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30706Re: [John Muir Trail] Number of JMT permits this year?

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  • John
    May 23, 2013
      I've emailed the PCTA for more detailed info as I am interested in the data. The numbers were gleaned of the blog so I am unsure of the exact relevance. I'm sure the 50% completion rate is approximate.

      But from the PCTA website, last year ~800 thru hike permits were issued and 353 people emailed them saying they completed the trail. Assuming that most of these people were truthful, and also making the likely assumption that there were some that finished and didn't report back to the PCTA, the completion rate for last season was at least 44%

      If this years spike is due to the book, then I would guess the attrition rate to be higher as there may be a lot more "unprepared" people starting.

      Interestingly, this increase somewhat mirrors the marked increased in permits written for the JMT in the last few years.

      JD
      Walk the Sky: Following the John Muir Trail
      see book here 
      --- In johnmuirtrail@yahoogroups.com, Frank Dumville wrote:
      >
      > The PCTA issues Long Distance Hiking permits for trips of 500 miles or more. There is no specific thruhiker permit. 
      > Does the 1300 number include all permits or only those planning on going the entire distance? If the former then many of those may not include the JMT.
      > I suspect the dropout rate is higher than 50% but more people may make is through the JMT this year because the snow and stream crossing problems will be reduced.
      >  
      > Snap 
      >
      > ________________________________
      > From: John johndittli@...
      >  Wow! I just read that 1300 thru hike permits were issued for the PCT this year (up from 800 last year). With an annual 50% dropout rate, that means 650 JMT hikers before any JMT specific permits are even rendered! 
      >
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