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30256Re: [John Muir Trail] Re: Concerns about a dry Sept hike

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  • Ned Tibbits
    May 8, 2013
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      Keep in mind a couple of things for this summer’s sierra hikes...
      - the southern end of the sierra is drier than the northern end (since what few winter storms we got went by to the north).
      - when you’re out on the trail right now, it feels and looks like the end of June instead of early May (figure it’s about 6 or 7 weeks ahead of seasonal norms).
      What’s this mean?
      - It’s “Summertime” in the southern sierra (Kennedy to Horseshoe Meadows). Creeks are running real low.
      - Snowline is about 11,000 feet, something usually not seen until the end of June.
      - There will be a short “thaw” when the nights stop freezing (about now) and the creeks will be high briefly since the pack is thin. PCT thrus will still have a few creek crossing challenges.
      - Bugs will be bad early but not last long. Flowers will bloom early and die early. Dust/Heat will be bad.
      - July 4th at the MTR will feel like the end of August.
      - Short-drainage creeks will be dry by July (if the topo shows a short creek, don’t count on there being water).
      - After mid-June, creek crossings will not be a problem anywhere (doesn’t mean that you won’t get wet).
      Plan accordingly.
      Ned Tibbits, Director
      Mountain Education
      From: Chris
      Sent: Tuesday, May 07, 2013 11:28 PM
      Subject: [John Muir Trail] Re: Concerns about a dry Sept hike

      I moved my start date up from Aug 27 to May 27 in part due to concerns about water in the southern end of hike (but mostly due to wanting to get on the trail ASAP:-D). I will do my best to take notes about water levels during my hike (along with checking cell service at passes and other locations) and pass info onto the group.


      --- In mailto:johnmuirtrail%40yahoogroups.com, "Erica" <xericamunsonx@...> wrote:

      > So, as others have been
      discussing - I'm starting to get nervous about hiking in Sept based on the snow and water level reports that have been surfacing. The SEKI facebook page posted a photo of the Kings River yesterday that was remarkably low...many commenters saying it's the lowest they've ever seen it in May....also reading that some waterfalls in Yosemite and Kings Canyon are eerily dry...
      > I
      read Ray's blog post the other day, which was very helpful in making notes of the potential dry stretches. Based on mileage given - it seems like these dry stretches are going to be tolerable...and I'm trying to keep these stretches in mind when planning my schedule. I'm making notes on my maps of the last reliable water sources so I'll know where to stock up.
      > I'm wondering if
      anyone feels legitimately that a Sept hike might be better of being rescheduled earlier - or if that might be an overreaction? it wouldn't be easy or convenient for me to reschedule our hike, but I'm finding myself wondering if it will likely be a significantly tougher/higher risk experience hiking in Sept vs. July this year?
      > This fire season is also looking quite worrisome
      here in So. California - and it sounds like the Sierra's are likely going to be in the same boat.
      > I'd love to hear some others thoughts on

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