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Re: Predictive value of early winter snowpack

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  • trail2nowhere
    good stuff
    Message 1 of 10 , Jan 2, 2012
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      good stuff

      --- In johnmuirtrail@yahoogroups.com, John Ladd <johnladd@...> wrote:
      >
      > See
      >
      > http://www.skimountaineer.com/CascadeSki/CascadeSnow/MammothMtnSnowfall.gif
      >
      > Note that a low snowfall through Jan 1 (top of the buff-colored segment in
      > the graph at top right of the link above) has some predictive force on low
      > total snowfall but there are years with very low snow before Jan 1 but an
      > average or above-average year as of May 1. E.g., see the bars for
      > 1999-2000 and 2000-01. We may be able to easily hike the JMT starting
      > mid-June this year, but I still think you should have a "Plan B" in case we
      > get major snows in Jan-Feb-Mar or a late melt.
      >
      > That said, many years with a low pre-Jan 1 snowfall have a low total
      > snowfall
      >
      > I got the link from an interesting discussion thread titled "Sierra
      > Weather" at
      >
      > http://yosemitenews.info
      >
      > I think you must be a member to view the thread. Good group, but so much
      > traffic that I read only a small percent of it.
      >
      > John Curran Ladd
      > 1616 Castro Street
      > San Francisco, CA 94114-3707
      > 415-648-9279
      >
    • Roleigh Martin
      Yes, YosemiteNews.Info is a high volume group but I follow it through Google Reader and each posting only shows up as a new one-liner in Google Reader. Only
      Message 2 of 10 , Jan 2, 2012
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        Yes, YosemiteNews.Info is a high volume group but I follow it through Google Reader and each posting only shows up as a new one-liner in Google Reader.  Only if I want to explore that post do I click on it and get either the whole post or an excerpt of the post.  If I want more, I click on it again and go to the web site/forum.  Yes, I had to register with the forum, but then I was able to follow it through Google Reader. 

        John, any clue on what water resupply points on the JMT are not there in a super dry year in Mid-July to Late August?
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        Visit Roleigh's Google Profile
        _

      • John Ladd
        ... I don t really have any great experience hiking JMT in dry years, but there is so much water readily available on the JMT, I have a hard time believing it
        Message 3 of 10 , Jan 2, 2012
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          On Mon, Jan 2, 2012 at 1:58 PM, Roleigh Martin <roleigh@...> wrote:
           

          ... John, any clue on what water resupply points on the JMT are not there in a super dry year in Mid-July to Late August?


          I don't really have any great experience hiking JMT in dry years, but there is so much water readily available on the JMT, I have a hard time believing it would be much of a problem.  If hiking South, you can always ask people hiking North when they last crossed water.  And the many lakes along the trail aren't going to go dry

        • Roleigh Martin
          I figure the one water supply lost that I d hate to see go is the undocumented water supply about 45-50 up the hill (going south) from Quail Meadows (there
          Message 4 of 10 , Jan 2, 2012
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            I figure the one water supply lost that I'd hate to see go is the undocumented water supply about 45-50" up the hill (going south) from Quail Meadows (there are 3 points of the trail where you can hear a creek (normally) about 50-100 feet to the left of lefthand corners of switchbacks).  You don't see water on the maps or the books at this point, and so many bulk up with water from Quail Meadows to Bear Ridge Creek as it is a very long stretch, but there has always been water there for me about 45 to 50" minutes up the trail.
            -------------------------------------------------
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            _

          • Matt Ruby
            If you hike at even a modest hiking pace 1 mile per hour, you should have no problem finding water.  I did an October hike in 2008, a dry year, and had no
            Message 5 of 10 , Jan 2, 2012
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              If you hike at even a modest hiking pace 1 mile per hour, you should have no problem finding water.  I did an October hike in 2008, a dry year, and had no issues.  Just make sure you camel up before the passes.
              Cheers,
              Matt
              JMT 08, 09, 11     

              --- On Mon, 1/2/12, John Ladd <johnladd@...> wrote:

              From: John Ladd <johnladd@...>
              Subject: Re: [John Muir Trail] Predictive value of early winter snowpack
              To: johnmuirtrail@yahoogroups.com
              Date: Monday, January 2, 2012, 11:37 PM

               


              On Mon, Jan 2, 2012 at 1:58 PM, Roleigh Martin <roleigh@...> wrote:
               

              ... John, any clue on what water resupply points on the JMT are not there in a super dry year in Mid-July to Late August?


              I don't really have any great experience hiking JMT in dry years, but there is so much water readily available on the JMT, I have a hard time believing it would be much of a problem.  If hiking South, you can always ask people hiking North when they last crossed water.  And the many lakes along the trail aren't going to go dry

            • trail2nowhere
              Here s what I m talking about http://www.tahoebonanza.com/article/20120103/NEWS/120109988/1061&ParentProfile=1050
              Message 6 of 10 , Jan 4, 2012
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                Here's what I'm talking about
                http://www.tahoebonanza.com/article/20120103/NEWS/120109988/1061&ParentProfile=1050


                --- In johnmuirtrail@yahoogroups.com, Matt Ruby <mattruby@...> wrote:
                >
                > If you hike at even a modest hiking pace 1 mile per hour, you should have no problem finding water.  I did an October hike in 2008, a dry year, and had no issues.  Just make sure you camel up before the passes.Cheers,MattJMT 08, 09, 11     
                >
                > --- On Mon, 1/2/12, John Ladd <johnladd@...> wrote:
                >
                > From: John Ladd <johnladd@...>
                > Subject: Re: [John Muir Trail] Predictive value of early winter snowpack
                > To: johnmuirtrail@yahoogroups.com
                > Date: Monday, January 2, 2012, 11:37 PM
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                > On Mon, Jan 2, 2012 at 1:58 PM, Roleigh Martin <roleigh@...> wrote:
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                > ... John, any clue on what water resupply points on the JMT are not there in a super dry year in Mid-July to Late August?
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                > I don't really have any great experience hiking JMT in dry years, but
                > there is so much water readily available on the JMT, I have a hard time
                > believing it would be much of a problem.  If hiking South, you can always ask people hiking North when they last crossed water.  And the many lakes along the trail aren't going to go dry
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              • John Ladd
                Accuweather is starting to predict some snowfall for the week of Jan 15 http://www.accuweather.com/us/ca/yosemite-national-park/95389/forecast-month.asp We can
                Message 7 of 10 , Jan 6, 2012
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                  Accuweather is starting to predict some snowfall for the week of Jan 15

                  http://www.accuweather.com/us/ca/yosemite-national-park/95389/forecast-month.asp

                  We can hope

                  Weather.com only does a 10-day forecast and it does not include any snow

                  http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/Yosemite+National+Park+CA+CANPYOSE:13

                  John Curran Ladd
                  1616 Castro Street
                  San Francisco, CA  94114-3707
                  415-648-9279


                • Mark Liechty
                  ... Seems the weather people are never very reliable. Lot of reasons but it is what it is. John on the other hand has proven to be very reliable in my time
                  Message 8 of 10 , Jan 6, 2012
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                    On Jan 6, 2012, at 6:28 AM, John Ladd wrote:
                    Weather.com only does a 10-day forecast and it does not include any snow 
                    #########

                    Seems the weather people are never very reliable.   Lot of reasons but it is what it is.

                    John on the other hand has proven to be very reliable in my time lurking on this list.

                    Sooooo lets solve the problem once and for all.

                    I move that we vote to have John be responsible for getting us the needed levels of snow in the Sierra within the next couple of weeks.

                    Do I get a second for the motion?


                    Mark "Blankie" Liechty
                  • Matt
                    I hiked the trail in 2007, which was a very dry year. I don t remember having any long stretches without access to water. The longest I can remember was Deer
                    Message 9 of 10 , Jan 6, 2012
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                      I hiked the trail in 2007, which was a very dry year.

                      I don't remember having any long stretches without access to water. The longest I can remember was Deer Creek to Duck Creek (but that is often without water in any event).

                      The only real practical neagive I remember was the extra mile or so (seemed like 5 miles) through the mud to get to the VVR ferry, as Lake Edison was substantially low (of course, this isn't technically on the JMT).

                      I suppose I'm sort of a wimp but I actually prefer dry years because, in prime season (late July through early September), three aspects of the hike are substantially easier: (1) stream crossings; (2) going over passes; and (3) dealing with mossies. I agree that the hike is somewhat less scenic in dry years, but the High Sierras are already so scenic to begin with.
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