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30713Re: [John Muir Trail] Number of JMT permits this year?

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  • Ned Tibbits
    May 23, 2013
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      Historically, the PCT completion-in-one-season rate hovered around 10% during the “early years” of the 1970s and ‘80s, climbed into the 20% bracket in the ‘90s, hit about 25% after 2000, and is closer to 30% mark currently.
       
      Since we have been trying to educate and train aspiring thru hikers from 1982, we have found (probably to no one’s surprise) that few really know what they’re in for! Most, I think, romanticize the experience while the majority of the rest just hope for the best, then run off the cliff.
       
      Only a few really consider what it will take realistically to accomplish. This means they have to go out onto the trail the years prior during “thru-hiker season” to see what’s there, what skills it will take to get around, how their body is going to react, how much food they will really need to crank out those miles everybody seems to be seeking, or even whether they really want to do it at all.
       
       
       
      Ned Tibbits, Director
      Mountain Education
      www.mountaineducation.org
       
      From: John
      Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2013 7:55 AM
      Subject: Re: [John Muir Trail] Number of JMT permits this year?
       
       

      the completion # may include those that completed over several seasons, so the attrition could be skewed.

       
      John
      --- In johnmuirtrail@yahoogroups.com, "John" wrote:
      >
      > I've emailed the PCTA for more detailed info as I am interested in the
      > data. The numbers were gleaned of the blog so I am unsure of the exact
      > relevance. I'm sure the 50% completion rate is approximate.
      > But from the PCTA website, last year ~800 thru hike permits were issued
      > and 353 people emailed them saying they completed the trail. Assuming
      > that most of these people were truthful, and also making the likely
      > assumption that there were some that finished and didn't report back to
      > the PCTA, the completion rate for last season was at least 44%
      > If this years spike is due to the book, then I would guess the attrition
      > rate to be higher as there may be a lot more "unprepared" people
      > starting.
      > Interestingly, this increase somewhat mirrors the marked increased in
      > permits written for the JMT in the last few years.
      > JDWalk the Sky: Following the John Muir Trailsee book here
      >
      > --- In johnmuirtrail@yahoogroups.com, Frank Dumville wrote:
      > >
      > > The PCTA issues Long Distance Hiking permits for trips of 500 miles or
      > more. There is no specific thruhiker permit.Â
      > > Does the 1300 number include all permits or only those planning on
      > going the entire distance? If the former then many of those may not
      > include the JMT.
      > > I suspect the dropout rate is higher than 50% but more people may make
      > is through the JMT this year because the snow and stream crossing
      > problems will be reduced.
      > > Â
      > > SnapÂ
      > >
      > > ________________________________
      > > From: John johndittli@
      > > Â Wow! I just read that 1300 thru hike permits were issued for the
      > PCT this year (up from 800 last year). With an annual 50% dropout rate,
      > that means 650 JMT hikers before any JMT specific permits are evenÂ
      > rendered!Â
      > >
      >
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