. 1, Matsuno Yorihisa, who had belonged to the Democratic Party but joined Hashimoto Toru's Nippon Ishin no Kai (Restoration Party), lost to Kihara Minori of the LDP.
>
> http://kumanichi.com/news/local/main/20121217003.shtml
>
> Kumamoto City is also in the news (Japanese language news, at least) for confusion about the results. It seems that votes from District No. 1 were first counted as being from District No. 2. Then, the "correction" issued gave a total of votes that was greater than the number of eligible voters:
>
> http://news.tbs.co.jp/newseye/tbs_newseye5209651.html
> http://kumanichi.com/feature/2012shuin/kiji/20121201002.shtml
>
> For Japan as a whole, the victory of the LDP has been decisive:
>
> "Early results suggest the conservative-leaning LDP, led by Shinzo Abe, won 293 out of the 480 seats in the country's lower house."
>
> http://news.sky.com/story/1026136/japan-election-shinzo-abe-returns-to-power
>
>> Mr Abe has said he wants Japan to play a bigger role in global security. He has pledged to change the country's pacifist constitution signed after World War Two.
>>
>> A new right-leaning government combined with changes to the constitution and growing nationalist movement within Japan could significantly increase tensions in East Asia.
> Nippon Ishin no Kai lost in Kumamoto's District No. 1 and didn't do as well as leaders had hoped in the country as a whole:
>
>> Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Restoration Party) picked up only 54 seats in the Lower House election, a far cry from the hundreds of seats party leaders had hoped for.
> Still, with the far-right politicians Ishihara Shintaro and Hashimoto Toru at the helm of this party, I think it's fair to say that these 54 seats will help Abe and the LDP change the constitution.
>
> I think we can expect increasingly rocky relations with Korea and China in the near future.
>
> By the way, this landslide occurred with a low voter participation rate of just under 60%, close to or below the lowest rate since this end of WWII:
>
> http://mainichi.jp/select/news/20121217ddm002010114000c.html
>
> Kirk
>
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Thanks Frank!

I think this is the NPR report you might be referring to:

http://www.npr.org/2012/12/14/167255532/nationalist-rhetoric-high-as-japanese-head-to-polls

There have been several others:

http://www.npr.org/search/index.php?searchinput=Japan

In regard to the Democratic Party, I share the disappointment of many Japanese people in Noda. I couldn't tell from his actions how he was different from LDP politicians. By the way, speaking of overlap with this LDP, the height of hypocrisy was when the LDP gave him a vote of no confidence and cited "raising the consumption tax" as a prime reason -- a policy the LDP actually supported!!

At any rate, I think Noda basically caused the Democratic Party to implode. It became hard to understand what, if anything, they stood for as a party that differentiated them from other parties. Noda was very unpopular. Also, a combination of LDP and media bashing of Kan Naoto (who I think was a good deal better than Noda in many respects) prior to Noda's ascent also probably cut into support for the Democratic Party (Kan lost in his single-seat race). Finally, the only part of the Japanese population that could find candidates they could back with enthusiasm was nationalist segment. I don't know if they represent a majority (probably not really) but with everyone feeling disillusioned and/or falling silent, the political right has taken the lead.

Kirk

On 2012/12/18, at 2:40, Frank Lamosa wrote:

> Hi Kirk,
>
> There was actually a report on the nationalist movement gaining strength in Japan on NPR this past Friday (when they had taken a break from talking about the tragedy at Sandy Hook).
>
> I fear that things are going to get rocky. Unfortunately, the people who will pay are the Japanese, through damage to tourism and Japanese businesses in China and Korea (leading to corporate losses and the resultant restructuring). So while I am disappointed at the outcome (I was hoping the moderates would prevail), I do understand the desire to punish the DPJ for carrying on with business as usual although I was hoping some smaller parties would get a second look or that the population would realize that you cannot undo 50 years of internal rot in only 3 years.....especially as the LDP has taken a strategy that consists of blocking anything the government wants to do and then accusing the government of not being effective.
>
> Frank