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30707Re: [John Muir Trail] Number of JMT permits this year?

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  • John
    May 23 7:55 AM
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      the completion # may include those that completed over several seasons, so the attrition could be skewed.

      John
      --- In johnmuirtrail@yahoogroups.com, "John" wrote:
      >
      > I've emailed the PCTA for more detailed info as I am interested in the
      > data. The numbers were gleaned of the blog so I am unsure of the exact
      > relevance. I'm sure the 50% completion rate is approximate.
      > But from the PCTA website, last year ~800 thru hike permits were issued
      > and 353 people emailed them saying they completed the trail. Assuming
      > that most of these people were truthful, and also making the likely
      > assumption that there were some that finished and didn't report back to
      > the PCTA, the completion rate for last season was at least 44%
      > If this years spike is due to the book, then I would guess the attrition
      > rate to be higher as there may be a lot more "unprepared" people
      > starting.
      > Interestingly, this increase somewhat mirrors the marked increased in
      > permits written for the JMT in the last few years.
      > JDWalk the Sky: Following the John Muir Trailsee book here
      >
      > --- In johnmuirtrail@yahoogroups.com, Frank Dumville wrote:
      > >
      > > The PCTA issues Long Distance Hiking permits for trips of 500 miles or
      > more. There is no specific thruhiker permit.Â
      > > Does the 1300 number include all permits or only those planning on
      > going the entire distance? If the former then many of those may not
      > include the JMT.
      > > I suspect the dropout rate is higher than 50% but more people may make
      > is through the JMT this year because the snow and stream crossing
      > problems will be reduced.
      > > Â
      > > SnapÂ
      > >
      > > ________________________________
      > > From: John johndittli@
      > > Â Wow! I just read that 1300 thru hike permits were issued for the
      > PCT this year (up from 800 last year). With an annual 50% dropout rate,
      > that means 650 JMT hikers before any JMT specific permits are evenÂ
      > rendered!Â
      > >
      >
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