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Re: [John Muir Trail] Number of JMT permits this year?

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  • Ned Tibbits
    Just lived it, really. I began planning my PCT thru hike when I was 15 in 1972 and when there was no one to talk to about it. Sure, Ryback published in 1970 or
    Message 1 of 18 , May 23, 2013
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      Just lived it, really.
       
      I began planning my PCT thru hike when I was 15 in 1972 and when there was no one to talk to about it. Sure, Ryback published in 1970 or so, but you couldn’t just pick up the phone and call someone who had done the trail back then. Even the Rangers didn’t know much. We didn’t have the online trail community like we do now! Essentially, I was in the dark for details and had to rely on my own experience with what I anticipated to be my future trail realities (snow, creeks, weather, no trail in existence, no signage, no people on-trail, few people at trailheads, ranger stations not being open, little local food sources like now, etc.).
       
      After my CDT trip in 1980, I started Mountain Education to help people learn how to deal with these “Realities of the Trail” so they could do a long hike or at least stay in the backcountry long enough to soak some of it up. I always stayed aware of any news about “thru hikers” since my experiences changed my life as a young man. I wanted to talk to someone who had done the PCT to see if they felt on their journey the same or similar personal, internal changes that I did, but communication wasn’t as prolific as it is now and I didn’t meet one until 2005 when I heard about the PCT Kickoff assembly down near San Diego.
       
      So, my “stats” are not from anywhere, just my own awareness of the subject over the years.
       
       
      Ned Tibbits, Director
      Mountain Education
      www.mountaineducation.org
       
      From: John
      Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2013 10:19 AM
      Subject: Re: [John Muir Trail] Number of JMT permits this year?
       
       


      Interesting statistics Ned, where did you get your data?

      John

      --- In mailto:johnmuirtrail%40yahoogroups.com, "Ned Tibbits" <ned@...> wrote:

      >
      > Historically, the PCT
      completion-in-one-season rate hovered around 10% during the “early years” of the 1970s and ‘80s, climbed into the 20% bracket in the ‘90s, hit about 25% after 2000, and is closer to 30% mark currently.

    • John
      Parallel universes Ned! I too was in the PCT planning phases at 15 (1973) and attempted the walk (incomplete) the year after high school graduation ( 76). It
      Message 2 of 18 , May 23, 2013
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        Parallel universes Ned! I too was in the PCT planning phases at 15 (1973) and attempted the walk (incomplete) the year after high school graduation ('76). It was all about figuring it out yourself. The trail only existed as a red line some people drew on a bunch of maps (I still have those maps!!!)

        Ryback was my hero (still have the book(s) too!).

        John

        --- In johnmuirtrail@yahoogroups.com, "Ned Tibbits" <ned@...> wrote:
        >
        > Just lived it, really.
        >
        > I began planning my PCT thru hike when I was 15 in 1972 and when there was no one to talk to about it. Sure, Ryback published in 1970 or so, but you couldn’t just pick up the phone and call someone who had done the trail back then. Even the Rangers didn’t know much. We didn’t have the online trail community like we do now! Essentially, I was in the dark for details and had to rely on my own experience with what I anticipated to be my future trail realities (snow, creeks, weather, no trail in existence, no signage, no people on-trail, few people at trailheads, ranger stations not being open, little local food sources like now, etc.).
      • Frank Dumville
        Yes, the PCTA issues a completion certificate for section hikers as well as thruhikers. I ve been issued three permits from the PCTA for long section hikes
        Message 3 of 18 , May 23, 2013
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          Yes, the PCTA issues a completion certificate for section hikers as well as thruhikers.
          I've been issued three permits from the PCTA for long section hikes resulting in one completion certificate. That would come out to a 33% completion rate.
           
          Snap

           
          From: John <johndittli@...>
           
          the completion # may include those that completed over several seasons, so the attrition could be skewed.

        • John
          This would only be true if you got three permits in one season and then completed the hike in that same season, not sure why you would do that though.
          Message 4 of 18 , May 24, 2013
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            This would only be true if you got three permits in one season and then completed the hike in that same season, not sure why you would do that though. Congratulations on your completion!

            John

            --- In johnmuirtrail@yahoogroups.com, Frank Dumville wrote:
            >
            > Yes, the PCTA issues a completion certificate for section hikers as well as thruhikers.
            > I've been issued three permits from the PCTA for long section hikes resulting in one completion certificate. That would come out to a 33% completion rate.
            >  
            > Snap
            >
            >  
            >
            > ________________________________
            > From: John johndittli@...
            >  the completion # may include those that completed over several seasons, so the attrition could be skewed.
            >
          • Frank Dumville
            My point was that I and others that aren t thruhikers are often included in the permit and completion numbers skewing the results. Snap  
            Message 5 of 18 , May 24, 2013
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              My point was that I and others that aren't thruhikers are often included in the permit and completion numbers skewing the results.
              Snap
               
              From: John <johndittli@...>
               
              This would only be true if you got three permits in one season and then completed the hike in that same season, not sure why you would do that though. Congratulations on your completion!

              may include those that completed over several seasons, so the attrition could be skewed. >
            • John
              Ok, I get that, thank you. I had a long talk with the PCTA today and found out some interesting, though not as informative as I had hoped for, information.
              Message 6 of 18 , May 24, 2013
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                Ok, I get that, thank you. I had a long talk with the PCTA today and found out some interesting, though not as informative as I had hoped for, information.

                First off there is a spike in permits this year due in large part to the fact they went from group permits to actually issuing each individual a permit; BIG difference.

                I also found out that they do specifically record thru hike permits, and they do record those that finish the same year they started. However it's all moot as they have all the info but have never processed it!! With the exception of last year when someone volunteered 100+ hours to crunch some data. That's where the ~800 starts and ~350 finisher numbers came from for 2012.

                I talked to the Yosemite people last year and they are beginning to pay more attention to permits issued there with Whitney area exit points.

                Probably not a lot of people interested in this, but I'm trying to pin some numbers on the trends.

                Thanks again for your input.

                John


                --- In johnmuirtrail@yahoogroups.com, Frank Dumville <nccctsd@...> wrote:
                >
                > My point was that I and others that aren't thruhikers are often included in the permit and completion numbers skewing the results.
                >
                > Snap
                >  
                >
                > ________________________________
                > From: John <johndittli@...>
                >  This would only be true if you got three permits in one season and then completed the hike in that same season, not sure why you would do that though. Congratulations on your completion!
                >
                > may include those that completed over several seasons, so the attrition could be skewed.>
                >
              • Ned Tibbits
                Son of a gun, John, I had no idea! Another reason why someday we’ve got to meet! I’ve got that stupid B&W, red-lined, USFS map book of the PCT in CA, too!
                Message 7 of 18 , Jun 3, 2013
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                  Son of a gun, John, I had no idea! Another reason why someday we’ve got to meet! I’ve got that stupid B&W, red-lined, USFS map book of the PCT in CA, too!
                   
                   
                  Ned Tibbits, Director
                  Mountain Education
                  www.mountaineducation.org
                   
                  From: John
                  Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2013 1:43 PM
                  Subject: [John Muir Trail] Re: Number of JMT permits this year?
                   
                   

                  Parallel universes Ned! I too was in the PCT planning phases at 15 (1973) and attempted the walk (incomplete) the year after high school graduation ('76). It was all about figuring it out yourself. The trail only existed as a red line some people drew on a bunch of maps (I still have those maps!!!)

                  Ryback was my hero (still have the book(s) too!).

                  John

                  --- In mailto:johnmuirtrail%40yahoogroups.com, "Ned Tibbits" <ned@...> wrote:

                  >
                  > Just lived it, really.
                  >
                  > I began planning my PCT thru hike when I was 15 in 1972 and
                  when there was no one to talk to about it. Sure, Ryback published in 1970 or so, but you couldn’t just pick up the phone and call someone who had done the trail back then. Even the Rangers didn’t know much. We didn’t have the online trail community like we do now! Essentially, I was in the dark for details and had to rely on my own experience with what I anticipated to be my future trail realities (snow, creeks, weather, no trail in existence, no signage, no people on-trail, few people at trailheads, ranger stations not being open, little local food sources like now, etc.).

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