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Good articles in Sunday paper

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  • James Ferrill
    On page 11D of the Sunday business section, they have an article called Power crisis stirs interest in off-grid reliability which is pretty good. It talks a
    Message 1 of 8 , Feb 18, 2001
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      On page 11D of the Sunday business section, they have an article called
      "Power crisis stirs interest in off-grid reliability" which is pretty good.
      It talks a lot about power issues in general. The title is a bit of a
      misnomer because the system they describe is a grid-intertie, which doesn't
      make any power when the grid is down. Lots of good energy-related articles
      in the Outlook section too.

      James
    • Robert Johnston
      Speaking of articles, there is an excellent series of articles in the Feb 10-16 issue of The Economist. Gives a reasonable forecast for oil use/availability
      Message 2 of 8 , Feb 18, 2001
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        Speaking of articles, there is an excellent series of articles in the Feb
        10-16
        issue of The Economist. Gives a reasonable forecast for oil
        use/availability into
        the mid-21st century, and outlooks for renewables, etc. They cite the
        International
        Energy Agency, which forecasts that by 2020 world consumption of oil and
        natural gas
        will be the same percentage of total energy use as in 1997, e.g., 49% and
        18%, respectively.
        Renewables are forecast to double, but from a tiny base, so that is from 1%
        in 1997 to
        2% in 2020. The articles in this special issue give a good economic
        analysis of why
        this will be so, and also the various factors that are reshaping the
        industry. They
        predict that what will change the world from oil and gas will NOT be that we
        are
        running out, but rather that a disruptive technology will come along and
        displace it.
        They note that DaimlerChrysler (one of those mammoth, evil corporations <g>)
        have
        invested $600 million in its NECAR ("new electric car") program and will
        spend another
        $900 million over the next decade. They said, "Daimler expects to have
        fuel-cell cars
        on the market by 2004." Honda, Toyota and GM also expect to have their
        fuel-cell cars
        on the market by then. The revolution will be slow, however, with 20% of
        all new
        passenger vehicles and perhaps 100% of urban buses fueled by hydrogen fuel
        cells by
        2020. An interesting point is that the cars can be used as portable
        electricity
        generating power plants for homes, cabins, tools, etc. The article notes
        that even
        this low target may not be reached due to the fact that continuing
        improvements in
        gasoline engine efficiency will prolong the life of that technology.



        > -----Original Message-----
        > From: James Ferrill [mailto:jferrill@...]
        > Sent: Sunday, February 18, 2001 8:28 PM
        > To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
        > Subject: [hreg] Good articles in Sunday paper
        >
        >
        > On page 11D of the Sunday business section, they have an
        > article called
        > "Power crisis stirs interest in off-grid reliability" which
        > is pretty good.
        > It talks a lot about power issues in general. The title is a bit of a
        > misnomer because the system they describe is a grid-intertie,
        > which doesn't
        > make any power when the grid is down. Lots of good
        > energy-related articles
        > in the Outlook section too.
        >
        > James
        >
        >
        > ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
        > ---------------------~-~>
        > eGroups is now Yahoo! Groups
        > Click here for more details
        > http://click.egroups.com/1/11231/0/_/58590/_/982550270/
        > --------------------------------------------------------------
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        >
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        >
      • Dan from Texas
        DaimlerChrysler should be praised for their interest in the Fuel Cell technology and adapting it to the auto industry. The same goes for the others that also
        Message 3 of 8 , Feb 19, 2001
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          DaimlerChrysler should be praised for their interest in the Fuel Cell
          technology and adapting it to the auto industry. The same goes for the
          others that also have interests in it too, however there is one thing that
          many over look here. And DaimlerChrysler is at the for front of it. You
          must remember DaimlerChrysler roots. This is a company that builds one of
          the most expensive autos sold world wide, with thier Mercerdes Benz and
          Chrysler with their Dodge Viper. These are cars that only a small portion
          of the general driving public can afford. Unless DaimlerChrysler or any of
          the other auto manufacturers have come up with some radical new process for
          building Fuel Cells, these cars will be out of the reach to all but a small
          minority, and unfortunally they are the ones that least care if they drive a
          fuel efficent enviromentaly safe car. These cars will sell in excess of
          $55,000. Also one should also look at weather a bank will be willing to
          provide financing for such a car, knowing that it is new technology without
          a track record. I feel that they will be very reluctant to provide
          financing for them, which again means that only those people that have the
          spare cash or other assest will be able to purchase them. There is a
          gentleman in Florida that is currently building Fuel Cell operated auots,
          and in a intervieew with him on world news tonight about a year ago, said
          that unless a better way is found to reduce the cost of manufacturing Fuel
          cells, the cost of this type of auto will remain extremely high. The autos
          that he builds are in excess of $75,000.

          So as I see it, Fuel Cell autos will only make it as novelties and will be
          reported that way by the media until the cost of fuel cells drop low enough
          for the average family to go out and buy a fuel cell powered car, that has a
          price tag of between $15,000 and $25,000. I think that you will see Fuel
          cells powering houses before they make major inroads in the auto industry.

          -----Original Message-----
          From: Robert Johnston [mailto:rjohnsto@...]
          Sent: Sunday, February 18, 2001 10:19 PM
          To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
          Subject: RE: [hreg] Good articles in Sunday paper


          Speaking of articles, there is an excellent series of articles in the Feb
          10-16
          issue of The Economist. Gives a reasonable forecast for oil
          use/availability into
          the mid-21st century, and outlooks for renewables, etc. They cite the
          International
          Energy Agency, which forecasts that by 2020 world consumption of oil and
          natural gas
          will be the same percentage of total energy use as in 1997, e.g., 49% and
          18%, respectively.
          Renewables are forecast to double, but from a tiny base, so that is from 1%
          in 1997 to
          2% in 2020. The articles in this special issue give a good economic
          analysis of why
          this will be so, and also the various factors that are reshaping the
          industry. They
          predict that what will change the world from oil and gas will NOT be that we
          are
          running out, but rather that a disruptive technology will come along and
          displace it.
          They note that DaimlerChrysler (one of those mammoth, evil corporations <g>)
          have
          invested $600 million in its NECAR ("new electric car") program and will
          spend another
          $900 million over the next decade. They said, "Daimler expects to have
          fuel-cell cars
          on the market by 2004." Honda, Toyota and GM also expect to have their
          fuel-cell cars
          on the market by then. The revolution will be slow, however, with 20% of
          all new
          passenger vehicles and perhaps 100% of urban buses fueled by hydrogen fuel
          cells by
          2020. An interesting point is that the cars can be used as portable
          electricity
          generating power plants for homes, cabins, tools, etc. The article notes
          that even
          this low target may not be reached due to the fact that continuing
          improvements in
          gasoline engine efficiency will prolong the life of that technology.



          > -----Original Message-----
          > From: James Ferrill [mailto:jferrill@...]
          > Sent: Sunday, February 18, 2001 8:28 PM
          > To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
          > Subject: [hreg] Good articles in Sunday paper
          >
          >
          > On page 11D of the Sunday business section, they have an
          > article called
          > "Power crisis stirs interest in off-grid reliability" which
          > is pretty good.
          > It talks a lot about power issues in general. The title is a bit of a
          > misnomer because the system they describe is a grid-intertie,
          > which doesn't
          > make any power when the grid is down. Lots of good
          > energy-related articles
          > in the Outlook section too.
          >
          > James
          >
          >
          > ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
          > ---------------------~-~>
          > eGroups is now Yahoo! Groups
          > Click here for more details
          > http://click.egroups.com/1/11231/0/_/58590/_/982550270/
          > --------------------------------------------------------------
          > -------_->
          >
          >
          >
          >
        • Robert Johnston
          The rich will always drive expensive cars. Let s not whine. I for one enjoy my Honda Civic just fine, and the only thing that bothers me about Jags and
          Message 4 of 8 , Feb 19, 2001
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            The rich will always drive expensive cars. Let's not whine. I
            for one enjoy my Honda Civic just fine, and the only thing that
            bothers me about Jags and Mercedes is my fear that if I hit one,
            I may exceed my insurance limits! :-) I don't miss their high
            costs, taxes, and maintenance.

            As for the environmental impact, it is the poor man's pickup and
            SUV that is much more of a problem than the rich man's Mercedes
            and Viper. Given the massive numbers of the poor man's cars vs.
            the few of the rich man's, one can quickly calculate where the
            problems lie. Reflecting an earlier post of someone else, education
            is key here. The car companies make what sells. (DaimlerChrysler
            also make Neons, by the way, not just Vipers).

            Anyway, I'm not trying to pick a fight with you! What I do
            want to note is that I think you are mistaken on the fuel
            cells. I shared that view until reading this article, because
            I thought they were still a long ways off. I had read in Chemical
            & Engineering News that shifting focus from water-Hydrogen cells
            to methanol or ethanol conversion (e.g., as sources of hydrogen)
            was yielding positive results. I don't know if that is what has
            accelerated timelines, but it is apparent that the auto companies
            believe that the technology is nearly ready. To be ready for a
            2004 model year, you'd have to be in place by around 2002 (e.g.,
            next year). Ballard Power was cited as the company leading much
            of the fuel cell development, and I know from stock reports a
            couple years ago that Ford and other major automakers were heavily
            involved with equity positions and partnerships with them.

            The article said that, "[DaimlerChrysler] is not alone. Honda,
            Toyota and GM also say their fuel-cell cars will be ready by then [2004],
            and others say they will follow. A number of car firms and oil
            companies have jointly opened up a hydrogen refuelling station for
            their demonstration cars near California's capital of Sacremento.
            Daimler's top people think that in 20 years' time fuel cells will
            power perhaps 20% of all new passenger vehicles, and possibly all
            urban buses. Ford's chairman, Bill Ford, recently proclaimed:
            'I believe fuel cells will finally end the 100-year reign of the
            internal combustion engine.'"

            My point is that I think with that many major players projecting
            product in 2004, it must be further along than you or I had thought.
            Will it cost $75,000? I doubt it. You wouldn't see Honda and
            Toyota in there at that price. I think it is reasonable to say
            that both these companies are learning a lot from their hybrid
            cars, and that just as we saw them wait to make the dive into
            hybrids until battery technology and systems design reached the
            point where it would be reasonably affordable (around $20,000,
            which is affordable to many buyers even if it is pricey for such
            a small car). I don't see why they'd jump into fuel cells just
            to make PR headlines; these companies want to earn a profit, and
            to do so they have to sell some units. With the rich buying Vipers,
            they need to appeal to the middle class, and I think they will plan
            to do so. (GM learned the hard way in California with their EV6
            or whatever it was called [their all-electric vehicle] that people
            will not pay an exhorbitant price just for environmental cleanliness.
            Even with GM subsidizing the price, the car was a dud, and it was
            nowhere near $75,000 as I recall. So I just don't see any of these
            companies being this serious unless they were planning realistic pricing).

            I'd encourage everyone interested in this to pick up a copy of the
            article at your local library, or for references, refer to
            http://economist.com/surveys/energy/sources.html. The article isn't
            just (or even primarily) about cars. It is a survey of the entire
            energy scene.



            > -----Original Message-----
            > From: Dan from Texas [mailto:Dans1@...]
            > Sent: Monday, February 19, 2001 10:51 PM
            > To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
            > Subject: RE: [hreg] Good articles in Sunday paper
            >
            >
            > DaimlerChrysler should be praised for their interest in the Fuel Cell
            > technology and adapting it to the auto industry. The same
            > goes for the
            > others that also have interests in it too, however there is
            > one thing that
            > many over look here. And DaimlerChrysler is at the for front
            > of it. You
            > must remember DaimlerChrysler roots. This is a company that
            > builds one of
            > the most expensive autos sold world wide, with thier
            > Mercerdes Benz and
            > Chrysler with their Dodge Viper. These are cars that only a
            > small portion
            > of the general driving public can afford. Unless
            > DaimlerChrysler or any of
            > the other auto manufacturers have come up with some radical
            > new process for
            > building Fuel Cells, these cars will be out of the reach to
            > all but a small
            > minority, and unfortunally they are the ones that least care
            > if they drive a
            > fuel efficent enviromentaly safe car. These cars will sell
            > in excess of
            > $55,000. Also one should also look at weather a bank will be
            > willing to
            > provide financing for such a car, knowing that it is new
            > technology without
            > a track record. I feel that they will be very reluctant to provide
            > financing for them, which again means that only those people
            > that have the
            > spare cash or other assest will be able to purchase them. There is a
            > gentleman in Florida that is currently building Fuel Cell
            > operated auots,
            > and in a intervieew with him on world news tonight about a
            > year ago, said
            > that unless a better way is found to reduce the cost of
            > manufacturing Fuel
            > cells, the cost of this type of auto will remain extremely
            > high. The autos
            > that he builds are in excess of $75,000.
            >
            > So as I see it, Fuel Cell autos will only make it as
            > novelties and will be
            > reported that way by the media until the cost of fuel cells
            > drop low enough
            > for the average family to go out and buy a fuel cell powered
            > car, that has a
            > price tag of between $15,000 and $25,000. I think that you
            > will see Fuel
            > cells powering houses before they make major inroads in the
            > auto industry.
            >
            > -----Original Message-----
            > From: Robert Johnston [mailto:rjohnsto@...]
            > Sent: Sunday, February 18, 2001 10:19 PM
            > To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
            > Subject: RE: [hreg] Good articles in Sunday paper
            >
            >
            > Speaking of articles, there is an excellent series of
            > articles in the Feb
            > 10-16
            > issue of The Economist. Gives a reasonable forecast for oil
            > use/availability into
            > the mid-21st century, and outlooks for renewables, etc. They cite the
            > International
            > Energy Agency, which forecasts that by 2020 world consumption
            > of oil and
            > natural gas
            > will be the same percentage of total energy use as in 1997,
            > e.g., 49% and
            > 18%, respectively.
            > Renewables are forecast to double, but from a tiny base, so
            > that is from 1%
            > in 1997 to
            > 2% in 2020. The articles in this special issue give a good economic
            > analysis of why
            > this will be so, and also the various factors that are reshaping the
            > industry. They
            > predict that what will change the world from oil and gas will
            > NOT be that we
            > are
            > running out, but rather that a disruptive technology will
            > come along and
            > displace it.
            > They note that DaimlerChrysler (one of those mammoth, evil
            > corporations <g>)
            > have
            > invested $600 million in its NECAR ("new electric car")
            > program and will
            > spend another
            > $900 million over the next decade. They said, "Daimler
            > expects to have
            > fuel-cell cars
            > on the market by 2004." Honda, Toyota and GM also expect to
            > have their
            > fuel-cell cars
            > on the market by then. The revolution will be slow, however,
            > with 20% of
            > all new
            > passenger vehicles and perhaps 100% of urban buses fueled by
            > hydrogen fuel
            > cells by
            > 2020. An interesting point is that the cars can be used as portable
            > electricity
            > generating power plants for homes, cabins, tools, etc. The
            > article notes
            > that even
            > this low target may not be reached due to the fact that continuing
            > improvements in
            > gasoline engine efficiency will prolong the life of that technology.
            >
            >
            >
            > > -----Original Message-----
            > > From: James Ferrill [mailto:jferrill@...]
            > > Sent: Sunday, February 18, 2001 8:28 PM
            > > To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
            > > Subject: [hreg] Good articles in Sunday paper
            > >
            > >
            > > On page 11D of the Sunday business section, they have an
            > > article called
            > > "Power crisis stirs interest in off-grid reliability" which
            > > is pretty good.
            > > It talks a lot about power issues in general. The title is
            > a bit of a
            > > misnomer because the system they describe is a grid-intertie,
            > > which doesn't
            > > make any power when the grid is down. Lots of good
            > > energy-related articles
            > > in the Outlook section too.
            > >
            > > James
            > >
            > >
            > > ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
            > > ---------------------~-~>
            > > eGroups is now Yahoo! Groups
            > > Click here for more details
            > > http://click.egroups.com/1/11231/0/_/58590/_/982550270/
            > > --------------------------------------------------------------
            > > -------_->
            > >
            > >
            > >
            > >
            >
            >
            >
            >
            >
            >
            > ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
            > ---------------------~-~>
            > eGroups is now Yahoo! Groups
            > Click here for more details
            > http://click.egroups.com/1/11231/0/_/58590/_/982644688/
            > --------------------------------------------------------------
            > -------_->
            >
            >
            >
            >
            >
          • Dan from Texas
            Robert: It would make since to me that they would have to make the price reasonable in order for them to sell enough of them to make the venture profitable,
            Message 5 of 8 , Feb 21, 2001
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              Robert: It would make since to me that they would have to make the price
              reasonable in order for them to sell enough of them to make the venture
              profitable, and of course that is what the are in business for. But as we
              can astest from some of thier ventures, that they sometime make foolish
              mistakes that don't pan out. The point I was trying to make was that if
              they want these fuel cell cars to be accepted by the public and to get the
              to sell well, is that they have to be priced reasonably. I just hope that
              the see it that way too, for I would love to drive a state of the art Fuel
              cell powered vehicle. Now if this does come about and Feul Cell Cars do
              start making a inroad in to the general public, then Fuel Cell powered homes
              won't be far behind then.
              Dan Stuettgen

              -----Original Message-----
              From: Robert Johnston [mailto:rjohnsto@...]
              Sent: Monday, February 19, 2001 11:55 PM
              To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
              Subject: RE: [hreg] Good articles in Sunday paper


              The rich will always drive expensive cars. Let's not whine. I
              for one enjoy my Honda Civic just fine, and the only thing that
              bothers me about Jags and Mercedes is my fear that if I hit one,
              I may exceed my insurance limits! :-) I don't miss their high
              costs, taxes, and maintenance.

              As for the environmental impact, it is the poor man's pickup and
              SUV that is much more of a problem than the rich man's Mercedes
              and Viper. Given the massive numbers of the poor man's cars vs.
              the few of the rich man's, one can quickly calculate where the
              problems lie. Reflecting an earlier post of someone else, education
              is key here. The car companies make what sells. (DaimlerChrysler
              also make Neons, by the way, not just Vipers).

              Anyway, I'm not trying to pick a fight with you! What I do
              want to note is that I think you are mistaken on the fuel
              cells. I shared that view until reading this article, because
              I thought they were still a long ways off. I had read in Chemical
              & Engineering News that shifting focus from water-Hydrogen cells
              to methanol or ethanol conversion (e.g., as sources of hydrogen)
              was yielding positive results. I don't know if that is what has
              accelerated timelines, but it is apparent that the auto companies
              believe that the technology is nearly ready. To be ready for a
              2004 model year, you'd have to be in place by around 2002 (e.g.,
              next year). Ballard Power was cited as the company leading much
              of the fuel cell development, and I know from stock reports a
              couple years ago that Ford and other major automakers were heavily
              involved with equity positions and partnerships with them.

              The article said that, "[DaimlerChrysler] is not alone. Honda,
              Toyota and GM also say their fuel-cell cars will be ready by then [2004],
              and others say they will follow. A number of car firms and oil
              companies have jointly opened up a hydrogen refuelling station for
              their demonstration cars near California's capital of Sacremento.
              Daimler's top people think that in 20 years' time fuel cells will
              power perhaps 20% of all new passenger vehicles, and possibly all
              urban buses. Ford's chairman, Bill Ford, recently proclaimed:
              'I believe fuel cells will finally end the 100-year reign of the
              internal combustion engine.'"

              My point is that I think with that many major players projecting
              product in 2004, it must be further along than you or I had thought.
              Will it cost $75,000? I doubt it. You wouldn't see Honda and
              Toyota in there at that price. I think it is reasonable to say
              that both these companies are learning a lot from their hybrid
              cars, and that just as we saw them wait to make the dive into
              hybrids until battery technology and systems design reached the
              point where it would be reasonably affordable (around $20,000,
              which is affordable to many buyers even if it is pricey for such
              a small car). I don't see why they'd jump into fuel cells just
              to make PR headlines; these companies want to earn a profit, and
              to do so they have to sell some units. With the rich buying Vipers,
              they need to appeal to the middle class, and I think they will plan
              to do so. (GM learned the hard way in California with their EV6
              or whatever it was called [their all-electric vehicle] that people
              will not pay an exhorbitant price just for environmental cleanliness.
              Even with GM subsidizing the price, the car was a dud, and it was
              nowhere near $75,000 as I recall. So I just don't see any of these
              companies being this serious unless they were planning realistic pricing).

              I'd encourage everyone interested in this to pick up a copy of the
              article at your local library, or for references, refer to
              http://economist.com/surveys/energy/sources.html. The article isn't
              just (or even primarily) about cars. It is a survey of the entire
              energy scene.



              > -----Original Message-----
              > From: Dan from Texas [mailto:Dans1@...]
              > Sent: Monday, February 19, 2001 10:51 PM
              > To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
              > Subject: RE: [hreg] Good articles in Sunday paper
              >
              >
              > DaimlerChrysler should be praised for their interest in the Fuel Cell
              > technology and adapting it to the auto industry. The same
              > goes for the
              > others that also have interests in it too, however there is
              > one thing that
              > many over look here. And DaimlerChrysler is at the for front
              > of it. You
              > must remember DaimlerChrysler roots. This is a company that
              > builds one of
              > the most expensive autos sold world wide, with thier
              > Mercerdes Benz and
              > Chrysler with their Dodge Viper. These are cars that only a
              > small portion
              > of the general driving public can afford. Unless
              > DaimlerChrysler or any of
              > the other auto manufacturers have come up with some radical
              > new process for
              > building Fuel Cells, these cars will be out of the reach to
              > all but a small
              > minority, and unfortunally they are the ones that least care
              > if they drive a
              > fuel efficent enviromentaly safe car. These cars will sell
              > in excess of
              > $55,000. Also one should also look at weather a bank will be
              > willing to
              > provide financing for such a car, knowing that it is new
              > technology without
              > a track record. I feel that they will be very reluctant to provide
              > financing for them, which again means that only those people
              > that have the
              > spare cash or other assest will be able to purchase them. There is a
              > gentleman in Florida that is currently building Fuel Cell
              > operated auots,
              > and in a intervieew with him on world news tonight about a
              > year ago, said
              > that unless a better way is found to reduce the cost of
              > manufacturing Fuel
              > cells, the cost of this type of auto will remain extremely
              > high. The autos
              > that he builds are in excess of $75,000.
              >
              > So as I see it, Fuel Cell autos will only make it as
              > novelties and will be
              > reported that way by the media until the cost of fuel cells
              > drop low enough
              > for the average family to go out and buy a fuel cell powered
              > car, that has a
              > price tag of between $15,000 and $25,000. I think that you
              > will see Fuel
              > cells powering houses before they make major inroads in the
              > auto industry.
              >
              > -----Original Message-----
              > From: Robert Johnston [mailto:rjohnsto@...]
              > Sent: Sunday, February 18, 2001 10:19 PM
              > To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
              > Subject: RE: [hreg] Good articles in Sunday paper
              >
              >
              > Speaking of articles, there is an excellent series of
              > articles in the Feb
              > 10-16
              > issue of The Economist. Gives a reasonable forecast for oil
              > use/availability into
              > the mid-21st century, and outlooks for renewables, etc. They cite the
              > International
              > Energy Agency, which forecasts that by 2020 world consumption
              > of oil and
              > natural gas
              > will be the same percentage of total energy use as in 1997,
              > e.g., 49% and
              > 18%, respectively.
              > Renewables are forecast to double, but from a tiny base, so
              > that is from 1%
              > in 1997 to
              > 2% in 2020. The articles in this special issue give a good economic
              > analysis of why
              > this will be so, and also the various factors that are reshaping the
              > industry. They
              > predict that what will change the world from oil and gas will
              > NOT be that we
              > are
              > running out, but rather that a disruptive technology will
              > come along and
              > displace it.
              > They note that DaimlerChrysler (one of those mammoth, evil
              > corporations <g>)
              > have
              > invested $600 million in its NECAR ("new electric car")
              > program and will
              > spend another
              > $900 million over the next decade. They said, "Daimler
              > expects to have
              > fuel-cell cars
              > on the market by 2004." Honda, Toyota and GM also expect to
              > have their
              > fuel-cell cars
              > on the market by then. The revolution will be slow, however,
              > with 20% of
              > all new
              > passenger vehicles and perhaps 100% of urban buses fueled by
              > hydrogen fuel
              > cells by
              > 2020. An interesting point is that the cars can be used as portable
              > electricity
              > generating power plants for homes, cabins, tools, etc. The
              > article notes
              > that even
              > this low target may not be reached due to the fact that continuing
              > improvements in
              > gasoline engine efficiency will prolong the life of that technology.
              >
              >
              >
              > > -----Original Message-----
              > > From: James Ferrill [mailto:jferrill@...]
              > > Sent: Sunday, February 18, 2001 8:28 PM
              > > To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
              > > Subject: [hreg] Good articles in Sunday paper
              > >
              > >
              > > On page 11D of the Sunday business section, they have an
              > > article called
              > > "Power crisis stirs interest in off-grid reliability" which
              > > is pretty good.
              > > It talks a lot about power issues in general. The title is
              > a bit of a
              > > misnomer because the system they describe is a grid-intertie,
              > > which doesn't
              > > make any power when the grid is down. Lots of good
              > > energy-related articles
              > > in the Outlook section too.
              > >
              > > James
              > >
              > >
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            • Marge Wood
              What about what I keep hearing, that houses can be powered by cars, which of course have generators? would the cars be fuel-cell powered? Marge
              Message 6 of 8 , Feb 21, 2001
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                What about what I keep hearing, that houses can be powered by cars, which
                of course have generators? would the cars be fuel-cell powered?
                Marge
              • Robert Johnston
                I agree. They ll have to be priced favorably if they are to sell well. But I doubt they plan/hope to get them to sell like hotcakes. They probably prefer
                Message 7 of 8 , Feb 22, 2001
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                  I agree. They'll have to be priced favorably if they are to
                  sell well. But I doubt they plan/hope to get them to sell
                  like hotcakes. They probably prefer and plan on a more gradual
                  introduction. That not only lets them get customer feedback
                  and get the kinks out without as much risk (recalls are
                  expensive), but it also allows time for the presently non-existent
                  infrastructure for fueling and servicing these vehicles to be
                  developed.

                  For comments on the inefficiency of fuel cells by Pliny Fisk, see
                  my comments on the RDA meeting in a separate post.

                  Robert

                  > -----Original Message-----
                  > From: Dan from Texas [mailto:Dans1@...]
                  > Sent: Wednesday, February 21, 2001 11:05 PM
                  > To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
                  > Subject: RE: [hreg] Good articles in Sunday paper
                  >
                  >
                  > Robert: It would make since to me that they would have to
                  > make the price
                  > reasonable in order for them to sell enough of them to make
                  > the venture
                  > profitable, and of course that is what the are in business
                  > for. But as we
                  > can astest from some of thier ventures, that they sometime
                  > make foolish
                  > mistakes that don't pan out. The point I was trying to make
                  > was that if
                  > they want these fuel cell cars to be accepted by the public
                  > and to get the
                  > to sell well, is that they have to be priced reasonably. I
                  > just hope that
                  > the see it that way too, for I would love to drive a state
                  > of the art Fuel
                  > cell powered vehicle. Now if this does come about and Feul
                  > Cell Cars do
                  > start making a inroad in to the general public, then Fuel
                  > Cell powered homes
                  > won't be far behind then.
                  > Dan Stuettgen
                  >
                  > -----Original Message-----
                  > From: Robert Johnston [mailto:rjohnsto@...]
                  > Sent: Monday, February 19, 2001 11:55 PM
                  > To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
                  > Subject: RE: [hreg] Good articles in Sunday paper
                  >
                  >
                  > The rich will always drive expensive cars. Let's not whine. I
                  > for one enjoy my Honda Civic just fine, and the only thing that
                  > bothers me about Jags and Mercedes is my fear that if I hit one,
                  > I may exceed my insurance limits! :-) I don't miss their high
                  > costs, taxes, and maintenance.
                  >
                  > As for the environmental impact, it is the poor man's pickup and
                  > SUV that is much more of a problem than the rich man's Mercedes
                  > and Viper. Given the massive numbers of the poor man's cars vs.
                  > the few of the rich man's, one can quickly calculate where the
                  > problems lie. Reflecting an earlier post of someone else, education
                  > is key here. The car companies make what sells. (DaimlerChrysler
                  > also make Neons, by the way, not just Vipers).
                  >
                  > Anyway, I'm not trying to pick a fight with you! What I do
                  > want to note is that I think you are mistaken on the fuel
                  > cells. I shared that view until reading this article, because
                  > I thought they were still a long ways off. I had read in Chemical
                  > & Engineering News that shifting focus from water-Hydrogen cells
                  > to methanol or ethanol conversion (e.g., as sources of hydrogen)
                  > was yielding positive results. I don't know if that is what has
                  > accelerated timelines, but it is apparent that the auto companies
                  > believe that the technology is nearly ready. To be ready for a
                  > 2004 model year, you'd have to be in place by around 2002 (e.g.,
                  > next year). Ballard Power was cited as the company leading much
                  > of the fuel cell development, and I know from stock reports a
                  > couple years ago that Ford and other major automakers were heavily
                  > involved with equity positions and partnerships with them.
                  >
                  > The article said that, "[DaimlerChrysler] is not alone. Honda,
                  > Toyota and GM also say their fuel-cell cars will be ready by
                  > then [2004],
                  > and others say they will follow. A number of car firms and oil
                  > companies have jointly opened up a hydrogen refuelling station for
                  > their demonstration cars near California's capital of Sacremento.
                  > Daimler's top people think that in 20 years' time fuel cells will
                  > power perhaps 20% of all new passenger vehicles, and possibly all
                  > urban buses. Ford's chairman, Bill Ford, recently proclaimed:
                  > 'I believe fuel cells will finally end the 100-year reign of the
                  > internal combustion engine.'"
                  >
                  > My point is that I think with that many major players projecting
                  > product in 2004, it must be further along than you or I had thought.
                  > Will it cost $75,000? I doubt it. You wouldn't see Honda and
                  > Toyota in there at that price. I think it is reasonable to say
                  > that both these companies are learning a lot from their hybrid
                  > cars, and that just as we saw them wait to make the dive into
                  > hybrids until battery technology and systems design reached the
                  > point where it would be reasonably affordable (around $20,000,
                  > which is affordable to many buyers even if it is pricey for such
                  > a small car). I don't see why they'd jump into fuel cells just
                  > to make PR headlines; these companies want to earn a profit, and
                  > to do so they have to sell some units. With the rich buying Vipers,
                  > they need to appeal to the middle class, and I think they will plan
                  > to do so. (GM learned the hard way in California with their EV6
                  > or whatever it was called [their all-electric vehicle] that people
                  > will not pay an exhorbitant price just for environmental cleanliness.
                  > Even with GM subsidizing the price, the car was a dud, and it was
                  > nowhere near $75,000 as I recall. So I just don't see any of these
                  > companies being this serious unless they were planning
                  > realistic pricing).
                  >
                  > I'd encourage everyone interested in this to pick up a copy of the
                  > article at your local library, or for references, refer to
                  > http://economist.com/surveys/energy/sources.html. The article isn't
                  > just (or even primarily) about cars. It is a survey of the entire
                  > energy scene.
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  > > -----Original Message-----
                  > > From: Dan from Texas [mailto:Dans1@...]
                  > > Sent: Monday, February 19, 2001 10:51 PM
                  > > To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
                  > > Subject: RE: [hreg] Good articles in Sunday paper
                  > >
                  > >
                  > > DaimlerChrysler should be praised for their interest in the
                  > Fuel Cell
                  > > technology and adapting it to the auto industry. The same
                  > > goes for the
                  > > others that also have interests in it too, however there is
                  > > one thing that
                  > > many over look here. And DaimlerChrysler is at the for front
                  > > of it. You
                  > > must remember DaimlerChrysler roots. This is a company that
                  > > builds one of
                  > > the most expensive autos sold world wide, with thier
                  > > Mercerdes Benz and
                  > > Chrysler with their Dodge Viper. These are cars that only a
                  > > small portion
                  > > of the general driving public can afford. Unless
                  > > DaimlerChrysler or any of
                  > > the other auto manufacturers have come up with some radical
                  > > new process for
                  > > building Fuel Cells, these cars will be out of the reach to
                  > > all but a small
                  > > minority, and unfortunally they are the ones that least care
                  > > if they drive a
                  > > fuel efficent enviromentaly safe car. These cars will sell
                  > > in excess of
                  > > $55,000. Also one should also look at weather a bank will be
                  > > willing to
                  > > provide financing for such a car, knowing that it is new
                  > > technology without
                  > > a track record. I feel that they will be very reluctant to provide
                  > > financing for them, which again means that only those people
                  > > that have the
                  > > spare cash or other assest will be able to purchase them.
                  > There is a
                  > > gentleman in Florida that is currently building Fuel Cell
                  > > operated auots,
                  > > and in a intervieew with him on world news tonight about a
                  > > year ago, said
                  > > that unless a better way is found to reduce the cost of
                  > > manufacturing Fuel
                  > > cells, the cost of this type of auto will remain extremely
                  > > high. The autos
                  > > that he builds are in excess of $75,000.
                  > >
                  > > So as I see it, Fuel Cell autos will only make it as
                  > > novelties and will be
                  > > reported that way by the media until the cost of fuel cells
                  > > drop low enough
                  > > for the average family to go out and buy a fuel cell powered
                  > > car, that has a
                  > > price tag of between $15,000 and $25,000. I think that you
                  > > will see Fuel
                  > > cells powering houses before they make major inroads in the
                  > > auto industry.
                  > >
                  > > -----Original Message-----
                  > > From: Robert Johnston [mailto:rjohnsto@...]
                  > > Sent: Sunday, February 18, 2001 10:19 PM
                  > > To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
                  > > Subject: RE: [hreg] Good articles in Sunday paper
                  > >
                  > >
                  > > Speaking of articles, there is an excellent series of
                  > > articles in the Feb
                  > > 10-16
                  > > issue of The Economist. Gives a reasonable forecast for oil
                  > > use/availability into
                  > > the mid-21st century, and outlooks for renewables, etc.
                  > They cite the
                  > > International
                  > > Energy Agency, which forecasts that by 2020 world consumption
                  > > of oil and
                  > > natural gas
                  > > will be the same percentage of total energy use as in 1997,
                  > > e.g., 49% and
                  > > 18%, respectively.
                  > > Renewables are forecast to double, but from a tiny base, so
                  > > that is from 1%
                  > > in 1997 to
                  > > 2% in 2020. The articles in this special issue give a good economic
                  > > analysis of why
                  > > this will be so, and also the various factors that are reshaping the
                  > > industry. They
                  > > predict that what will change the world from oil and gas will
                  > > NOT be that we
                  > > are
                  > > running out, but rather that a disruptive technology will
                  > > come along and
                  > > displace it.
                  > > They note that DaimlerChrysler (one of those mammoth, evil
                  > > corporations <g>)
                  > > have
                  > > invested $600 million in its NECAR ("new electric car")
                  > > program and will
                  > > spend another
                  > > $900 million over the next decade. They said, "Daimler
                  > > expects to have
                  > > fuel-cell cars
                  > > on the market by 2004." Honda, Toyota and GM also expect to
                  > > have their
                  > > fuel-cell cars
                  > > on the market by then. The revolution will be slow, however,
                  > > with 20% of
                  > > all new
                  > > passenger vehicles and perhaps 100% of urban buses fueled by
                  > > hydrogen fuel
                  > > cells by
                  > > 2020. An interesting point is that the cars can be used as portable
                  > > electricity
                  > > generating power plants for homes, cabins, tools, etc. The
                  > > article notes
                  > > that even
                  > > this low target may not be reached due to the fact that continuing
                  > > improvements in
                  > > gasoline engine efficiency will prolong the life of that technology.
                  > >
                  > >
                  > >
                  > > > -----Original Message-----
                  > > > From: James Ferrill [mailto:jferrill@...]
                  > > > Sent: Sunday, February 18, 2001 8:28 PM
                  > > > To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
                  > > > Subject: [hreg] Good articles in Sunday paper
                  > > >
                  > > >
                  > > > On page 11D of the Sunday business section, they have an
                  > > > article called
                  > > > "Power crisis stirs interest in off-grid reliability" which
                  > > > is pretty good.
                  > > > It talks a lot about power issues in general. The title is
                  > > a bit of a
                  > > > misnomer because the system they describe is a grid-intertie,
                  > > > which doesn't
                  > > > make any power when the grid is down. Lots of good
                  > > > energy-related articles
                  > > > in the Outlook section too.
                  > > >
                  > > > James
                  > > >
                  > > >
                  > > > ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
                  > > > ---------------------~-~>
                  > > > eGroups is now Yahoo! Groups
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                  > > >
                  > > >
                  > >
                  > >
                  > >
                  > >
                  > >
                  > >
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                  > >
                  >
                  >
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                • Robert Johnston
                  I m not sure what you are referring to (didn t see the paper), but in an earlier post I mentioned an excellent survey of energy that was just published in The
                  Message 8 of 8 , Feb 22, 2001
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                    I'm not sure what you are referring to (didn't see the paper), but
                    in an earlier post I mentioned an excellent survey of energy that
                    was just published in The Economist magazine. In there was an article
                    about fuel cell powered cars, and it mentioned in passing that they
                    could be used to power houses. The car essentially is carrying a
                    portable generator that can be wheeled around on its own power, if
                    you prefer to think of it that way.

                    Robert


                    > -----Original Message-----
                    > From: Marge Wood [mailto:othermother6@...]
                    > Sent: Wednesday, February 21, 2001 11:11 PM
                    > To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
                    > Subject: Re: [hreg] Good articles in Sunday paper
                    >
                    >
                    > What about what I keep hearing, that houses can be powered by
                    > cars, which
                    > of course have generators? would the cars be fuel-cell powered?
                    > Marge
                    >
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                    >
                    >
                    >
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