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LATEST PROPAGATION REPORT

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  • George
    Hello All, here is the latest propagation report released by ARRL... George K3ZK SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP050 ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP50 QST de W1AW
    Message 1 of 10 , Dec 1, 2006
      Hello All, here is the latest propagation report released by ARRL...

      George K3ZK


      SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP050
      ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA
      ZCZC AP50
      QST de W1AW
      Propagation Forecast Bulletin 50 ARLP050
      From Tad Cook, K7RA
      Seattle, WA December 1, 2006
      To all radio amateurs
      SB PROP ARL ARLP050
      ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA
      The IMF, or Interplanetary Magnetic Field, dipped south early
      Thursday UTC (Wednesday night, November 29 in North America) letting
      in a blast of solar wind. The planetary K index throughout Thursday
      UTC (which is 4:00 PM Wednesday to 4:00 PM Thursday here on North
      America's West Coast) was 2, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 2 and 1, and the
      resulting planetary A index was 28. This week saw more geomagnetic
      activity overall than the last reporting week (it runs Thursday
      through Wednesday), with the average daily planetary A index rising
      8.7 points to 12.3. Average daily sunspot numbers declined more than
      11 points this week over last.
      The daily sunspot number was 0 on three days recently, November
      22-24. Since that time the number has been rising (12, 12, 30, 34,
      33 and 59) from November 25-30. There are two prominent and growing
      sunspots in view (927 and 926) and a holographic image from November
      26 shows a mid-sized sunspot on our Sun's far side. Not bad for a
      low point in solar cycle 23. Current predictions show the sunspot
      minimum to be 3-4 months from now, although by then I would expect
      to see more spotless days, up to several weeks in a row at least.
      The predicted minimum is based on predicted monthly smoothed sunspot
      numbers, so we will see quite a bit of variation, since daily
      reality is not "smoothed." To determine a true smoothed sunspot
      number for any month, you need 13 months of daily readings, so
      currently we could only know an actual smoothed sunspot number as
      recently as May 2006.
      The average daily solar flux for the past week was 80.6, and the
      latest prediction shows that number rising to 85 for December 1-5,
      90 for December 6-7, and 95 during December 8-13. Sunspot numbers
      should rise also. Over this weekend the planetary A index is
      expected to quiet down, with a value of 15 for December 1, and 5 for
      December 2-5. The next period of geomagnetic disturbance is expected
      around December 7, with a planetary A index of 25. This is just
      prior to the ARRL 10 Meter Contest, December 9-10. Geophysical
      Institute Prague predicts quiet to unsettled conditions December 1,
      quiet conditions December 2-5, unsettled December 6, and active
      geomagnetic conditions on December 7.
      November is over, so we can calculate monthly averages and look at
      where we are and where we've been.
      The average daily sunspot numbers for the months November 2005
      through November 2006 were 32.2, 62.6, 26.7, 5.3, 21.3, 55.2, 39.6,
      24.4, 22.6, 22.8, 25.2, 14.7 and 31.5. Average daily solar flux for
      the same months was 86.3, 90.8, 83.4, 76.5, 75.5, 88.9, 80.9, 76.5,
      75.8, 79, 77.8, 74.3 and 86.3.
      The numbers for November are a surprise, although not outside the
      range of normal variation.
      In Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP042 dated October 13, 2006
      there was a description of how smoothed sunspot numbers are
      calculated. From the monthly averages above, we can calculate our
      own smoothed sunspot number for May 2006. We take half of the
      November 2005 average and half of the November 2006 average, add
      them to the monthly averages for the intervening 11 months, and
      divide by 12. So that is 16.1 plus 15.75, plus the 11 month total of
      320.4, which equals 352.25. This shows an unofficial smoothed
      sunspot number of 29.4 for May, 2006. If we just average the daily
      sunspot number over those 13 months, that average is 29.75.
      Enough numbers, and a little about propagation. After last weekend's
      CQ Worldwide CW DX Contest, Allan Mason, VK2GR in Sydney, Australia
      noted that 10 meter trans-equatorial propagation was good over both
      days between VK2 and Japan with little QSB. He also worked 9M8 and
      UA9 on 10, but 80 and 40 meters were the best bands to work Europe
      and North America. Allan used 100 watts and inverted vee antennas.
      Ed Clulow, N7TL of Portland, Oregon reports he heard nothing on 10
      meters over the weekend, "but 15 was sure inspiring both days." Paul
      Gray, N0JAA of Satellite Beach, Florida was surprised to work EA8EQ
      in the Canary Islands on 12 meter SSB around 1700z earlier in the
      week. Paul was using a G5RV antenna, and EA8AQ was quite strong.
      Paul believes this was sporadic-E skip.
      Herb Anderson, K7GEX of Seattle, Washington wrote to ask about
      different geomagnetic numbers. He uses the VE7CC packet cluster, and
      noticed that postings of geomagnetic A and K index by different
      parties show different results. On November 28 at 0000z, DK0WCY
      reported A index of 12, and K of 2, but K3SKE reported A of 9 and K
      of 1. "Why the difference?", Herb asks.
      I used telnet to connect via the internet to VE7CC, and noticed that
      K3SKE must have been reporting data from WWV. That would be the
      local Boulder A and K index in Colorado. DK0WCY reports at,
      http://www.dk0wcy.de/magneto/magnet.htm that he has his own
      magnetometer, which perhaps is where he was getting the numbers that
      he reported. Generally magnetometers in higher latitudes report
      greater geomagnetic disturbances. For instance, if you look at,
      http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DGD.txt you'll see that the
      numbers in Alaska are generally higher than the numbers from
      Fredericksburg, Virginia. Boulder, Colorado is around 40 degrees
      north latitude, while DK0WCY is in the far north of Germany at
      Scheggerott with a latitude of 54.33 degrees north. Fredericksburg
      is around 38.3 degrees north, while Herb in Seattle lives at 47.776
      degrees north.
      The link above also shows planetary A and K index, and these numbers
      are derived from 13 magnetometers around the world. You can learn
      more about them at,
      http://www.gfz-potsdam.de/pb2/pb23/GeoMag/niemegk/kp_index/kp_sites.html.
      And, http://www.gfz-potsdam.de/pb2/pb23/GeoMag/niemegk/kp_index/kp.html.
      I was watching the local late evening news on television in Seattle,
      and saw a story about the new Japanese Hinode spacecraft, which
      carries several high resolution telescopes. The news story showed
      dramatic footage of solar prominences and sunspots. You can see
      images from this new satellite at,
      http://solar-b.nao.ac.jp/news_e/20061127_press_e/.
      Last, Ward Silver, N0AX had a couple of fascinating items in the
      latest issue of the ARRL Contest Rate sheet this week. One was a
      story out of India about cooling in the upper ionosphere. Ward
      commented that cooling in the lower layers should improve density,
      which of course translates to higher MUF and better propagation at
      higher frequencies. You can read about it at,
      http://tinyurl.com/yxoked.


      [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
    • George
      Here is the latest propagation report from the ARRL George K3ZK The daily sunspot number ended the stretch of zeroes on March 23, after 10 days of totally
      Message 2 of 10 , Mar 30, 2007
        Here is the latest propagation report from the ARRL

        George K3ZK

        The daily sunspot number ended the stretch of zeroes on March 23,
        after 10 days of totally blank sun. Since then the daily sunspot
        number has ranged from 11 to 23. Note that as mentioned in recent
        bulletins, the daily sunspot number is not the same as the number of
        sunspots, but represents the number of spots and individual groups
        of spots. The minimum non-zero sunspot number is 11, when there is
        one spot visible.
        Geomagnetic activity came a little earlier than predicted, with the
        active day on Saturday, March 24. The latest forecast shows the next
        period of higher geomagnetic activity on Monday, April 2. The
        sunspot numbers and solar flux should remain about the same, with no
        more than one or two spots visible.
        Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet geomagnetic conditions
        for March 30 and 31, unsettled activity on April 1 and 2, quiet to
        unsettled on April 3, and quiet again on April 4 and 5.
        Keith O'Brien, N4ZQ of Clearwater, Florida wrote in reminiscing
        about solar activity from long ago:
        "I had just turned 11 years old in February 11, 1958. I was about a
        year and half away from getting my first, one year -- non renewable
        -- 5 WPM, Novice License. My family lived on the south shore of Long
        Island in the town of Merrick. But what I remember about that
        particular date was a night sky that was as bright an orange as any
        noon day. I recall climbing the center stairs to the second floor of
        my Colonial style house to watch the fantastic sight out the north-
        facing window.
        "Little did I understand what I was witnessing, but probably one of
        the largest auroras of modern time. I recall reading the New York
        papers the next day where they talked about a large radio blackout
        due to the storm.
        "The light from the auroras was visible all the way south to Mexico.
        It was a sight to behold and has stuck with me all these years.
        "But what I would like to find, if possible, is what the surface of
        the sun looked like at that time. How many sun spots were there and
        how large they were?"
        I found a drawing for Keith done on that day in Japan. You can see
        it on the web at,
        http://solarwww.mtk.nao.ac.jp/solar/wl-fulldisk/drawing/1958/580211s.jpg.
        You can see other drawings from
        http://solarwww.mtk.nao.ac.jp/database.html by clicking on Sunspot
        Drawings in the Index, then under Drawings click on the year you
        want, then you will see filenames which are the dates of the
        drawings.
        Don Smith, N6NAX of Phoenix, Arizona writes that he is working the
        world on 20 meter PSK with only three watts. He observes "KH6CW
        working stations non-stop in Europe and USA" on 20 meter PSK. Even
        with 0 or nearly no sunspots, he is still seeing many signals from
        all over and 20 and 40 meters. He reports using a home built
        vertical antenna "like the one described in October 1995 edition of
        QST magazine."
        If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
        email the author at, k7ra@....
        For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
        Technical Information Service at,
        http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed
        explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see
        http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past
        propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly
        propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas
        locations are at, http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/.
        Sunspot numbers for March 22 through 28 were 0, 14, 11, 11, 17, 11
        and 23 with a mean of 12.4. 10.7 cm flux was 72.5, 72.5, 72.8, 73.7,
        73.8, 73.3, and 74.6, with a mean of 73.3. Estimated planetary A


        [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
      • George
        Hello All, here is the latest propagation report from the ARRL... George K3ZK Here we are at the bottom of the sunspot cycle, although we won t know when it
        Message 3 of 10 , Apr 6, 2007
          Hello All, here is the latest propagation report from the ARRL...

          George K3ZK

          Here we are at the bottom of the sunspot cycle, although we won't
          know when it occurs for sure until a year after it passes. This is
          because daily and monthly variations are so great that we need to
          look at averages derived from many months of daily readings to
          determine a cycle peak or minimum.
          Because solar activity is so low, comparing this week's average
          solar-related indices with last week's doesn't mean much. Average
          daily sunspot number up by half a point, solar flux down 1.1 point,
          and the two A indexes we watch rose from 10.4 to 11.7 and 7.7 to 8.
          NOAA has yet another revised forecast for the bottom of the cycle,
          and it moves the minimum out by one month. The last projection we
          saw in the Weekly Preliminary Report and Forecast had cycle minimum
          covering this month and the last two, February through April 2007.
          The revised numbers extend it out another month, so the minimum is
          spread over February through May 2007. To see them both, go to
          http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly/ and select 1648, the April 3
          edition, and look at the table on page 9, then view page 10 in issue
          1644.
          These are predictions for 12-month smoothed numbers, what they would
          be if a year of predicted numbers were averaged, and the month in
          question in the middle. So on the most recent table, the latest
          month we know the actual smoothed sunspot number is September 2006,
          because none of the data which it depends on is predicted.
          A different forecast from NOAA puts the minimum for sunspot numbers
          at this month. See it at
          http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/Predict.txt, and note that
          their predicted minimum for solar flux comes four months later.
          Two months ago we began tracking our own smoothed sunspot numbers.
          Instead of averaging each monthly average (that's right, the 12
          month smoothed number is an average of averages) we use a shorter
          period, 3 months. This allows spotting of recent trends. Now that
          March 2007 has passed, we know the 3-month average for February
          2007. Because there were 90 days from January 1 through March 31,
          we take the sum of all the daily sunspot numbers for that period
          (1,661), and divide by 90. The result rounds out to 18.5, the
          lowest 90-day smoothed number since a year earlier.
          Here are the 90-day smoothed sunspot numbers for the past 18 months:
          Sep 05 39.3
          Oct 05 28
          Nov 05 36
          Dec 05 40.6
          Jan 06 32.4
          Feb 06 18.1
          Mar 06 27.7
          Apr 06 38.5
          May 06 39.7
          Jun 06 28.9
          Jul 06 23.3
          Aug 06 23.5
          Sep 06 21.2
          Oct 06 24.1
          Nov 06 23.1
          Dec 06 27.3
          Jan 07 22.7
          Feb 07 18.5
          In the following numbers, note these are averages for each month,
          not a smoothed number for 3 months. Monthly averages of daily
          sunspot numbers for February 2006 through March 2007 were 5.3, 21.3,
          55.2, 39.6, 24.4, 22.6 , 22.8, 25.2, 14.7, 31.5, 22.2, 28.2, 17.3
          and 9.8. Monthly averages of daily solar flux for the same period
          were 76.5, 75.5, 88.9, 80.9, 76.5, 75.8, 79, 77.8, 74.3, 86.3, 84.4,
          83.5, 77.7 and 72.2.
          From all indications above, this looks like it could be the low
          point of cycle 23, although I expect a monthly average sunspot
          number closer to zero than ten. Perhaps we aren't actually there
          yet.
          In the last bulletin, we mentioned N4ZQ, and his vivid memory of
          aurora on February 11, 1958, which had a ''night sky as bright as any
          noon day'' on Long Island in New York. Mail came in this week from
          others who recall that day.
          John Weatherly, AB4ET of Melbourne, Florida writes: ''On that date I
          was living in Elizabeth, South Australia and actually on the air as
          VK5QL at about 9 PM local time. I had been working Europeans on CW
          when in the space of about 3 or 4 minutes 20 meters changed from a
          good noise free band full of signals to an S9 hiss with zero
          signals. I wasn't sure what happened and started to check my rig's
          connections when my XYL, who had been hanging laundry out to dry in
          the back yard (mid-summer in VK), came rushing into the shack and
          said 'Come quick. Something strange has happened to the sky.' I went
          out into the yard to find the entire southern sky covered with the
          wavering multicolored glow of the Aurora Australis, stretching up to
          and beyond the zenith. As a visitor from the UK (G3KQL), this was
          something neither of us had ever seen before (or since). The
          phenomena lasted about 45 minutes and then began to fade, the noise
          gradually diminished along with it and the signals returned''.
          Kerry Webster, WB7AKE of Tacoma, Washington writes about another
          experience from 1958: ''My dad worked in a gas station in Centralia,
          Washington. One day he was chatting with the local cop, leaning in
          the window of the squad car, when the police officer picked up his
          microphone to check in with his dispatcher. To his surprise, the
          voice that came back was a strange woman with a southern accent,
          wanting him to go to 'Peachtree Street.' Turns out the dispatcher
          was in Georgia. I remember the cop cars of those days, with their
          long whip antennas, so I'm guessing they were on the old 40 MHz low
          VHF band. The incident made a great impression on me, and shortly
          afterward I got my first S-38 and started listening for this cool
          stuff myself.''
          Last weekend I visited Reedley, California, in the San Joaquin
          Valley, a little agricultural town where I lived in 1958, when I was
          six. This was my first time back in 47 years, and most of the town
          was hard to recognize, having grown five-fold since then. My father
          had a lo-band business radio in the company car in 1958, also
          somewhere around 40 MHz, and the outfit he worked for had a similar
          situation, with someone in the field depending on an unknown station
          in Texas to relay a message to the base station in Fresno.
          I was fascinated by this, and a few years later in 1962 would first
          hear about amateur radio and see a station up close. But when I got
          my Novice license in 1965, the sunspot activity was way down from
          the 1950s, far down. All I heard from my older ham brethren was
          grumbling about the terrible conditions, compared to just a few
          years earlier. Little did we know that over the next five decades
          we would experience nothing like 1958-59.
          Several more people wrote in this week to talk about the worldwide
          communications they still have, even at the bottom of the cycle.
          KD0AL in California wrote about the great signal reports he got from
          Armenia and Kuwait with his old TA-33jr at 21 feet, and NN0TT in
          Minnesota has 289 confirmed with 100 watts CW and one of those
          popular commercial verticals with no radials.
          Don Prahl, KV7Q of Wilmar, Minnesota writes about the fun we are
          having at the bottom of the cycle: ''The amazing reports of activity
          in recent months are probably attributable to one key factor --
          technology. I was first licensed in 1962 and, during the minimum of
          the mid-60's, remember my frustration at hearing nothing day after
          day with my Hallicrafters SX-25. But hey, this rig was literally in
          the stone ages compared to the quality gear we all enjoy today. I
          suspect the same signals we hear today were around then as well - -
          they just couldn't be heard. Add in the fact that there were very
          few hams running a full kilowatt, it's no wonder we hated those
          sunspot minimums. Life is good - - technology is great.''
          And finally, N6OA wrote to remind us about the interesting
          experiment at PropNET, http://www.propnet.org/. They are using
          automation and PSK31 to operate a real time indicator of current
          conditions. Click on the results on that page, and also find out
          how to join the network yourself.
          If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
          email the author at, k7raarrl.net.
          For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
          Technical Information Service at
          http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed
          explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see
          http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past
          propagation bulletins is at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/ . Monthly
          propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas
          locations are at http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/.
          Sunspot numbers for March 29 through April 4 were 14, 13, 15, 13,
          12, 23 and 0 with a mean of 12.9. 10.7 cm flux was 73.8, 74.1, 73.2,


          [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
        • George
          Here is the latest propagation report from the ARRL... George K3ZK So far this month we ve observed 9 days in a row with 0 sunspots, and all of our reporting
          Message 4 of 10 , Apr 13, 2007
            Here is the latest propagation report from the ARRL...

            George K3ZK

            So far this month we've observed 9 days in a row with 0 sunspots,
            and all of our reporting week for this bulletin (April 5 through 11)
            falls within this string of inactive solar days. As noted in last
            week's bulletin, comparing that week's average sunspot number (12.9)
            to this week's (0) doesn't mean much when activity is so low at the
            bottom of this sunspot cycle. Based on predicted smoothed sunspot
            numbers, if this month and the next are truly the solar minimum, we
            should probably see several weeks in a row with no sunspots.
            Those hoping for more activity and a return to worldwide propagation
            on 10 and 15 meters should be cheered by this, because recent
            observation shows the rise of any solar cycle is faster than its
            decline, and most importantly, the decline of the previous cycle.
            Around the last solar minimum, between Cycles 22 and 23, Sun
            watchers observed several long strings of days showing no sunspots.
            For instance, from February 10 to March 5, 1997, the average sunspot
            number was 2.1, and there were 20 days during that period with no
            sunspots. Prior to that, another long stretch of inactivity occurred
            in the Fall of 1996. The average daily sunspot number was 1.7 from
            September 5 to November 8, when 57 of 65 days the Sun showed no
            spots. The longest continuous stretch with no sunspots at all in
            that period was 38 days, following September 12, when a single
            sunspot was visible and ending October 21, when another sunspot
            appeared. Both those days had an official sunspot number of 11, and
            each time, the single sunspot was only visible for a single day.
            This period was preceded and followed by three days of no sunspots,
            and October 29 through November 8, 1996, also had zero sunspots,
            followed by December 24 through January 3, 1997.
            Remember that an average sunspot number of 1 or 2 doesn't correspond
            to one or two sunspots. Because of the peculiar manner in which
            sunspot numbers are derived, the minimum non-zero sunspot number on
            any day is 11. This is because the number of sunspot groups is
            multiplied by ten, and the resulting number is added to the total
            number of visible spots. So two spots in one group is 12, three
            spots is 13, but three spots in two groups yields a sunspot number
            of 23.
            To observe the rate that the end of Cycle 22 fell toward minimum and
            the beginning of Cycle 23 began, it is useful to average sunspot
            numbers over each quarter. The average sunspot numbers for the years
            1993 and 1994 were 79 and 48. The averages for the four quarters of
            1995 were 47.4, 25.3, 21 and 21.3. 1996 had 13.1, 13, 12.4 and 14.2.
            For 1997, the quarterly averages were 11.3, 25.4, 37.2 and 48.2. The
            quarterly averages of sunspot numbers for the next two years, 1998
            and 1999 were 62.9, 80.4 , 111.8, 99.1, 97.2, 147.2, 137.9 and
            163.1. You can see that the new cycle rose quickly, beginning in the
            second quarter of 1997.
            In practical terms, what is the difference between a couple of weeks
            of zero sunspots, and three months of a sunspot number around 163?
            As an example, every year Saad Mahaini, N5FF of Richardson, Texas
            spends three weeks in Syria. Currently operating YK1BA, he will
            return to Texas on April 28.
            Plugging the numbers into a popular propagation prediction program,
            this weekend when he talks to someone back home in the Dallas area,
            he might find spotty openings on 20 meters around 2100-2230z and
            perhaps 0400z. Less likely, 17 meters might be possible around
            1700-2000z, and far less likely, 15 meters from 1500-2100z. He could
            also expect strong 40-meter signals from 0000-0400z. These are
            normative expectations. Your mileage may vary. Saad may experience
            fantastic propagation. These are based on probability, and we can
            always be surprised.
            But if the sunspot number leading up to this weekend had been about
            163, he could expect stronger 40 meter signals over the same period,
            20 meter propagation from 2100-0700z with really strong signals from
            0000-0430z, and a good 15 meter opening from 1300-2300z. He might
            even find 10 meters open over a shorter time during the same period.
            Or, the Sun could be covered with spots, and a huge solar flare --
            more likely during periods of higher solar activity -- could wipe
            out propagation in a radio blackout.
            Coming soon, the prediction for the next period of unsettled
            geomagnetic conditions is for around April 20, with an expected
            planetary A index of 20. After that, a planetary A index of 25 is
            predicted for April 28. This same forecast (from the U.S. Air Force,
            via NOAA) shows solar flux of 70 until April 16, when it rises to
            75. This is a small shift, but may signal the period during which we
            could see another sunspot, April 16-27.
            David Moore tipped us off to an interesting article from the
            European Space Agency about the physics of solar wind and auroras.
            The link for that article is at,
            http://sci.esa.int/jump.cfm?oid=40878 .
            Finally, one more report from the top of Cycle 19. John Hardin, W4NU
            of Atlanta, Georgia was first licensed around the age of 16 as
            KN4JAG in Atlanta in June 1959, and upgraded to General class a
            month later. He writes: "The propagation was awesome. By 1960 I
            upgraded from a Knight Ocean Hopper receiver and Globe Scout 680-A
            with a 40 meter doublet to a Viking Valiant, NC-57B receiver, and a
            3 el Hornet Tribander on my parents' roof. 10 meters was open after
            midnight, 15 on into the morning and 20 meters all night. I could
            break the DX pileups with ease and ended up with DXCC in the early
            1960s. I will never forget how crowded the 10 meter phone band was."
            If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
            email the author at, k7ra@....
            For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
            Technical Information Service at,
            http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed
            explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see,
            http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past
            propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/ .
            Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
            overseas locations are at, http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/.
            Sunspot numbers for April 5 through 11 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 and 0
            with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 70.9, 71, 71.2, 71.1, 69.9, 69.4,


            [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
          • George
            Here is the latest propagation report from the ARRL... George K3ZK After five days of no sunspots from May 24-28, spots returned on May 29, and have increased
            Message 5 of 10 , Jun 8 2:53 PM
              Here is the latest propagation report from the ARRL...

              George K3ZK


              After five days of no sunspots from May 24-28, spots returned on May
              29, and have increased since in number and size. There are
              currently several sunspots visible, and the sunspot number for the
              past five days (Sunday through Thursday) was 58, 58, 63, 47 and 59.
              Coupled with quiet and stable geomagnetic indicators, this is good
              for HF propagation. Our reporting week for this bulletin (the
              numbers reported at the end) runs from Thursday through Wednesday,
              and the average daily sunspot number for May 31 to June 6 rose
              nearly 43 points to 46.1 when compared to the prior seven days.
              Average daily solar flux rose nearly 15 points to 83.7.
              Last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP023 mentioned ARRL
              Field Day, now just two weeks away. The bulletin reported (in some
              uncorrected versions) that the event is always held on the last full
              weekend in June, but Don Jackson, AE5K of Marion County, Arkansas
              pointed out that the rules specify the fourth full weekend. Both
              fourth and last are on the same weekend this year (June 23-24),
              which is usually the case, but not always. In 2002, the fourth full
              weekend was June 22-23, but the last full weekend was June 29-30.
              This occurs whenever June 1 is a Saturday, as it will be again in
              2013 and 2024.
              Last week the latest projection looked like no sunspots around Field
              Day with a declining geomagnetic disturbance, but this week the
              forecast looks a little better. Including the Friday before (the
              event doesn't begin until Saturday) the projected solar flux last
              week for June 22-24 was 65 for all three days, with a planetary A
              index of 20, 12 and 5. This week's prediction for those dates shows
              the same A index, but a solar flux 10 points higher, at 75 for all
              three days.
              A check of recent sunspot numbers alongside solar flux values on the
              same dates at, http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt, shows
              no sunspots when the solar flux was down around 65, but at 75 the
              sunspot number can be in the 40s.
              For the next few days expect continued quiet geomagnetic activity,
              with the same moderate (for the low point of the sunspot cycle)
              sunspot count.
              Alex Mendelsohn, AI2Q in Kennebunk, Maine sent a link to an article
              about a solar burst last December 6, which caused problems for GPS
              receivers. You can read it at, http://tinyurl.com/389ngn. See how
              we reported the same flare at,
              http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/2006-arlp051.html. Our bulletin shows
              that the solar flux observatory in British Columbia also had
              problems from that event.
              If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
              email the author at, k7ra@....
              For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
              Technical Information Service at,
              http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed
              explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see
              http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past
              propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/ .
              Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
              overseas locations are at, http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/.
              Sunspot numbers for May 31 through June 6 were 11, 41, 45, 58, 58,
              63 and 47 with a mean of 46.1. 10.7 cm flux was 74.6, 79.4, 83.2,


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            • George
              The average of daily sunspot numbers for this reporting week, July 5-11, were about the same as the previous seven days, declining slightly by less than two
              Message 6 of 10 , Jul 14, 2007
                The average of daily sunspot numbers for this reporting week, July 5-11, were about the same as the previous seven days, declining slightly by less than two points. We've seen no zero sunspot days since an eleven-day spotless period ended on June 25. If sunspot numbers continue at this level and higher, it will become easier to convince ourselves that the sunspot minimum is already behind us (see the table of 3-month moving averages in last week's bulletin ARLP028 at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/2007-arlp028.html).
                On July 11 the Air Force had a prediction for heightened solar flux (probably indicating more sunspots) from July 13-15 (see
                http://tinyurl.com/yonktp). Alas, by Thursday afternoon the
                predicted solar flux had dropped ten points (see
                http://tinyurl.com/2ffq9n) from 85 to 75 for the same period. Using
                some very rough approximations plus maybe a fudge-factor or two, this might be reflected in a slightly greater than thirteen point difference in the expected daily sunspot number.
                Predicted planetary A index for July 13-19 is 8, 10, 8, 8, 8, 15 and 20. For the same period Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet to unsettled conditions for July 13, unsettled July 14, quiet July 15-17, and unsettled July 18-19.
                Wade Grimes, K0MHP of Elsberry, Missouri wrote to ask if six meters is the ''magic band, or invisible band?'' He isn't hearing the propagation on six reported in this bulletin. He's having much better luck on 20 meters, although he is constructing a quad antenna for six, and he does copy some distant beacon signals.
                I should point out that not everyone is hearing DX on six, but still the reports come in from those who are patient and lucky. Ken Tata, K1KT sent in more examples via maps generated at vhfdx.net . Poke around this site, and you will find both current real-time maps showing propagation on 2 and 6 meters for both North America and Europe, and some fine examples of recent propagation on some archived maps.
                Howard Runyons, W4HLR of Newbern, Tennessee (EM56jb) wrote about he and N4QWZ (EM66) both working W7CI (DM41) in Sierra Vista, Arizona on 2 meters on June 27 at 2349z. Howard ran 50 watts through hard-line to a 15 element beam at 40 feet.
                Mark Roberts, KD5SMF of Fairview, Oklahoma has been enjoying both 6 and 10 meters, and he recently took a trip up Gloss Mountain (EM06xj) to see what he could work on both bands. At over 1500 feet on July 7, he worked 41 stations on 10 meters, nearly all to the southeast and northeast. He worked one station in Anaheim,
                California. As the propagation moved, he got many reports of 10 db over S9, but after moving west, propagation shut down. You can see a photo of him and his portable operation at
                http://www.qrz.com/kd5smf.
                Thanks to David Sumner, K1ZZ of Coventry, Connecticut, who pointed out that in last week's bulletin the call sign for John Butrovich is W5UWB, not W6UWB.
                If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k7ra@....
                For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at
                http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed
                explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see
                http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past
                propagation bulletins is at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/ . Monthly
                propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/.
                Sunspot numbers for June 5 through 11 were 24, 12, 23, 16, 20, 25 and 28 with a mean of 21.1. 10.7 cm flux was 71.5, 71.1, 73.1, 75.1, 77.1, 78.1, and 78.5, with a mean of 74.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 5, 6, 4, 3, 6 and 23 with a mean of 7.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 4, 4, 3, 2, 5 and 14, with a mean of 5.
                NNNN


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              • George
                Hello All, Here is the latest propagation report from the ARRL..... George K3ZK Average daily sunspot numbers rose very little this week, less than 6 points to
                Message 7 of 10 , Aug 3, 2007
                  Hello All, Here is the latest propagation report from the ARRL.....

                  George K3ZK



                  Average daily sunspot numbers rose very little this week, less than 6 points to 7.3. There were no major geomagnetic upsets, only slightly unsettled conditions on the first day of August.
                  We saw eight straight days of no sunspots, then a spot or two over four days, then no spots on the first two days of August. A week from now, August 10, we may see the beginning of several days with a few sunspots every day. Expect unsettled geomagnetic conditions centered on August 7 and again on August 10.
                  Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions August 3-5, quiet to unsettled August 6, unsettled to active August 7, and back to quiet August 8-9.
                  There were six and two meter reports this week. On Sunday, July 29 Dick Bingham, W7WKR, who lives in the very remote mountain village of Stehekin, Washington (reached by boat) reports that he began hearing six meter beacons around 1800z, and until 2300z he worked 22 grids, including HR9BFS in EK66 (Honduras) as well as
                  WA/CA/ID/MT/CO/TX/UT. Dick is blocked by a high ridge running northwest to southeast, with takeoff elevations in excess of 25 degrees, so he doesn't hear the northeastern United States and Canada.
                  WB4SLM reported interesting E-skip on 2 meters, and from EM82 he worked EM14, EM15 and EM25, all around 2100z on Sunday. He lives in Georgia, and during a 30 meter QSO with his father, W9JNH in Texas, around 2133-2135z he heard long delayed echoes on his CW signal.
                  Four days earlier on June 25, Roger Lapthorn, G3XBM reported his best 6-meter DX ever when he worked K1TOL in Maine on CW. Roger was running just a few watts into a vertical mounted on the side of his house. Roger says the distance was over 5000 kilometers.
                  With July over, we can spin some numbers and look for trends.
                  Monthly averages of daily sunspot numbers for April 2006 through July 2007 were 55.2, 39.6, 24.4, 22.6, 22.8, 25.2, 14.7, 31.5, 22.2, 28.2, 17.3, 9.8, 6.9, 19.8, 20.7 and 15.6. Monthly averages of daily solar flux for the same period were 88.9, 80.9, 76.5, 75.8, 79, 77.8, 74.3, 86.3, 84.4, 83.5, 77.7, 72.2, 72.4, 74.4, 73.7 and 71.6.
                  Looking at 3-month smoothed sunspot numbers, now the July numbers we can add to May and June to show the three-month average centered on June. These numbers are based on data from the past 21 months, November 2005 through July 2007:
                  Dec 05 40.6
                  Jan 06 32.4
                  Feb 06 18.1
                  Mar 06 27.7
                  Apr 06 38.5
                  May 06 39.7
                  Jun 06 28.9
                  Jul 06 23.3
                  Aug 06 23.5
                  Sep 06 21.2
                  Oct 06 24.1
                  Nov 06 23.1
                  Dec 06 27.3
                  Jan 07 22.7
                  Feb 07 18.5
                  Mar 07 11.2
                  Apr 07 12.2
                  May 07 15.8
                  Jun 07 18.7
                  These numbers are calculated like this: April 1 through June 30 is 91 days. Add all the daily sunspot numbers over those three months, then divide by 91, and the result is approximately 15.8, centered on May, the middle month. Likewise, May 1 through July 31 has 92 days, and the sum of daily sunspot numbers over that period divided by 92 is 18.7.
                  If the average of daily sunspot numbers for the 31 days of August turns out to be more than 20 (meaning the sum of all the sunspot numbers for the month exceeds 620), we should see the three-month average centered on July rise above the June average. We will see that result in ARLP037, on September 7.
                  This 3-month moving average of sunspot numbers is turning out to be a nice indicator of cycle trends, with the average smoothly
                  declining from December through March, and increasing since. We'll know some day, perhaps in a year or two, if the low number in March is a good indicator of cycle minimum or not. Users of Scott Craig's Solar Data Plotting Utility (available free from
                  http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp) may have noticed that this
                  cycle minimum so far doesn't look as long as the previous minimum around 1995-1997. But of course, if we are at the minimum or just passed it, then we are only looking at probably half of its eventual length on the graph. I hope the upturn comes soon, and is dramatic.
                  If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k7ra@... .
                  For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at
                  http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed
                  explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see
                  http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html . An archive of past
                  propagation bulletins is at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly
                  propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/.
                  Sunspot numbers for July 26 through August 1 were 0, 0, 13, 14, 13, 11 and 0 with a mean of 7.3. 10.7 cm flux was 68.4, 68.7, 69.9, 69, 68.9, 68, and 68.8, with a mean of 68.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 8, 4, 14, 10, 6 and 17 with a mean of 9.7.
                  Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 6, 3, 11, 10, 4 and 15, with a mean of 7.9.
                  NNNN


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                • George
                  Here is the latest propagation report from the ARRL... George K3ZK We re on the road this week, and post this bulletin from Hillsborough County, New Hampshire.
                  Message 8 of 10 , Aug 17, 2007
                    Here is the latest propagation report from the ARRL...

                    George K3ZK

                    We're on the road this week, and post this bulletin from
                    Hillsborough County, New Hampshire.
                    Solar activity continues low. The sun is currently spotless, but sunspots may return around August 20. This week's average daily sunspot numbers were down about a point from last week's, from 12.4 to 11.3.
                    Expect quiet geomagnetic conditions over the next week, according to a forecast from the US Air Force, which predicts planetary A index for August 17-23 of 8, 5, 10, 5, 5, 10 and 8. But Geophysical Institute Prague has quite a different prediction for August 18. They predict quiet conditions for August 17, unsettled to active on August 18, unsettled August 19, quiet August 20-21, unsettled August 22, and quiet to unsettled August 23.
                    Jerry Reimer, KK5CA of Spring, Texas, sent in some interesting comments about NVIS (Near Vertical Incidence Skywave) propagation and antennas, and ionospheric data available on the internet. An automated ionospheric sounder, or isosonde, beams energy straight up while sweeping the signal up in frequency, thereby determining the MUF or Maximum Usable Frequency of that area by measuring the reflected signal. Jerry says that NVIS communication (which is used to communicate with stations out to about 200 miles maximum) is best at a frequency 50 to 80 percent below the MUF from the isosonde. So if the MUF of the patch of ionosphere overhead is 10 MHz, then NVIS is best between 2-5 MHz. With NVIS, users are trying to get high angle radiation instead of low angle, which is usually the goal with other modes of HF communication. A page explaining Vertical
                    Incidence Soundings is linked from
                    http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/IONO/ by clicking on the Vertical
                    Soundings link on the left of the page.
                    He also pointed out some interesting real-time maps showing
                    continent-wide communication between various points at
                    http://www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/4/1. For instance, if
                    you select Hourly HAP Charts, then select Kansas City, what you will see is the best frequencies for communications with Kansas City from across the continent at that time. So you can look at the color region over any point on the map, and this is keyed to the best frequency for communicating with Kansas City from that point.
                    More about NVIS and ionospheric soundings in next week's bulletin.
                    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k7ra@....
                    For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at
                    http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed
                    explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see
                    http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past
                    propagation bulletins is at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/ .
                    Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/.
                    Sunspot numbers for August 9 through 15 were 14, 14, 13, 11, 13, 14 and 0 with a mean of 11.3. 10.7 cm flux was 67.4, 67.5, 67.6, 68.1, 67.7, 68.5, and 67.6, with a mean of 67.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 13, 12, 6, 3, 6 and 8 with a mean of 7.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 10, 7, 5, 2, 3 and 6, with a mean of 5.
                    NNNN


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                  • George
                    Hello All, Here is the latest propagation report from the ARRL... George K3ZK To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP038 ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA The Sun has
                    Message 9 of 10 , Sep 14, 2007
                      Hello All, Here is the latest propagation report from the ARRL...

                      George K3ZK

                      To all radio amateurs
                      SB PROP ARL ARLP038
                      ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA
                      The Sun has been blank, with no visible sunspots, for the past seven days, September 7-13. We may not see another sunspot until
                      September 22, just before the Autumnal Equinox.
                      Thursday evening, September 13, Spaceweather.com
                      (http://www.spaceweather.com) mentioned a coronal wind hitting earth
                      this evening, September 14. The IMF points south, which makes earth vulnerable to solar wind, but other sources don't call for an increase in geomagnetic activity today.
                      We might assume that a solar wind from 27 to 28 days ago could return at this time, based on the rotation of the Sun relative to earth. But looking back four weeks on,
                      http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/quar_DGD.txt does not reveal
                      any heightened activity. Of course, it could be that the
                      Interplanetary Magnetic field pointed north, protecting earth from the coronal wind.
                      U.S. Air Force Space Weather Operations predict continued quiet geomagnetic conditions, with a planetary A index for September 14 at 8, then 5 every day through September 20. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet to unsettled conditions September 14-15 and quiet conditions September 16-20.
                      Each month we are checking the Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data from NOAA SEC for updates to the forecast for this sunspot cycle. The current edition is at 1671, dated September 12, at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly/index.html. Compare the table
                      of predicted smoothed sunspot numbers on page 9 with number 1666 dated August 7. Note the latest forecast has a more pronounced minimum, all centered around March and April 2007.
                      Floyd Clowning, K5LA and Eva Tupis, W2EV sent in some information on PropNET (see http://propnet.org/), the automated network of low
                      power BPSK stations dedicated to detecting propagation paths on 160, 30, 10, 6 and 2 meters, and plotting them on maps. This was
                      mentioned briefly in Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP015 about five months ago.
                      The PropNET website has all the information on setting up one of these stations, and of course, you don't have to be a participant to use it. All the data that is generated appears on the web site.
                      One thing PropNET needs is more overseas participation. The network currently gives good propagation indicators in the United States, but could sure use a few stations outside North America.
                      Check the October 2007 issue of QST for an interesting article concerning the bottom of this solar cycle by Steve Ford, WB8IMY. Titled "Waiting for the Sun," Steve gives us ideas on how to best utilize the available propagation when there are few sunspots.
                      Finally, Ken Fletcher of the British DX Club sent in a link to http://www.solarcycle24.com/, a neat site devoted to the current and
                      upcoming sunspot cycles.
                      If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k7ra@....
                      For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at,
                      http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed
                      explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see,
                      http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past
                      propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/ .
                      Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at, http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/.
                      Sunspot numbers for September 6 through 12 were 12, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 and 0 with a mean of 1.7. 10.7 cm flux was 66.7, 67.1, 66.6, 66.7, 66.9, 66.1, and 65.9 with a mean of 66.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 13, 12, 6, 2, 2, 2 and 2 with a mean of 5.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 8, 10, 3, 2, 2, 2 and 2, with a mean of 4.1.
                      NNNN


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                    • George
                      Last week s report stated the possibility that zero-sunspot days were about to end, but no such luck. Instead we ve seen no sunspots for three weeks straight,
                      Message 10 of 10 , Sep 28, 2007
                        Last week's report stated the possibility that zero-sunspot days were about to end, but no such luck. Instead we've seen no sunspots for three weeks straight, since September 7.
                        The September 20 forecast from NOAA and the US Air Force showed solar flux values rising to 70 on September 21. (See
                        http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/forecasts/45DF/092045DF.txt). The next
                        day's prediction reverted to 67
                        (http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/forecasts/45DF/092145DF.txt). The
                        September 21 prediction had solar flux rising to 70 again, but not until September 29 to October 1, then falling back below 70, then back to 70 again for October 18-28.
                        Now the September 27 forecast has solar flux staying around 67-68 through November 11. You can see all the latest daily forecasts for solar flux and planetary A index at
                        http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html. The possible end
                        to the stretch of zero sunspot days was based on the observation that when the solar flux is 70 or higher, there is at least one visible sunspot. This makes it seem that we are still at the bottom of the cycle, or haven't quite reached it.
                        Those daily forecasts are posted after 2100z. There is a new sunspot 970 emerging, so perhaps the September 28 forecast will show solar flux back to 70 or higher. There is currently a solar wind hitting earth, and currently the interplanetary magnetic field points south, which leaves earth vulnerable. That same forecast on September 27 predicts a planetary A index for September 28 to October 3 at 15, 25, 12, 8, 8 and 15, so we may see unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions on Saturday, September 29 and again Wednesday, October 3. Already early Friday morning UTC (which is late Thursday on the West Coast) we've seen the planetary K index as high as 6. Lately with quiet conditions the K index has been 1 or 2. Above 3 is considered unsettled or active geomagnetic
                        conditions.
                        Geophysical Institute Prague predicts unsettled conditions for September 28, unsettled to active September 29, unsettled September 30, quiet October 1, unsettled October 2-3, and quiet to unsettled October 4.
                        Jeff Lackey, K8CQ of Saint Simons Island, Georgia wrote in with an interesting observation. He created a graph (which unfortunately is not on the web for viewing) which plots periods in which the solar flux drops below 80 for extended periods. It shows the longest run at the end of cycle 22 was from January 8 through July 7, 1996, 182 days. The second longest run from 11 years ago was 112 days from August 2 to November 21, 1996. The latest and also the longest run at the end of the current cycle 23 began on June 9, 2007 and so far runs 112 days through September 28. The September 28 morning reading at Penticton (the noon reading is the official value) has a very low solar flux value of 64.4.
                        The latest forecast from the Air Force shows solar flux below 80 for the next 45 days, so if this turns out to be true, that would put this run up toward the longest one from 11 years ago. We are today already equal to the second longest run of cycle 22, and are in the longest run of the current cycle. The second longest run for the current cycle is 77 days, ending after April 25, 2007.
                        Note there is nothing magic about a solar flux value of 80, but Jeff is a numbers guy and found this to be an interesting threshold for his analysis of solar minima.
                        Despite the lack of sunspots, hams are still communicating around the world, and reports of working 3B7C with modest stations are still coming in. WA2VQW worked them on 30 meters from his car at 2115z on September 18 while sitting at a traffic light in Hawthorne, New York. Mike was on his way to higher ground, but never made it, instead working the DXpedition while stuck in traffic. W4WNT of Oak Island, North Carolina reports a 30 meter 3B7C contact at 0212z on September 22 using an 80-20 meter fan dipole bent around his deck at 30 feet.
                        On September 18, Ken Tata, K1KT of Warwick, Rhode Island noticed an online propagation map tracking 2 meter APRS stations showed a path from Rhode Island to Newfoundland's Avalon Peninsula. Ken was running 50 watts into a dipole, a driven element removed from an 11 element Yagi and mounted on a pole. He reports, ''I worked VE1PZ, in FN85, 100 mi north of Halifax; VE1HD, FN95, 100 mi east of Halifax; and VE1AHM, FN76, near Moncton, New Brunswick''. He reported that many of the better equipped stations in Southern New England were working into the Maritime Provinces on 432 and 1296 MHz. Ken didn't say what mode he used. Ken sent along web-based VHF propagation sites he likes for checking real-time conditions:
                        http://www.mountainlake.k12.mn.us/ham/aprs/,
                        http://www.dxinfocentre.com/tropo.html,
                        http://www.vhfdx.net/spots/map.php, and
                        http://dxworld.com/144prop.html.
                        This weekend is the Texas QSO Party (see http://txqp.net), and if I
                        were in California, to work Texas I would try 15 meters 1900-2230z, 20 meters 1500-0230z, 40 meters any time, but best bet probably 0200-1200z, and 80 meters 0230-1230z.
                        From Atlanta to Texas try 20 meters 1830-2030z, 40 meters best 2230-0230z, 80 meters 2200-1330z.
                        From Seattle, 15 meters 1930-2230z, 20 meters 2100-0300z, 40 meters best 0130-1230z and weakest 1630-2100z, 80 meters 0300-1300z.
                        From California, 15 meters 1900-2230z, 20 meters 1500-0230z, 40 meters best 0130-1230z and weakest 1700-2130z. 80 meters best 0300-1200z.
                        From New York, 20 meters 1500-0030z, 40 meters best 2330-1130z and weakest 1530-2000z, 80 meters 0130-1030z.
                        From Ohio, 20 meters 1500-2300z, 40 meters almost around the clock, but 0630-1030z may be questionable, and best signals 2200-0400z and 1130-1400z. 80 meters 2230-1300z, with strongest signals 0030-0200z and around 1130z, weakest signals 1600-1930z.
                        All of these are best guesses worked out with W6ELprop. Look for details on using this tool in back issues of this bulletin.
                        If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k7ra@....
                        For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at
                        http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed
                        explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see
                        http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past
                        propagation bulletins is at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly
                        propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/.
                        Sunspot numbers for September 20 through 26 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 and 0 with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 66.8, 66.9, 66.7, 66.3, 66.1, 66.2, and 66.5 with a mean of 66.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 9, 11, 15, 10, 6 and 3 with a mean of 9.1.
                        Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 7, 10, 11, 7, 5 and 2, with a mean of 6.9.
                        NNNN


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