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Sierras in for a big winter?

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  • skrapp138
    I saw this article and thought it was worth passing along http://blog.sfgate.com/ski/2013/09/16/oaks-bears-almanac-predict-big-winter/ I live in southern CA
    Message 1 of 6 , Sep 17, 2013
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      I saw this article and thought it was worth passing along

      http://blog.sfgate.com/ski/2013/09/16/oaks-bears-almanac-predict-big-winter/

      I live in southern CA and the birch trees on our property started turning in the beginning of August (WAY early) which led me to think we might be in for it this winter (which we desperately need!). But, as I had to postpone my JMT hike for next Sept it's going to be interesting to watch the conditions this winter and see how this pans out for my hike next summer in contrast to this super-dry year!
    • Joe MacLeish
      Speaking of which, where do we go for winter forecasts beside s the Old Farmer s Almanac? so far I see dryer than normal, normal and slightly heavier than
      Message 2 of 6 , Sep 17, 2013
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        Speaking of which, where do we go for winter forecasts beside s the Old Farmer's Almanac?   so far I see dryer than normal, normal and slightly heavier than normal.  John D - do you guys only forecast backward or ...

        Joe

         

        From: johnmuirtrail@yahoogroups.com [mailto:johnmuirtrail@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of xericamunsonx@...
        Sent: Tuesday, September 17, 2013 11:22 AM
        To: johnmuirtrail@yahoogroups.com
        Subject: [John Muir Trail] Sierras in for a big winter?

         

         

        I saw this article and thought it was worth passing along

        http://blog.sfgate.com/ski/2013/09/16/oaks-bears-almanac-predict-big-winter/

         

        I live in southern CA and the birch trees on our property started turning in the beginning of August (WAY early) which led me to think we might be in for it this winter (which we desperately need!). But, as I had to postpone my JMT hike for next Sept it's going to be interesting to watch the conditions this winter and see how this pans out for my hike next summer in contrast to this super-dry year!

      • Peter Burke
        trees are turning to fall colors early most likely because they are stressed and dryer than normal this time of year. I saw sings of fall in August at higher
        Message 3 of 6 , Sep 17, 2013
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          trees are turning to fall colors early most likely because they are stressed and dryer than normal this time of year. I saw sings of fall in August at higher elevations. Dry plants, a few cold nights, you got early fall. Has nothing to do with a big winter. Cold does not equal lots of precip.

          In fact, I recently read that the actual "average precip" all California math is based on was established during a period that was unusually wet. It may be much more normal to be dryer than what is considered normal now.

          take a look at this article for a possibly alarming discovery, one that means it can get a lot dryer than it is now:

          http://www.moonshineink.com/sections/spot-news/lake-could-unlock-mystery-sierra-nevada-megadroughts
        • johndittli
          Joe We don t put a lot of faith in long term forecasts which meteorologists themselves claim 50% accuracy at best; in other words, a roll of the dice. As far
          Message 4 of 6 , Sep 17, 2013
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            Joe


            We don't put a lot of faith in long term forecasts which meteorologists themselves claim 50% accuracy at best; in other words, a roll of the dice. As far as fall being a bit early, it is true in the leaves turning a couple of weeks early (see my FB page for current photos). But as Peter said, early fall doesn't mean big or even early winter. We had a pretty good cold snap here in early August that got some of the sugars flowing. 


            So yes, we only forecasts swe (snow/water equivalent) after it has already fallen from the sky. It's much easier that way ;-)


            JD



            --- In johnmuirtrail@yahoogroups.com, <pburke@...> wrote:

            trees are turning to fall colors early most likely because they are stressed and dryer than normal this time of year. I saw sings of fall in August at higher elevations. Dry plants, a few cold nights, you got early fall. Has nothing to do with a big winter. Cold does not equal lots of precip.

            In fact, I recently read that the actual "average precip" all California math is based on was established during a period that was unusually wet. It may be much more normal to be dryer than what is considered normal now.

            take a look at this article for a possibly alarming discovery, one that means it can get a lot dryer than it is now:

            http://www.moonshineink.com/sections/spot-news/lake-could-unlock-mystery-sierra-nevada-megadroughts
          • johndittli
            And yes, it can, and has, gotten a lot drier in the the not so distant past. Unfortunately for the west, most of the water development was allocated on the
            Message 5 of 6 , Sep 17, 2013
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              And yes, it can, and has, gotten a lot drier in the the not so distant past. Unfortunately for the west, most of the water development was allocated on the heals of the Little Ice Age when precip and associated runoff was likely on the higher side of mean.


              Time will tell.


              JD



              --- In johnmuirtrail@yahoogroups.com, <pburke@...> wrote:

              trees are turning to fall colors early most likely because they are stressed and dryer than normal this time of year. I saw sings of fall in August at higher elevations. Dry plants, a few cold nights, you got early fall. Has nothing to do with a big winter. Cold does not equal lots of precip.

              In fact, I recently read that the actual "average precip" all California math is based on was established during a period that was unusually wet. It may be much more normal to be dryer than what is considered normal now.

              take a look at this article for a possibly alarming discovery, one that means it can get a lot dryer than it is now:

              http://www.moonshineink.com/sections/spot-news/lake-could-unlock-mystery-sierra-nevada-megadroughts
            • johndittli
              Here ya go; La Nada likely to continue thru Spring 2014 . That pretty much means anything goes for this winter!
              Message 6 of 6 , Sep 17, 2013
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                Here ya go; "La Nada likely to continue thru Spring 2014". That pretty much means "anything goes" for this winter!  http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=82041&src=eoa-iotd 


                JD



                --- In johnmuirtrail@yahoogroups.com, <johndittli@...> wrote:

                And yes, it can, and has, gotten a lot drier in the the not so distant past. Unfortunately for the west, most of the water development was allocated on the heals of the Little Ice Age when precip and associated runoff was likely on the higher side of mean.


                Time will tell.


                JD



                --- In johnmuirtrail@yahoogroups.com, <pburke@...> wrote:

                trees are turning to fall colors early most likely because they are stressed and dryer than normal this time of year. I saw sings of fall in August at higher elevations. Dry plants, a few cold nights, you got early fall. Has nothing to do with a big winter. Cold does not equal lots of precip.

                In fact, I recently read that the actual "average precip" all California math is based on was established during a period that was unusually wet. It may be much more normal to be dryer than what is considered normal now.

                take a look at this article for a possibly alarming discovery, one that means it can get a lot dryer than it is now:

                http://www.moonshineink.com/sections/spot-news/lake-could-unlock-mystery-sierra-nevada-megadroughts
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