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Re: [John Muir Trail] Re: Possible fire near Lake Edison

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  • John Ladd
    I see what Chris means. My guesstimates may be off. The original jumping of the bulldozed firelines I noticed on earlier versions of the map do appear worse on
    Message 1 of 84 , Jul 31, 2013
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      I see what Chris means. My guesstimates may be off. The original jumping of the bulldozed firelines I noticed on earlier versions of the map do appear worse on the one he links to. What I don't fully understand is the lack of change in reported acreage. It maybe the figures given are for actively burning area so that a day that adds 1000 Acres but has burned out on 1000 Acres still has the same number listed. That could reconcile the spread indicated by the map with the relatively unchanged numbers given for acreage.

      I still think that how bad it is depends critically 1) your respiratory sensitivity and 2) on inversion layer and wind direction and exactly where you are in the area, with Bear Ridge  to Reds meadow currently the worst. If i were scheduled to leave HI this weekend, I'd soldier on, but someone with asthma probably shouldn't and others will make their own decisions. An entry via Kaiser Pass Road (permits easy at Prather Ranger Station of Sierra NF) and the Lake Florence ferry and then south (perhaps adding a loop in SEKI) could be a good Plan B if people want to avoid smoke and keep part of their plans.





      John Curran Ladd
      1616 Castro Street
      San Francisco, CA  94114-3707
      415-648-9279


      On Wed, Jul 31, 2013 at 7:26 PM, Chris <cehauser1@...> wrote:
       

      John:

      Several days ago, you said you thought they'd have the fire contained by this coming weekend. At the time, I was in total agreement, as I knew the fire was stalled on the west and north edges, and I had anticipated the fire would be contained when it reached the eastern fire break.

      Unfortunately, based on today's "Day Shift Planning" map, things have deteriorated in the past day. The fire has skipped across the entire length of the southern and eastern fire breaks, and crews have pulled back 3-4 miles to the east to set up a secondary fire break (there was already a secondary southern fire break). Also, the fire has burned into the Kaiser Wilderness to the SE, which was something they had hoped to prevent.

      Here's the map I'm talking about:
      http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/photos/CASNF/2013-07-24-1129-Aspen-Fire/picts/2013_07_31-15.11.31.217-CDT.jpeg
      or
      http://tinyurl.com/m6fmvzm

      If this secondary fire break doesn't hold, and if the current weather pattern holds, the fire will burn further to the east until it reaches the bare rock along the South Fork of the San Joaquin River (downstream of Mono Hot Springs). This puts the fire at about 30,000 acres, and within 5-6 miles from VVR. Either way, it looks like there will be at least 2-3 more weeks of smoke blowing into the JMT.

      Chris.



      --- In johnmuirtrail@yahoogroups.com, John Ladd <johnladd@...> wrote:
      >
      > Afternoon update - 35% contained (up from 30%). No reported change in
      > acreage or number of firefighters. Wind continues to be from the South,
      > good for JMT smoke exposures. Temperatures moderate
      >
      > Remarks largely unchanged: "Fire burned actively last night. Indirect line
      > preparation for firing operations on the east side of the fire. The Very
      > Large Air Tanker (VLAT)- DC-10 continues to be utilized on the fire for
      > retardant application."
      >
      > The map for today does show some further fire spread where it jumped the
      > bulldozed fireline.
      >
      > http://www.inciweb.org/incident/3552
      >
      > Most interesting new info since last post
      >
      > From Fresno Bee
      >
      > " It is following the same footprint as a 39,000-acre fire that burned in
      > 1939, said Bill White, public information officer with the Central Sierra
      > Interagency Incident Management Team."
      >
      >
      > On Wed, Jul 31, 2013 at 9:29 AM, John Ladd <johnladd@...> wrote:
      > > This morning's update: 35% contained (up from 30%), 14,332 acres (very
      > > minimally larger) and still 1,792 firefighters. Wind from South, which
      > > should help with smoke on JMT (our prevailing winds from the West blow
      > > smoke straight toward the JMT). Remarks essentially unchanged.
      > >
      > >
      > >
      > > On Tue, Jul 30, 2013 at 10:40 PM, John Ladd <johnladd@...> wrote:
      > >
      > >> Update for this evening: now 30% contained (up from 20%), 1792
      > >> firefighters (up from 1672). No update on acerage. Today's wind from
      > >> the SW.
      > >>
      > >> Initial spread was toward the NNW, now veering more NW. Still a long
      > >> way from the JMT
      > >>
      > >> Today's Remarks read: "Fire burned actively today. Indirect line
      > >> preparation for firing operations on the east side of the fire. The
      > >> Very Large Air Tanker (VLAT)- DC-10 was utilized on the fire
      > >> yesterday. Crews continue to use direct attack when possible."
      > >>
      > >> The planned "firing operations" (backfires) will likely worsen smoke
      > >> conditions temporarily but should be a major advance in stopping
      > >> further spread in the direction of the JMT, Lake Edison etc.
      > >>
      > >> On Tue, Jul 30, 2013 at 7:13 AM, John Ladd <johnladd@...> wrote:
      > >>> This morning's update, 14,147 acres Still showing 20% contained, 1672
      > >>> firefighters. Main line of advance of the fire toward the NNW.
      > >>>
      > >>> "Good progress with indirect line is being made on the northwest side
      > >>> of the fire. Indirect line has been completed on the north east and
      > >>> southwest sides of the fire. The Very Large Air Tanker (VLAT)- D.C. 10
      > >>> was utilized on the fire yesterday. Crews continue to use direct
      > >>> attack when possible and are making good progress."
      > >>>
      > >>> On Mon, Jul 29, 2013 at 8:29 PM, John Ladd <johnladd@...> wrote:
      > >>>> Update: Now 1672 firefighters. Extent and percent containment (11,019
      > Acres
      > >>>> and 20%) unchanged in this update. They added this to Remarks:
      > >>>>
      > >>>> "The Very Large Air Tanker (VLAT)- D.C. 10 was utilized on the fire
      > >>>> yesterday and today. "
      > >>>>
      > >>>> DC-10 is a very big plane.
      > >>>>
      > >>>>
      > >>>>
      > >>>>
      > >>>> Link topic if it does not appear above:
      > >>>>
      > >>>>
      > http://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/images/uploadedfiles/editorial/pictures/2010/01/19/DC10.jpg
      > >>>>
      > >>>> On Mon, Jul 29, 2013 at 9:06 AM, John Ladd <johnladd@...> wrote:
      > >>>>>
      > >>>>> Latest update: 11,019 acres, 20% contained, 1479 firefighters.
      > Spreading
      > >>>>> mostly on north-south axis (actually NNE-SSW). Wind from West (blowing
      > >>>>> toward JMT). No significant JMT closure threat but smoke presumably
      > remains
      > >>>>> bad.
      > >>>>>
      > >>>>> Current comment
      > >>>>>
      > >>>>> "Good progress with indirect line is being made on the northwest side
      > of
      > >>>>> the fire. Indirect line has been completed on the southwest side of
      > the
      > >>>>> fire. Air resources were grounded most of yesterday because of the
      > inversion
      > >>>>> lifting late in the afternoon. The Very Large Air Tanker (VLAT)- D.C.
      > 10 was
      > >>>>> utilized on the fire yesterday. Crews continue to use direct attack
      > when
      > >>>>> possible. Access to the lower portions of the fire along the San
      > Joaquin
      > >>>>> River's edge is an obstacle. Smoke from the fire continues to impact
      > the San
      > >>>>> Joaquin Valley."
      > >>>>>
      > >>>>> Planned action:
      > >>>>>
      > >>>>> "Continue to build and prepare indirect line on the east side of the
      > >>>>> fire."
      > >>>>>
      > >>>>> An indirect line is a firebreak away from the edge of the fire. A
      > direct
      > >>>>> attack is trying to prevent spread at the edge of the fire or
      > treating the
      > >>>>> fire itself (e.g., water or retardant on the fire itself).
      > >>>>>
      > >>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wildfire_suppression#Tactics
      > >>>>>
      > >>>>> Updates at
      > >>>>>
      > >>>>> http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/3552/
      > >>>>>
      > >>>>>
      > >>>>> On Sun, Jul 28, 2013 at 8:46 PM, John Ladd <johnladd@...> wrote:
      > >>>>> > Still reporting 8,927 acres, 15% contained, 1187 firefighters, wind
      > >>>>> > still
      > >>>>> > from NW. Another inversion today grounded most of the air resources
      > >>>>> > until
      > >>>>> > late afternoon. Fire spread is mostly toward the North.
      > >>>>> >
      > >>>>> > Note, the numbers are the same as this a.m. The numbers will
      > probably be
      > >>>>> > updated later tonight..
      > >>>>> >
      > >>>>> > http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/3552/
      > >>>>> >
      > >>>>> > Thanks to Judy, John D with actual experience on the ground for
      > sending
      > >>>>> > information! Any other information from the field appreciated. I'm
      > just
      > >>>>> > stuck at this damn computer. A poster on the FB group says "The
      > smoke
      > >>>>> > was so
      > >>>>> > bad in Humphrey's basin we had to leave early. We couldn't see the
      > >>>>> > mountains
      > >>>>> > closest to us and our eyes burned with the smoke." Humphreys Basin
      > is a
      > >>>>> > bit
      > >>>>> > Southeast of Muir Trail Ranch.
      > >>>>> >
      > >>>>> > On Sun, Jul 28, 2013 at 8:16 AM, John Ladd <johnladd@...>

      > wrote:
      > >>>>> >>
      > >>>>> >> Grown some overnight to 8927, still 15% contained, more
      > firefighters
      > >>>>> >> brought in (now 1187). Wind still from the NW, blowing smoke
      > toward the
      > >>>>> >> JMT.
      > >>>>> >> They expect another inversion, which will trap smoke near the
      > ground.
      > >>>>> >>
      > >>>>> >> Still a LONG way east from the JMT itself and still headed more
      > North
      > >>>>> >> than
      > >>>>> >> West
      > >>>>> >>
      > >>>>> >> "Good progress with indirect line is being made on the northwest
      > side
      > >>>>> >> of
      > >>>>> >> the fire. Air resources may be grounded most of the day because of
      > the
      > >>>>> >> inversion lifting late in the afternoon"
      > >>>>> >>
      > >>>>> >>
      > >>>>> >> http://www.inciweb.org/incident/3552/
      > >>>>> >>
      > >>>>> >>
      > >>>>> >>
      > >>>>> >> On Sat, Jul 27, 2013 at 7:28 PM, John Ladd <johnladd@...>

      > wrote:
      > >>>>> >> >
      > >>>>> >> > 6821 acres, 15% contained, still 1012 firefighters. There was
      > another
      > >>>>> >> > inversion again today, not lifting until the late afternoon.
      > Heavy
      > >>>>> >> > smoke,
      > >>>>> >> > trapped in the inversion layer, grounded the air resources
      > directed
      > >>>>> >> > at the
      > >>>>> >> > fire until late afternoon.
      > >>>>> >> >
      > >>>>> >> > http://www.inciweb.org/incident/3552/
      > >>>>> >> >
      > >>>>> >> > On Sat, Jul 27, 2013 at 1:52 PM, John Ladd <johnladd@...>

      > >>>>> >> > wrote:
      > >>>>> >> >>
      > >>>>> >> >> 6693 acres, 10% contained, 1012 firefighters. Headed mostly
      > north,
      > >>>>> >> >> but
      > >>>>> >> >> prevailing winds will continue to blow smoke toward JMT. Wind
      > >>>>> >> >> presently from
      > >>>>> >> >> NW, worst possible direction for the smoke on JMT. Hopefully no
      > >>>>> >> >> inversion
      > >>>>> >> >> today.
      > >>>>> >> >>
      > >>>>> >> >> On Fri, Jul 26, 2013 at 8:08 PM, John Ladd <johnladd@...>

      > >>>>> >> >> wrote:
      > >>>>> >> >>>
      > >>>>> >> >>> Latest update
      > >>>>> >> >>>
      > >>>>> >> >>> Has grown to 4789 acres (7.5 square miles), 5% contained (first
      > >>>>> >> >>> time
      > >>>>> >> >>> above 0%), crews again increased to 993 firefighters. Inversion
      > >>>>> >> >>> layer
      > >>>>> >> >>> trapped smoke close to the ground today. Presently headed more
      > >>>>> >> >>> North than
      > >>>>> >> >>> East (good for us).
      > >>>>> >> >>>
      > >>>>> >> >>> All trails in the Kaiser Wilderness now closed. But it is much
      > >>>>> >> >>> closer
      > >>>>> >> >>> to the fire than the JMT is.
      > >>>>> >> >>>
      > >>>>> >> >>> Likely to continue to be unpleasant to the East of the fire,
      > but
      > >>>>> >> >>> unlikely (I hope) to close the trial.
      > >>>>> >> >>>
      > >>>>> >> >>>
      > >>>>> >
      > >>>>> >
      > >>>>
      >


    • John Ladd
      ... Chris - Thanks for the great reports, John Curran Ladd 1616 Castro Street San Francisco, CA 94114-3707 415-648-9279
      Message 84 of 84 , Aug 10, 2013
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        On Sat, Aug 10, 2013 at 9:11 PM, Chris <cehauser1@...> wrote:

        This morning they posted what they are saying is the final fire update for the Aspen Fire. For that reason, I'll call this report my final report too. (Also, I'm leaving for my JMT hike this Friday, so the timing is good.)

        Chris - Thanks for the great reports,

        John Curran Ladd
        1616 Castro Street
        San Francisco, CA  94114-3707
        415-648-9279
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