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Fwd: [hreg] Solar grant for HREG member

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  • L P Langevine
    Hello Mike: Greetings and many thanks for your warm sentiments. I plan to use the BP A+ for Energy grant to support a project titled SolarWorks@Ball. The
    Message 1 of 23 , May 22, 2008
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      Hello Mike:
       
      Greetings and many thanks for your warm sentiments.
       
      I plan to use the BP A+ for Energy grant to support a project titled SolarWorks@Ball. The primary goal is to stimulate greater interest in renewable energy and energy conservation among staff and students of Ball High School, Galveston ISD. This goal will be pursued via:
       
      (i) The sponsorship of SolarWorks - a school club for the promotion of energy education. SolarWorks activities will include a series of solar camps where participants will benefit from hands-on energy education activities such as solar cooking, solar electricity, solar and fuel-cell powered car racing, and energy conservation. Participants will also be involved in tours of renewable energy and conventional energy installations.
       
       
      (ii) Energy education activities in mathematics and science classrooms at Ball High School. For example, in mathematics students will use solar-powered cars to study mathematical models of motion while in science students will investigate energy conversion and storage devices such as solar cells, fuel cells, and conventional batteries.
       
      I would be most happy to keep you informed, as the project progresses.
       
      Regards,
       
      Laurent

      On Sat, May 17, 2008 at 10:06 PM, Michael Ewert <mkewert@...> wrote:

      Congratulations to HREG member Laurent Langevine for receiving a BP A+ for Energy grant for energy education!  Laurent is a teacher at Galveston's Ball High School (my alma matter).  Some other schools in our area received grants as well.

       

      Laurent, will you tell us what you plan to do with your grant?



    • Robert Johnston
      Article proposing that the next big investment bubble to inflate and then burst will be alternative energy. http://www.harpers.org/archive/2008/02/0081908
      Message 2 of 23 , May 22, 2008
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        Article proposing that the next big investment bubble to inflate and then burst will be alternative energy…

         

        http://www.harpers.org/archive/2008/02/0081908

         

        Robert

      • William
        Very intersting article Robert, Any ideas how to circumvent the greed monster? It seems we do not produce anything in industry anymore now we manufacture
        Message 3 of 23 , May 23, 2008
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          Very intersting article Robert,
          Any ideas how to circumvent the "greed" monster? It seems we do not
          produce anything in industry anymore now we manufacture "bubbles" and
          capitalize on them. There has got to be an anchor so to speak to stop
          the spiraling bursts of this idiodcy. Alternative energy is a must, we
          need it as a brace to tie into the existing infrastructure only to
          offset what we can no longer afford to do both economically and
          environmentally. To prostitute renewables for whatever the market can
          bear seems to be the only way we can market it in the US. How is Europe
          able to procede and flourish with their programs?
          Interesting debate I'm sure will follow this. Bill




          --- In hreg@yahoogroups.com, "Robert Johnston" <junk1@...> wrote:
          >
          > Article proposing that the next big investment bubble to inflate and
          then
          > burst will be alternative energy.
          >
          >
          >
          > http://www.harpers.org/archive/2008/02/0081908
          >
          >
          >
          > Robert
          >
        • Jim & Janet
          The article proposes that the past will define the future. That may or may not be the case with RE. There is a huge oversupply of PV in Germany and other major
          Message 4 of 23 , May 23, 2008
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            The article proposes that the past will define the future. That may or may not be the case with RE.
            There is a huge oversupply of PV in Germany and other major production/installation centers. China, Spain and others are adding to the inventory. Most is for their domestic use but when you invest a year and a $ half billion for a silicon production facility, you just cannot suddenly and dramatically cut back production because of a glut. The hope is that the oversupply will grow and force the worldwide price of PV to drop at a quicker pace than currently exists. This could prevent the bubble effect by letting market forces lower prices. http://www.solarbuzz.com/index.asp
            Unfortunately those market forces don't exist in the US [outside Ca, NJ, NY Co etc] and won't until there are national incentives, RPS, production tax credits, rebates for consumers and utilitys.
            Only manipulation of silicon prices by futures traders [think food & crude] could drive up PV prices, and then only temporarily. Since raw silicon [quartz] is abundant worlsdwide, it is nearly impossible to form a 'silicon cartel' that could further manipulate prices and aggravate a bubble.
            The good news is that, even before production begins, PV mfgrs must line up long-term raw silicon purchase agreements at prices that won't go up due to factors beyond  their control. Those prices might last a decade. Only those mfgrs will be able to maintain fairly steady prices for their products.
            Personally I think a RE bubble, if it's coming at all, is a long way off and by no means a certainty.
            Jim Duncan
             
             
             
             
            ----- Original Message -----
            Sent: Thursday, May 22, 2008 11:33 PM
            Subject: [hreg] alternative energy--next bubble?

            Article proposing that the next big investment bubble to inflate and then burst will be alternative energy…

            http://www.harpers. org/archive/ 2008/02/0081908

            Robert

          • Philip Timmons
            dunno that this is even a bad thing in this regard.  By the Harper s article, there will be a run-up in RE building until saturation hits in or about
            Message 5 of 23 , May 23, 2008
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              dunno that this is even a bad thing in this regard.  By the Harper's article, there will be a run-up in RE building until saturation hits in or about 2014.  So that is a five year run ahead of everyone from T Boone to Joe Six Pack building out Windmills, Solar Thermal plants, and all the rest. 

              And then after five years of gang-buster activity, saturation hits.  Ok.  Happens in a lot of industries.  Highways, Bridges, Military (wars -- other than endless ones like, now).  In the construction realm most of the folks in it now it is over when the project is built -- and usually by the end are looking for it to be done.

              So saddle up and get ready to ride.  Is this not what the whole RE community has been sitting and moaning about for the last 20 years?  The time for Dinosaur Dust and Oil is past and we have a country and world to re-energize.  Come five years, dunno about you, but I am going to be tired and ready to take a break, anyway. :)

              In the meanwhile -- it is time RE Bubble Up (and Rainbow Stew) :)

              Seize the day!

              --- On Fri, 5/23/08, William <stangfam@...> wrote:
              From: William <stangfam@...>
              Subject: [hreg] Re: alternative energy--next bubble?
              To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
              Date: Friday, May 23, 2008, 7:50 AM

              Very intersting article Robert,
              Any ideas how to circumvent the "greed" monster? It seems we do not
              produce anything in industry anymore now we manufacture "bubbles" and
              capitalize on them. There has got to be an anchor so to speak to stop
              the spiraling bursts of this idiodcy. Alternative energy is a must, we
              need it as a brace to tie into the existing infrastructure only to
              offset what we can no longer afford to do both economically and
              environmentally. To prostitute renewables for whatever the market can
              bear seems to be the only way we can market it in the US. How is Europe
              able to procede and flourish with their programs?
              Interesting debate I'm sure will follow this. Bill

              --- In hreg@yahoogroups. com, "Robert Johnston" <junk1@...> wrote:
              >
              > Article proposing that the next big investment bubble to inflate and
              then
              > burst will be alternative energy.
              >
              >
              >
              > http://www.harpers. org/archive/ 2008/02/0081908
              >
              >
              >
              > Robert
              >


            • Jim Hudson
              Laurent, Congratulations on all you ve achieved !! My name is Jim Hudson, I would like to offer my services to help. We manufacture a solar powered attic vent
              Message 6 of 23 , May 23, 2008
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                Laurent,
                 
                Congratulations on all you've achieved !!  My name is Jim Hudson, I would like to offer my services to help. We manufacture a solar powered attic vent in Huffman Texas. I would be happy to schedule a time to bring a unit to your class for demonstration and explanation of what and how they work. What you or doing on education is imperative for the future of all.
                 
                We should APPLAUD ALL WHO TEACH THE YOUNG as it is their world " Green Solutions "  will affect the most.  
                 
                Jim Hudson
                281-904-5281 direct


                L P Langevine <lpl001@...> wrote:

                Hello Mike:
                 
                Greetings and many thanks for your warm sentiments.
                 
                I plan to use the BP A+ for Energy grant to support a project titled SolarWorks@Ball. The primary goal is to stimulate greater interest in renewable energy and energy conservation among staff and students of Ball High School, Galveston ISD. This goal will be pursued via:
                 
                (i) The sponsorship of SolarWorks - a school club for the promotion of energy education. SolarWorks activities will include a series of solar camps where participants will benefit from hands-on energy education activities such as solar cooking, solar electricity, solar and fuel-cell powered car racing, and energy conservation. Participants will also be involved in tours of renewable energy and conventional energy installations.
                 
                 
                (ii) Energy education activities in mathematics and science classrooms at Ball High School. For example, in mathematics students will use solar-powered cars to study mathematical models of motion while in science students will investigate energy conversion and storage devices such as solar cells, fuel cells, and conventional batteries.
                 
                I would be most happy to keep you informed, as the project progresses.
                 
                Regards,
                 
                Laurent

                On Sat, May 17, 2008 at 10:06 PM, Michael Ewert <mkewert@comcast. net> wrote:
                Congratulations to HREG member Laurent Langevine for receiving a BP A+ for Energy grant for energy education!  Laurent is a teacher at Galveston's Ball High School (my alma matter).  Some other schools in our area received grants as well.
                 
                Laurent, will you tell us what you plan to do with your grant?



              • L P Langevine
                Thank you. I will keep you and the group informed, as I fine-tune the program for implementing the grant. On Fri, May 23, 2008 at 1:37 PM, Jim Hudson
                Message 7 of 23 , May 23, 2008
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                  Thank you. I will keep you and the group informed, as I fine-tune the program for implementing the grant.

                  On Fri, May 23, 2008 at 1:37 PM, Jim Hudson <jim.hudson@...> wrote:

                  Laurent,
                   
                  Congratulations on all you've achieved !!  My name is Jim Hudson, I would like to offer my services to help. We manufacture a solar powered attic vent in Huffman Texas. I would be happy to schedule a time to bring a unit to your class for demonstration and explanation of what and how they work. What you or doing on education is imperative for the future of all.
                   
                  We should APPLAUD ALL WHO TEACH THE YOUNG as it is their world " Green Solutions "  will affect the most.  
                   
                  Jim Hudson
                  281-904-5281 direct


                  L P Langevine <lpl001@...> wrote:

                  Hello Mike:
                   
                  Greetings and many thanks for your warm sentiments.
                   
                  I plan to use the BP A+ for Energy grant to support a project titled SolarWorks@Ball. The primary goal is to stimulate greater interest in renewable energy and energy conservation among staff and students of Ball High School, Galveston ISD. This goal will be pursued via:
                   
                  (i) The sponsorship of SolarWorks - a school club for the promotion of energy education. SolarWorks activities will include a series of solar camps where participants will benefit from hands-on energy education activities such as solar cooking, solar electricity, solar and fuel-cell powered car racing, and energy conservation. Participants will also be involved in tours of renewable energy and conventional energy installations.
                   
                   
                  (ii) Energy education activities in mathematics and science classrooms at Ball High School. For example, in mathematics students will use solar-powered cars to study mathematical models of motion while in science students will investigate energy conversion and storage devices such as solar cells, fuel cells, and conventional batteries.
                   
                  I would be most happy to keep you informed, as the project progresses.
                   
                  Regards,
                   
                  Laurent

                  On Sat, May 17, 2008 at 10:06 PM, Michael Ewert <mkewert@...> wrote:
                  Congratulations to HREG member Laurent Langevine for receiving a BP A+ for Energy grant for energy education!  Laurent is a teacher at Galveston's Ball High School (my alma matter).  Some other schools in our area received grants as well.
                   
                  Laurent, will you tell us what you plan to do with your grant?




                • Michael Ewert
                  Laurent and all HREG members, I want to make sure you know about the www.infinitepower.org website by the State Energy
                  Message 8 of 23 , May 23, 2008
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                    Laurent and all HREG members,

                     

                    I want to make sure you know about the www.infinitepower.org website by the State Energy Conservation Office.  It has many educational materials, including teacher guides with experiments.

                     

                    Also, our intern last summer posted links to these science projects on the HREG website.

                    http://www.txses.org/hreg/projects.php

                     

                    Your project sounds great.  Thanks!

                     

                    Mike

                     


                    From: hreg@yahoogroups.com [mailto:hreg@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of L P Langevine
                    Sent: Thursday, May 22, 2008 6:50 PM
                    To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
                    Subject: Fwd: [hreg] Solar grant for HREG member

                     

                     

                    Hello Mike:

                     

                    Greetings and many thanks for your warm sentiments.

                     

                    I plan to use the BP A+ for Energy grant to support a project titled SolarWorks@Ball. The primary goal is to stimulate greater interest in renewable energy and energy conservation among staff and students of Ball High School , Galveston ISD. This goal will be pursued via:

                     

                    (i) The sponsorship of SolarWorks - a school club for the promotion of energy education. SolarWorks activities will include a series of solar camps where participants will benefit from hands-on energy education activities such as solar cooking, solar electricity, solar and fuel-cell powered car racing, and energy conservation. Participants will also be involved in tours of renewable energy and conventional energy installations.

                     

                     

                    (ii) Energy education activities in mathematics and science classrooms at Ball High School . For example, in mathematics students will use solar-powered cars to study mathematical models of motion while in science students will investigate energy conversion and storage devices such as solar cells, fuel cells, and conventional batteries.

                     

                    I would be most happy to keep you informed, as the project progresses.

                     

                    Regards,

                     

                    Laurent

                    On Sat, May 17, 2008 at 10:06 PM, Michael Ewert <mkewert@comcast. net> wrote:

                    Congratulations to HREG member Laurent Langevine for receiving a BP A+ for Energy grant for energy education!  Laurent is a teacher at Galveston 's Ball High School (my alma matter).  Some other schools in our area received grants as well.

                     

                    Laurent, will you tell us what you plan to do with your grant?

                     

                     

                  • Chris Boyer
                    In the comparison of investments in renewables to investment in the dot.com s there are some major differences. The existance of dot.coms were not really
                    Message 9 of 23 , May 26, 2008
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                      In the comparison of investments in renewables to investment in the dot.com's there are some major differences.  The existance of dot.coms were not really needed in our society, just a convenient change.  Harvesting renewable energy is essential to the survival of the human species, and if we don't grow the industry, we will be thrown back to the pre-industrial age as our supply of fossil fuel declines.  I don't think the author of the "bubble" article included that in his hypothesis.
                      -Chris
                       
                       
                       
                    • Robert Johnston
                      Interesting point. I doubt the author included that in his hypothesis. On the other hand, though, oil, gas, metals, etc. are also needed by society, and yet
                      Message 10 of 23 , May 26, 2008
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                        Interesting point.  I doubt the author included that in his hypothesis.  On the other hand, though, oil, gas, metals, etc. are also needed by society, and yet can and have undergone bubbles (and many are believing they are again).  I’m no prophet; time will tell…

                         

                        Robert

                         

                        From: hreg@yahoogroups.com [mailto:hreg@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Chris Boyer
                        Sent: Monday, May 26, 2008 9:34 PM
                        To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
                        Subject: [hreg] Re: alternative energy--next bubble?

                         

                        In the comparison of investments in renewables to investment in the dot.com's there are some major differences.  The existance of dot.coms were not really needed in our society, just a convenient change.  Harvesting renewable energy is essential to the survival of the human species, and if we don't grow the industry, we will be thrown back to the pre-industrial age as our supply of fossil fuel declines.  I don't think the author of the "bubble" article included that in his hypothesis.

                        -Chris

                         

                         

                         

                      • phil6142@aol.com
                        This is an interesting idea about a bubble coming and popping for Renewable energy.  The formation and popping of bubbles seem to me to have something in
                        Message 11 of 23 , May 27, 2008
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                          This is an interesting idea about a bubble coming and popping for Renewable energy.  The formation and popping of bubbles seem to me to have something in common.  That is that the bubble is formed by people, companies, goverment, whoever trying to gain profits without adding any real value.  This is where I think renewable energy is different from these other industries.  I believe that renewable energy installations actually create more value than we are currently assigning to them and that will help keep the industry from popping.  Here is the introduction to an article that I wrote recently following a presentation and discussion that I gave for a Professional Development seminar with Engineers Without Borders.  Please click on the link below if you are interested to read the whole article.

                          Phillip Hamilton
                          PhD Chemical Engineer
                          Progen Energy, LLC
                          www.alternateenergycentral.com



                          www.alternateenergycentral.com

                          What is the Value of Renewable Energy? Edit
                          Written by Phillip Hamilton  
                          Tuesday, 06 May 2008
                           

                          The traditional cost-plus pricing structure used to evaluate energy resources does not adequately capture the real value of renewable energy.  Many of the negative implications of conventional energy sources are externalized and there by not seen directly by the consumer as a cost.  In the same way many of the benefits of renewable energy are externalized and often not understood or considered by consumers.  A shift in the way society thinks about energy is required to fully understand these values.  Rather than viewing energy as a commodity we need to understand that energy is a product with far reaching effects on society.  Long time critics of renewable energy often focus completely on the costs without fully exploring its total value, while renewable energy advocates preach about the benefits of renewable energy without fully acknowledging its costs.  The goal of this website is to have a real dialogue between both camps in order for everyone participating to increase their understanding.   
                          Some of the values that are supplied by renewable energy which are not normally considered are:
                          • Risk Management
                          • Benefits of Emissions Reduction
                          • Policy Incentives
                          • Reduced Resource Use
                          • Social Responsibility
                          • Societal Economic Benefits
                          • National Security
                          To Read the whole article click:      www.alternateenergycentral.com



                          -----Original Message-----
                          From: Robert Johnston <junk1@...>
                          To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
                          Sent: Mon, 26 May 2008 10:14 pm
                          Subject: RE: [hreg] Re: alternative energy--next bubble?

                          Interesting point.  I doubt the author included that in his hypothesis.  On the other hand, though, oil, gas, metals, etc. are also needed by society, and yet can and have undergone bubbles (and many are believing they are again).  I’m no prophet; time will tell…
                           
                          Robert
                          From: hreg@yahoogroups. com [mailto:hreg@ yahoogroups. com] On Behalf Of Chris Boyer
                          Sent: Monday, May 26, 2008 9:34 PM
                          To: hreg@yahoogroups. com
                          Subject: [hreg] Re: alternative energy--next bubble?
                           
                          In the comparison of investments in renewables to investment in the dot.com's there are some major differences.  The existance of dot.coms were not really needed in our society, just a convenient change.  Harvesting renewable energy is essential to the survival of the human species, and if we don't grow the industry, we will be thrown back to the pre-industrial age as our supply of fossil fuel declines.  I don't think the author of the "bubble" article included that in his hypothesis.
                          -Chris
                           
                           
                           
                        • Gary Beck
                          Investors make money by trying to guess change ahead of their piers. So a bubble bursting is just another change to make or lose money on and has little to do
                          Message 12 of 23 , May 27, 2008
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                            Investors make money by trying to guess change ahead of their piers. So a bubble bursting is just another change to make or lose money on and has little to do with the realities of alternative energy.  

                             

                            Or its definition - solar, wind, heat recovery, nuclear, clean coal?  All can be called alternative.    That's a whole bunch of bubbles to burst all at once. More like a light bulb going 'on' in our communal heads, or maybe one at a time, and in some head's earlier and some later.

                              

                             

                            From: hreg@yahoogroups.com [mailto:hreg@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Chris Boyer
                            Sent: Monday, May 26, 2008 9:34 PM
                            To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
                            Subject: [hreg] Re: alternative energy--next bubble?

                             

                            In the comparison of investments in renewables to investment in the dot.com's there are some major differences.  The existance of dot.coms were not really needed in our society, just a convenient change.  Harvesting renewable energy is essential to the survival of the human species, and if we don't grow the industry, we will be thrown back to the pre-industrial age as our supply of fossil fuel declines.  I don't think the author of the "bubble" article included that in his hypothesis.

                            -Chris

                             

                             

                             


                            This message is for the designated recipient only and may contain privileged, proprietary, or otherwise private information. If you have received it in error, please notify the sender immediately and delete the original. Any other use of the email by you is prohibited."
                          • Gary Beck
                            For those who think and work and wonder around alternative energy, I suggest you read Collapse . I am about a third through it - a bit dry (just like
                            Message 13 of 23 , May 27, 2008
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                              For those who think and work and wonder around alternative energy, I suggest you read 'Collapse'.  I am about a third through it - a bit dry (just like engineering)

                               

                              This is an archeological investigation of the collapse of more than a dozen past societies, some of which were 600 and 1000 years old at the time of their down turns. Not to spoil the story but the bottom line leans towards uncontrolled growth leading ecological damage leading to each collapse, or atleast each downward spiral until the society is no longer recognizable as its former self.  Older societies used trees as fuel and after trees were scarce this changed their enviroments for the worse causing or becoming more sensitive to water scarcity which caused severe food shortages.

                               

                              Today we have uncontrolled growth, we have created a thirst for biggness in homes and cars and in energy consumption. For fuel, we have replaced tree with oil/gas/coal whose cost is rising (at $4/gallon we are still about 40% of what most of Europe spends). We use oil for fertilizer, production, and transport of food. Related or not food costs are recently going up dramatically.  Hydroponics and seed sales for 'localized food sourcing' are hitting all time highs.  An modern energy consideration is that alternative energy covers 'localized energy sourcing'  provided by solar PVs, whose production capacities are also increasing.  

                               

                              Gary

                               


                              This message is for the designated recipient only and may contain privileged, proprietary, or otherwise private information. If you have received it in error, please notify the sender immediately and delete the original. Any other use of the email by you is prohibited."
                            • Steven Shepard
                              Group, I don t know about any bubble popping for RE but I can tell you as a vendor that the industry is indeed undergoing a paradigm shift that will change the
                              Message 14 of 23 , May 27, 2008
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                                Group,

                                I don't know about any bubble popping for RE but I can
                                tell you as a vendor that the industry is indeed
                                undergoing a paradigm shift that will change the way
                                that RE products are marketed and sold in the future.
                                The industry never has done a good job of marketing.
                                Historically it has rode the backs of regional dealers
                                who were stupid enough to carry the manufacturers and
                                distributors who should be responsible for marketing
                                their own products. What is occurring now for the
                                most part is large corporations and utilities are
                                entering the RE market en masse and buying directly
                                from the manufacturers. These large companies do not
                                need local dealers and in some cases they are
                                competing directly against regional dealers. The
                                dealers who cannot recognize this shift in the
                                industry and adapt quickly will soon become the
                                dinosaurs of the RE business. Not sure if that is a
                                good or bad thing but I do know that groups like TREIA
                                have helped to expedite this shift here in the state
                                of Texas.

                                Steve

                                --- phil6142@... wrote:

                                > This is an interesting idea about a bubble coming
                                > and popping for Renewable energy.  The formation
                                > and popping of bubbles seem to me to have something
                                > in common.  That is that the bubble is formed by
                                > people, companies, goverment, whoever trying to gain
                                > profits without adding any real value.  This is
                                > where I think renewable energy is different from
                                > these other industries.  I believe that renewable
                                > energy installations actually create more value than
                                > we are currently assigning to them and that will
                                > help keep the industry from popping.  Here is the
                                > introduction to an article that I wrote recently
                                > following a presentation and discussion that I gave
                                > for a Professional Development seminar with
                                > Engineers Without Borders.  Please click on the
                                > link below if you are interested to read the whole
                                > article.
                                >
                                > Phillip Hamilton
                                > PhD Chemical Engineer
                                > Progen Energy, LLC
                                > www.alternateenergycentral.com
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                > www.alternateenergycentral.com
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                > What is the Value of Renewable Energy?
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                > Written by Phillip Hamilton  
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                > Tuesday, 06 May 2008
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >  
                                >
                                > The traditional cost-plus pricing structure used to
                                > evaluate energy resources does not adequately
                                > capture the real value of renewable energy.  Many
                                > of the negative implications of conventional energy
                                > sources are externalized and there by not seen
                                > directly by the consumer as a cost.  In the same
                                > way many of the benefits of renewable energy are
                                > externalized and often not understood or considered
                                > by consumers.  A shift in the way society thinks
                                > about energy is required to fully understand these
                                > values.  Rather than viewing energy as a commodity
                                > we need to understand that energy is a product with
                                > far reaching effects on society.  Long time critics
                                > of renewable energy often focus completely on the
                                > costs without fully exploring its total value, while
                                > renewable energy advocates preach about the benefits
                                > of renewable energy without fully acknowledging its
                                > costs.  The goal of this website is to have a real
                                > dialogue between both camps in order for everyone
                                > participating to increase their understanding.   
                                > Some of the values that are supplied by renewable
                                > energy which are not normally considered are:
                                >
                                >
                                > Risk Management
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                > Benefits of Emissions Reduction
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                > Policy Incentives
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                > Reduced Resource Use
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                > Social Responsibility
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                > Societal Economic Benefits
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                > National Security
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                > To Read the whole article click:     
                                > www.alternateenergycentral.com
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                > -----Original Message-----
                                > From: Robert Johnston <junk1@...>
                                > To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
                                > Sent: Mon, 26 May 2008 10:14 pm
                                > Subject: RE: [hreg] Re: alternative energy--next
                                > bubble?
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                > Interesting point.  I doubt the author included
                                > that in his hypothesis.  On the other hand, though,
                                > oil, gas, metals, etc. are also needed by society,
                                > and yet can and have undergone bubbles (and many are
                                > believing they are again).  I’m no prophet; time
                                > will tell…
                                >
                                >  
                                >
                                > Robert
                                >
                                >  
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                > From: hreg@yahoogroups.com
                                > [mailto:hreg@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Chris
                                > Boyer
                                > Sent: Monday, May 26, 2008 9:34 PM
                                > To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
                                > Subject: [hreg] Re: alternative energy--next bubble?
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >  
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                > In the comparison of investments in renewables
                                > to investment in the dot.com's there are some major
                                > differences.  The existance of dot.coms were not
                                > really needed in our society, just a convenient
                                > change.  Harvesting renewable energy is essential
                                > to the survival of the human species, and if we
                                > don't grow the industry, we will be thrown back to
                                > the pre-industrial age as our supply of fossil fuel
                                > declines.  I don't think the author of the "bubble"
                                > article included that in his hypothesis.
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                > -Chris
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >  
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >  
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >  
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                >
                                === message truncated ===


                                Getting better all the time!

                                Steven Shepard
                              • Robert Johnston
                                From what I read, bubbles have more to do with excess liquidity. When there is too much money chasing too few investments, the balloon bulges out where the
                                Message 15 of 23 , May 28, 2008
                                • 0 Attachment

                                  From what I read, bubbles have more to do with excess liquidity.  When there is too much money chasing too few investments, the balloon bulges out where the money is thrown, until it pops, then the money flows somewhere else for another bubble, until it pops, etc.  Or until the money supply (liquidity) dries up, whichever happens first.  Alan Greenspan lowered interest rates dramatically and flooded the markets with money.  Asian countries (China, etc.) and oil producers had lots of our money that they had to put somewhere, so that also flooded into the markets.  That helped create the real estate bubble that is now collapsing.  But so long as interest rates remain low and liquidity remains high, investors will continue to search for “the next big thing” to put their money in, and bid the price of those stocks up well beyond what the companies are worth.  It has little to do with intrinsic worth or the contributions of the company to society and more to what the investor psychology is and where they are running to put their money (or in most cases, not “their” money, but the money they manage—in pension funds, mutual funds, etc.).  It seems reasonable to me that alternative energy (regardless of type) companies could be overbid. 

                                   

                                  Nice article, BTW, but it is addressing societal value/costs, not how a company is valued by investors.  Just like with biotech a couple decades ago, or .com’s a decade ago, there is little question that the industry will survive—and even thrive if your arguments are correct (I’m not sure nuclear, coal, etc. won’t delay that day for quite a while yet).  However, that doesn’t mean a lot (probably majority) of alt-energy companies won’t go bankrupt and investors lose their shirts.

                                   

                                  As an aside, one of the more interesting books I’ve read on investing was Jeremy Siegel’s “The Future for Investors”.  He shows that over the long haul, the best performing stocks were not technology, but companies like Phillip Morris and the oil companies.  Alt-energy seems to me to be a technology play.  It will be governed by Moore’s Law or some variation thereof.  Technology stocks have a poor record over the long haul, as Siegel shows.

                                   

                                  Robert

                                   

                                  From: hreg@yahoogroups.com [mailto:hreg@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of phil6142@...
                                  Sent: Tuesday, May 27, 2008 11:04 AM
                                  To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
                                  Subject: Re: [hreg] Re: alternative energy--next bubble?

                                   

                                  This is an interesting idea about a bubble coming and popping for Renewable energy.  The formation and popping of bubbles seem to me to have something in common.  That is that the bubble is formed by people, companies, goverment, whoever trying to gain profits without adding any real value.  This is where I think renewable energy is different from these other industries.  I believe that renewable energy installations actually create more value than we are currently assigning to them and that will help keep the industry from popping.  Here is the introduction to an article that I wrote recently following a presentation and discussion that I gave for a Professional Development seminar with Engineers Without Borders.  Please click on the link below if you are interested to read the whole article.

                                  Phillip Hamilton
                                  PhD Chemical Engineer
                                  Progen Energy, LLC
                                  www.alternateenergycentral.com



                                  www.alternateenergycentral.com

                                  What is the Value of Renewable Energy? Edit

                                   

                                  Written by Phillip Hamilton  

                                  Tuesday, 06 May 2008

                                   

                                  The traditional cost-plus pricing structure used to evaluate energy resources does not adequately capture the real value of renewable energy.  Many of the negative implications of conventional energy sources are externalized and there by not seen directly by the consumer as a cost.  In the same way many of the benefits of renewable energy are externalized and often not understood or considered by consumers.  A shift in the way society thinks about energy is required to fully understand these values.  Rather than viewing energy as a commodity we need to understand that energy is a product with far reaching effects on society.  Long time critics of renewable energy often focus completely on the costs without fully exploring its total value, while renewable energy advocates preach about the benefits of renewable energy without fully acknowledging its costs.  The goal of this website is to have a real dialogue between both camps in order for everyone participating to increase their understanding.   

                                  Some of the values that are supplied by renewable energy which are not normally considered are:

                                  • Risk Management
                                  • Benefits of Emissions Reduction
                                  • Policy Incentives
                                  • Reduced Resource Use
                                  • Social Responsibility
                                  • Societal Economic Benefits
                                  • National Security

                                  To Read the whole article click:      www.alternateenergycentral.com




                                  -----Original Message-----
                                  From: Robert Johnston <junk1@...>
                                  To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
                                  Sent: Mon, 26 May 2008 10:14 pm
                                  Subject: RE: [hreg] Re: alternative energy--next bubble?

                                  Interesting point.  I doubt the author included that in his hypothesis.  On the other hand, though, oil, gas, metals, etc. are also needed by society, and yet can and have undergone bubbles (and many are believing they are again).  I’m no prophet; time will tell…

                                   

                                  Robert

                                   

                                  From: hreg@yahoogroups.com [mailto:hreg@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Chris Boyer
                                  Sent: Monday, May 26, 2008 9:34 PM
                                  To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
                                  Subject: [hreg] Re: alternative energy--next bubble?

                                   

                                  In the comparison of investments in renewables to investment in the dot.com's there are some major differences.  The existance of dot.coms were not really needed in our society, just a convenient change.  Harvesting renewable energy is essential to the survival of the human species, and if we don't grow the industry, we will be thrown back to the pre-industrial age as our supply of fossil fuel declines.  I don't think the author of the "bubble" article included that in his hypothesis.

                                  -Chris

                                   

                                   

                                   


                                  Stay informed, get connected and more with AOL on your phone.

                                • H.W. Bud Johnson
                                  Hello All: There will be winners and losers in the renewable energy field. I first became involved with renewable energy back in the mid seventies when we
                                  Message 16 of 23 , May 28, 2008
                                  • 0 Attachment

                                    Hello All:

                                    There will be winners and losers in the renewable energy field.  I first became involved with renewable energy back in the mid seventies when we worked on a pyrolysis project with Union Carbide.  The purpose of the demonstration project was to be able to take organic wastes and produce methane, and by products, as an alternative to traditional fossil fuels.  The facility failed both economically and technically.  My next projects were in the mid 80’s in trying to convert organic wastes into usable products, including fuels through other pyrolysis projects and aerobic composting projects.  The last failure was a MRF/Composting facility in Maryland that worked technically and failed financially.  All of the above projects involved some form of government money – subsidies, grants, tax credits, public funds.  When the rubber had to meet the road no politician would continue to fund the projects.  All the projects finance involved public funds and all failed.

                                    There will be a real shake out in renewable energy and in my humble opinion the sooner the better.  Today it is possible to build economically sound renewable energy projects and those that can compete will succeed.  Those that are based on subsidies, public grants, special laws, etc. will eventually fail.  A landfill not far from my home in Kingwood currently has 10 MW of power generation capacity that is sold during peak hours.  And yes, there are subsidies, while with the price of energy at its current levels it can survive without subsidies.

                                    Subsidies produce false markets, processes, and long term business failures.  There is a difference between subsidies and new processes that are more energy efficient.  During my career I have been involved in DOE and EPA projects where we received matching grants up to 50% of the project cost.  Grants where the company has “skin” in the game can be very effective.  Subsidies, regulations, and laws that try to manipulate the market will fail - free market or central government.  Yes there will be a bubble that will burst in the renewable energy market.

                                    H.W. Bud Johnson

                                    Remedial Operations Group, Inc.
                                    15010 FM 2100, #200
                                    Crosby , TX 77532

                                    Office: 281.462.8444
                                    Fax: 281.462.8544
                                    Cell: 713.503.9263

                                    Environmental Sampling - Drilling, MIP Site Assessments, Monitoring Wells, P&A, Soil Borings, Air, Water, Groundwater, Soil, Storm Water, Estuaries, Ponds, Sludge, Tanks, Containers, etc.

                                    Specialized Technologies - Geo-Cleanse > 10’ ISCO; CBA Environmental 0-12’ ISCO, Thermal, Soil Blending; McMillan -McGee - In-Situ Thermal; Dry Dredge - Environmental Dredging; Bioremedial Technologies - In-Situ Enhanced Bioremediation;  CET- Spill Buster NAPL Recovery System

                                    Construction, Operation & Maintenance - PMC2 Program, Water Treatment, Wastewater Treatment, Groundwater, Soil Remediation


                                    From: hreg@yahoogroups.com [mailto:hreg@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Robert Johnston
                                    Sent: Wednesday, May 28, 2008 6:43 PM
                                    To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
                                    Subject: RE: [hreg] Re: alternative energy--next bubble?

                                     

                                    From what I read, bubbles have more to do with excess liquidity.  When there is too much money chasing too few investments, the balloon bulges out where the money is thrown, until it pops, then the money flows somewhere else for another bubble, until it pops, etc.  Or until the money supply (liquidity) dries up, whichever happens first.  Alan Greenspan lowered interest rates dramatically and flooded the markets with money.  Asian countries ( China , etc.) and oil producers had lots of our money that they had to put somewhere, so that also flooded into the markets.  That helped create the real estate bubble that is now collapsing.  But so long as interest rates remain low and liquidity remains high, investors will continue to search for “the next big thing” to put their money in, and bid the price of those stocks up well beyond what the companies are worth.  It has little to do with intrinsic worth or the contributions of the company to society and more to what the investor psychology is and where they are running to put their money (or in most cases, not “their” money, but the money they manage—in pension funds, mutual funds, etc.).  It seems reasonable to me that alternative energy (regardless of type) companies could be overbid. 

                                     

                                    Nice article, BTW, but it is addressing societal value/costs, not how a company is valued by investors.  Just like with biotech a couple decades ago, or .com’s a decade ago, there is little question that the industry will survive—and even thrive if your arguments are correct (I’m not sure nuclear, coal, etc. won’t delay that day for quite a while yet).  However, that doesn’t mean a lot (probably majority) of alt-energy companies won’t go bankrupt and investors lose their shirts.

                                     

                                    As an aside, one of the more interesting books I’ve read on investing was Jeremy Siegel’s “The Future for Investors”.  He shows that over the long haul, the best performing stocks were not technology, but companies like Phillip Morris and the oil companies.  Alt-energy seems to me to be a technology play.  It will be governed by Moore ’s Law or some variation thereof.  Technology stocks have a poor record over the long haul, as Siegel shows.

                                     

                                    Robert

                                     

                                    From: hreg@yahoogroups. com [mailto:hreg@ yahoogroups. com] On Behalf Of phil6142@aol. com
                                    Sent: Tuesday, May 27, 2008 11:04 AM
                                    To: hreg@yahoogroups. com
                                    Subject: Re: [hreg] Re: alternative energy--next bubble?

                                     

                                    This is an interesting idea about a bubble coming and popping for Renewable energy.  The formation and popping of bubbles seem to me to have something in common.  That is that the bubble is formed by people, companies, goverment, whoever trying to gain profits without adding any real value.  This is where I think renewable energy is different from these other industries.  I believe that renewable energy installations actually create more value than we are currently assigning to them and that will help keep the industry from popping.  Here is the introduction to an article that I wrote recently following a presentation and discussion that I gave for a Professional Development seminar with Engineers Without Borders.  Please click on the link below if you are interested to read the whole article.

                                    Phillip Hamilton
                                    PhD Chemical Engineer
                                    Progen Energy, LLC
                                    www.alternateenergy central.com



                                    www.alternateenergy central.com

                                    What is the Value of Renewable Energy? Edit

                                     

                                    Written by Phillip Hamilton  

                                    Tuesday, 06 May 2008

                                     

                                    The traditional cost-plus pricing structure used to evaluate energy resources does not adequately capture the real value of renewable energy.  Many of the negative implications of conventional energy sources are externalized and there by not seen directly by the consumer as a cost.  In the same way many of the benefits of renewable energy are externalized and often not understood or considered by consumers.  A shift in the way society thinks about energy is required to fully understand these values.  Rather than viewing energy as a commodity we need to understand that energy is a product with far reaching effects on society.  Long time critics of renewable energy often focus completely on the costs without fully exploring its total value, while renewable energy advocates preach about the benefits of renewable energy without fully acknowledging its costs.  The goal of this website is to have a real dialogue between both camps in order for everyone participating to increase their understanding.   

                                    Some of the values that are supplied by renewable energy which are not normally considered are:

                                    • Risk Management
                                    • Benefits of Emissions Reduction
                                    • Policy Incentives
                                    • Reduced Resource Use
                                    • Social Responsibility
                                    • Societal Economic Benefits
                                    • National Security

                                    To Read the whole article click:      www.alternateenergy central.com




                                    -----Original Message-----
                                    From: Robert Johnston <junk1@plastability. com>
                                    To: hreg@yahoogroups. com
                                    Sent: Mon, 26 May 2008 10:14 pm
                                    Subject: RE: [hreg] Re: alternative energy--next bubble?

                                    Interesting point.  I doubt the author included that in his hypothesis.  On the other hand, though, oil, gas, metals, etc. are also needed by society, and yet can and have undergone bubbles (and many are believing they are again).  I’m no prophet; time will tell…

                                     

                                    Robert

                                     

                                    From: hreg@yahoogroups. com [mailto:hreg@yahoogroups. com] On Behalf Of Chris Boyer
                                    Sent: Monday, May 26, 2008 9:34 PM
                                    To: hreg@yahoogroups. com
                                    Subject: [hreg] Re: alternative energy--next bubble?

                                     

                                    In the comparison of investments in renewables to investment in the dot.com's there are some major differences.  The existance of dot.coms were not really needed in our society, just a convenient change.  Harvesting renewable energy is essential to the survival of the human species, and if we don't grow the industry, we will be thrown back to the pre-industrial age as our supply of fossil fuel declines.  I don't think the author of the "bubble" article included that in his hypothesis.

                                    -Chris

                                     

                                     

                                     


                                    Stay informed, get connected and more with AOL on your phone.

                                    No virus found in this incoming message.
                                    Checked by AVG.
                                    Version: 8.0.100 / Virus Database: 269.24.2/1471 - Release Date: 5/28/2008 5:33 PM

                                  • ajthomann@pol.net
                                    Bud Johnson wrote: Subsidies produce false markets, processes, and long term business failures.    I say amen -- and it seems to me that the Texas
                                    Message 17 of 23 , May 29, 2008
                                    • 0 Attachment

                                      Bud Johnson wrote: "Subsidies produce false markets, processes, and long term business failures."  

                                      I say "amen" -- and it seems to me that the Texas Depletion Allowance concept is a good (bad?) example of that.  It's coming home to roost.

                                      Ariel
                                      - We are all Human beings here together. We have to help one another, since otherwise there is NO ONE who will help.
                                      - All countries need NO REGRETS strategic policies regarding every non-renewable resource, including water.
                                      - Plan ahead seven generations -- reduce all your consumption, and eliminate waste.

                                      ----------------------------------------

                                    • Jim & Janet
                                      Steven, a perfect example of the process you mentioned: natural gas is $billion BIG in North Texas. I was contacted by a business that installs control
                                      Message 18 of 23 , Jun 4, 2008
                                      • 0 Attachment
                                        Steven,
                                        a perfect example of the process you mentioned: natural gas is $billion BIG in North Texas. I was contacted by a business that installs control equipment, among other services, to that very competitive gas drilling and production cartel. I received a call from one rep asking my cost/Watt for 400-600 medium size PV modules to power their equipment.
                                        I scrambled to get the best pricing for a specific Japanese brand I have been a dealer for for almost 5 years. I returned the guys call in just over 24 hours but he informed me that he had gone to the same mfgr. and signed up as a reseller, to themselves, and had all the PV they needed.
                                        Any manufacturer worth a damn would have told them to contact the local dealer for the best deal. As a result, I losat a $100k sale.
                                        Jim Duncan
                                        North Texas Renewable Energy Inc
                                        Fort Worth, Texas 76133
                                        817.917.057
                                        ntrei@...
                                         
                                        ----- Original Message -----
                                        Sent: Tuesday, May 27, 2008 1:36 PM
                                        Subject: Re: [hreg] Re: alternative energy--next bubble?

                                        Group,

                                        I don't know about any bubble popping for RE but I can
                                        tell you as a vendor that the industry is indeed
                                        undergoing a paradigm shift that will change the way
                                        that RE products are marketed and sold in the future.
                                        The industry never has done a good job of marketing.
                                        Historically it has rode the backs of regional dealers
                                        who were stupid enough to carry the manufacturers and
                                        distributors who should be responsible for marketing
                                        their own products. What is occurring now for the
                                        most part is large corporations and utilities are
                                        entering the RE market en masse and buying directly
                                        from the manufacturers. These large companies do not
                                        need local dealers and in some cases they are
                                        competing directly against regional dealers. The
                                        dealers who cannot recognize this shift in the
                                        industry and adapt quickly will soon become the
                                        dinosaurs of the RE business. Not sure if that is a
                                        good or bad thing but I do know that groups like TREIA
                                        have helped to expedite this shift here in the state
                                        of Texas.

                                        Steve

                                        --- phil6142@aol. com wrote:

                                        > This is an interesting idea about a bubble coming
                                        > and popping for Renewable energy.  The formation
                                        > and popping of bubbles seem to me to have something
                                        > in common.  That is that the bubble is formed by
                                        > people, companies, goverment, whoever trying to gain
                                        > profits without adding any real value.  This is
                                        > where I think renewable energy is different from
                                        > these other industries.  I believe that renewable
                                        > energy installations actually create more value than
                                        > we are currently assigning to them and that will
                                        > help keep the industry from popping.  Here is the
                                        > introduction to an article that I wrote recently
                                        > following a presentation and discussion that I gave
                                        > for a Professional Development seminar with
                                        > Engineers Without Borders.  Please click on the
                                        > link below if you are interested to read the whole
                                        > article.
                                        >
                                        > Phillip Hamilton
                                        > PhD Chemical Engineer
                                        > Progen Energy, LLC
                                        > www.alternateenergy central.com
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        > www.alternateenergy central.com
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        > What is the Value of Renewable Energy?
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        > Written by Phillip Hamilton  
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        > Tuesday, 06 May 2008
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >  
                                        >
                                        > The traditional cost-plus pricing structure used to
                                        > evaluate energy resources does not adequately
                                        > capture the real value of renewable energy.  Many
                                        > of the negative implications of conventional energy
                                        > sources are externalized and there by not seen
                                        > directly by the consumer as a cost.  In the same
                                        > way many of the benefits of renewable energy are
                                        > externalized and often not understood or considered
                                        > by consumers.  A shift in the way society thinks
                                        > about energy is required to fully understand these
                                        > values.  Rather than viewing energy as a commodity
                                        > we need to understand that energy is a product with
                                        > far reaching effects on society.  Long time critics
                                        > of renewable energy often focus completely on the
                                        > costs without fully exploring its total value, while
                                        > renewable energy advocates preach about the benefits
                                        > of renewable energy without fully acknowledging its
                                        > costs.  The goal of this website is to have a real
                                        > dialogue between both camps in order for everyone
                                        > participating to increase their understanding.   
                                        > Some of the values that are supplied by renewable
                                        > energy which are not normally considered are:
                                        >
                                        >
                                        > Risk Management
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        > Benefits of Emissions Reduction
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        > Policy Incentives
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        > Reduced Resource Use
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        > Social Responsibility
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        > Societal Economic Benefits
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        > National Security
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        > To Read the whole article click:     
                                        > www.alternateenergy central.com
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        > -----Original Message-----
                                        > From: Robert Johnston <junk1@plastability. com>
                                        > To: hreg@yahoogroups. com
                                        > Sent: Mon, 26 May 2008 10:14 pm
                                        > Subject: RE: [hreg] Re: alternative energy--next
                                        > bubble?
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        > Interesting point.  I doubt the author included
                                        > that in his hypothesis.  On the other hand, though,
                                        > oil, gas, metals, etc. are also needed by society,
                                        > and yet can and have undergone bubbles (and many are
                                        > believing they are again).  I’m no prophet; time
                                        > will tell…
                                        >
                                        >  
                                        >
                                        > Robert
                                        >
                                        >  
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        > From: hreg@yahoogroups. com
                                        > [mailto:hreg@yahoogroups. com] On Behalf Of Chris
                                        > Boyer
                                        > Sent: Monday, May 26, 2008 9:34 PM
                                        > To: hreg@yahoogroups. com
                                        > Subject: [hreg] Re: alternative energy--next bubble?
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >  
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        > In the comparison of investments in renewables
                                        > to investment in the dot.com's there are some major
                                        > differences.  The existance of dot.coms were not
                                        > really needed in our society, just a convenient
                                        > change.  Harvesting renewable energy is essential
                                        > to the survival of the human species, and if we
                                        > don't grow the industry, we will be thrown back to
                                        > the pre-industrial age as our supply of fossil fuel
                                        > declines.  I don't think the author of the "bubble"
                                        > article included that in his hypothesis.
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        > -Chris
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >  
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >  
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >  
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        >
                                        === message truncated ===

                                        Getting better all the time!

                                        Steven Shepard

                                      • Steven Shepard
                                        My sympathies Jim. Best of luck to you both. Steve ... === message truncated === Getting better all the time! Steven Shepard
                                        Message 19 of 23 , Jun 4, 2008
                                        • 0 Attachment
                                          My sympathies Jim. Best of luck to you both.

                                          Steve


                                          --- Jim & Janet <jhd1@...> wrote:

                                          > Steven,
                                          > a perfect example of the process you mentioned:
                                          > natural gas is $billion BIG in North Texas. I was
                                          > contacted by a business that installs control
                                          > equipment, among other services, to that very
                                          > competitive gas drilling and production cartel. I
                                          > received a call from one rep asking my cost/Watt for
                                          > 400-600 medium size PV modules to power their
                                          > equipment.
                                          > I scrambled to get the best pricing for a specific
                                          > Japanese brand I have been a dealer for for almost 5
                                          > years. I returned the guys call in just over 24
                                          > hours but he informed me that he had gone to the
                                          > same mfgr. and signed up as a reseller, to
                                          > themselves, and had all the PV they needed.
                                          > Any manufacturer worth a damn would have told them
                                          > to contact the local dealer for the best deal. As a
                                          > result, I losat a $100k sale.
                                          > Jim Duncan
                                          > North Texas Renewable Energy Inc
                                          > Fort Worth, Texas 76133
                                          > 817.917.057
                                          > ntrei@...
                                          >
                                          > ----- Original Message -----
                                          > From: Steven Shepard
                                          > To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
                                          > Sent: Tuesday, May 27, 2008 1:36 PM
                                          > Subject: Re: [hreg] Re: alternative energy--next
                                          > bubble?
                                          >
                                          >
                                          > Group,
                                          >
                                          > I don't know about any bubble popping for RE but I
                                          > can
                                          > tell you as a vendor that the industry is indeed
                                          > undergoing a paradigm shift that will change the
                                          > way
                                          > that RE products are marketed and sold in the
                                          > future.
                                          > The industry never has done a good job of
                                          > marketing.
                                          > Historically it has rode the backs of regional
                                          > dealers
                                          > who were stupid enough to carry the manufacturers
                                          > and
                                          > distributors who should be responsible for
                                          > marketing
                                          > their own products. What is occurring now for the
                                          > most part is large corporations and utilities are
                                          > entering the RE market en masse and buying
                                          > directly
                                          > from the manufacturers. These large companies do
                                          > not
                                          > need local dealers and in some cases they are
                                          > competing directly against regional dealers. The
                                          > dealers who cannot recognize this shift in the
                                          > industry and adapt quickly will soon become the
                                          > dinosaurs of the RE business. Not sure if that is
                                          > a
                                          > good or bad thing but I do know that groups like
                                          > TREIA
                                          > have helped to expedite this shift here in the
                                          > state
                                          > of Texas.
                                          >
                                          > Steve
                                          >
                                          > --- phil6142@... wrote:
                                          >
                                          > > This is an interesting idea about a bubble
                                          > coming
                                          > > and popping for Renewable energy. The
                                          > formation
                                          > > and popping of bubbles seem to me to have
                                          > something
                                          > > in common. That is that the bubble is formed
                                          > by
                                          > > people, companies, goverment, whoever trying to
                                          > gain
                                          > > profits without adding any real value. This is
                                          > > where I think renewable energy is different from
                                          > > these other industries. I believe that
                                          > renewable
                                          > > energy installations actually create more value
                                          > than
                                          > > we are currently assigning to them and that will
                                          > > help keep the industry from popping. Here is
                                          > the
                                          > > introduction to an article that I wrote recently
                                          > > following a presentation and discussion that I
                                          > gave
                                          > > for a Professional Development seminar with
                                          > > Engineers Without Borders. Please click on the
                                          > > link below if you are interested to read the
                                          > whole
                                          > > article.
                                          > >
                                          > > Phillip Hamilton
                                          > > PhD Chemical Engineer
                                          > > Progen Energy, LLC
                                          > > www.alternateenergycentral.com
                                          > >
                                          > >
                                          > >
                                          > > www.alternateenergycentral.com
                                          > >
                                          > >
                                          > >
                                          > >
                                          > >
                                          > >
                                          > >
                                          > >
                                          > >
                                          > >
                                          > > What is the Value of Renewable Energy?
                                          > >
                                          > >
                                          > >
                                          > >
                                          > >
                                          > >
                                          > >
                                          > > Written by Phillip Hamilton Â
                                          > >
                                          > >
                                          > >
                                          > > Tuesday, 06 May 2008
                                          > >
                                          > >
                                          > >
                                          > >
                                          > > Â
                                          > >
                                          > > The traditional cost-plus pricing structure used
                                          > to
                                          > > evaluate energy resources does not adequately
                                          > > capture the real value of renewable energy.Â
                                          > Many
                                          > > of the negative implications of conventional
                                          > energy
                                          > > sources are externalized and there by not seen
                                          > > directly by the consumer as a cost. In the
                                          > same
                                          > > way many of the benefits of renewable energy are
                                          > > externalized and often not understood or
                                          > considered
                                          > > by consumers. A shift in the way society
                                          > thinks
                                          > > about energy is required to fully understand
                                          > these
                                          > > values. Rather than viewing energy as a
                                          > commodity
                                          > > we need to understand that energy is a product
                                          > with
                                          > > far reaching effects on society. Long time
                                          > critics
                                          > > of renewable energy often focus completely on
                                          > the
                                          > > costs without fully exploring its total value,
                                          > while
                                          > > renewable energy advocates preach about the
                                          > benefits
                                          > > of renewable energy without fully acknowledging
                                          > its
                                          > > costs. The goal of this website is to have a
                                          > real
                                          > > dialogue between both camps in order for
                                          > everyone
                                          > > participating to increase their understanding.Â
                                          > Â Â
                                          > > Some of the values that are supplied by
                                          > renewable
                                          > > energy which are not normally considered are:
                                          > >
                                          > >
                                          > > Risk Management
                                          > >
                                          > >
                                          > >
                                          > > Benefits of Emissions Reduction
                                          > >
                                          > >
                                          > >
                                          > > Policy Incentives
                                          > >
                                          > >
                                          > >
                                          > > Reduced Resource Use
                                          > >
                                          > >
                                          > >
                                          > > Social Responsibility
                                          > >
                                          > >
                                          > >
                                          > > Societal Economic Benefits
                                          > >
                                          > >
                                          >
                                          === message truncated ===


                                          Getting better all the time!

                                          Steven Shepard
                                        • Tom Ritter
                                          The discussion on RE and whether the industry in general is in an investment bubble reminded me of an article I read a few weeks ago. I found the article
                                          Message 20 of 23 , Jun 11, 2008
                                          • 0 Attachment

                                            The discussion on RE and whether the industry in general is in an investment bubble reminded me of an article I read a few weeks ago.  I found the article interesting and thought some of you may as well.

                                             

                                            Tom

                                             

                                             

                                            From: hreg@yahoogroups.com [mailto:hreg@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of H.W. Bud Johnson
                                            Sent: Wednesday, May 28, 2008 8:44 PM
                                            To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
                                            Subject: RE: [hreg] Re: alternative energy--next bubble?

                                             

                                            Hello All:

                                            There will be winners and losers in the renewable energy field.  I first became involved with renewable energy back in the mid seventies when we worked on a pyrolysis project with Union Carbide.  The purpose of the demonstration project was to be able to take organic wastes and produce methane, and by products, as an alternative to traditional fossil fuels.  The facility failed both economically and technically.  My next projects were in the mid 80’s in trying to convert organic wastes into usable products, including fuels through other pyrolysis projects and aerobic composting projects.  The last failure was a MRF/Composting facility in Maryland that worked technically and failed financially.  All of the above projects involved some form of government money – subsidies, grants, tax credits, public funds.  When the rubber had to meet the road no politician would continue to fund the projects.  All the projects finance involved public funds and all failed.

                                            There will be a real shake out in renewable energy and in my humble opinion the sooner the better.  Today it is possible to build economically sound renewable energy projects and those that can compete will succeed.  Those that are based on subsidies, public grants, special laws, etc. will eventually fail.  A landfill not far from my home in Kingwood currently has 10 MW of power generation capacity that is sold during peak hours.  And yes, there are subsidies, while with the price of energy at its current levels it can survive without subsidies.

                                            Subsidies produce false markets, processes, and long term business failures.  There is a difference between subsidies and new processes that are more energy efficient.  During my career I have been involved in DOE and EPA projects where we received matching grants up to 50% of the project cost.  Grants where the company has “skin” in the game can be very effective.  Subsidies, regulations, and laws that try to manipulate the market will fail - free market or central government.  Yes there will be a bubble that will burst in the renewable energy market.

                                            H.W. Bud Johnson

                                            Remedial Operations Group, Inc.
                                            15010 FM 2100, #200
                                            Crosby, TX 77532

                                            Office: 281.462.8444
                                            Fax: 281.462.8544
                                            Cell: 713.503.9263

                                            Environmental Sampling - Drilling, MIP Site Assessments, Monitoring Wells, P&A, Soil Borings, Air, Water, Groundwater, Soil, Storm Water, Estuaries, Ponds, Sludge, Tanks, Containers, etc.

                                            Specialized Technologies - Geo-Cleanse > 10’ ISCO; CBA Environmental 0-12’ ISCO, Thermal, Soil Blending; McMillan -McGee - In-Situ Thermal; Dry Dredge - Environmental Dredging; Bioremedial Technologies - In-Situ Enhanced Bioremediation;  CET- Spill Buster NAPL Recovery System

                                            Construction, Operation & Maintenance - PMC2 Program, Water Treatment, Wastewater Treatment, Groundwater, Soil Remediation


                                            From: hreg@yahoogroups.com [mailto:hreg@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Robert Johnston
                                            Sent: Wednesday, May 28, 2008 6:43 PM
                                            To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
                                            Subject: RE: [hreg] Re: alternative energy--next bubble?

                                             

                                            From what I read, bubbles have more to do with excess liquidity.  When there is too much money chasing too few investments, the balloon bulges out where the money is thrown, until it pops, then the money flows somewhere else for another bubble, until it pops, etc.  Or until the money supply (liquidity) dries up, whichever happens first.  Alan Greenspan lowered interest rates dramatically and flooded the markets with money.  Asian countries (China, etc.) and oil producers had lots of our money that they had to put somewhere, so that also flooded into the markets.  That helped create the real estate bubble that is now collapsing.  But so long as interest rates remain low and liquidity remains high, investors will continue to search for “the next big thing” to put their money in, and bid the price of those stocks up well beyond what the companies are worth.  It has little to do with intrinsic worth or the contributions of the company to society and more to what the investor psychology is and where they are running to put their money (or in most cases, not “their” money, but the money they manage—in pension funds, mutual funds, etc.).  It seems reasonable to me that alternative energy (regardless of type) companies could be overbid. 

                                             

                                            Nice article, BTW, but it is addressing societal value/costs, not how a company is valued by investors.  Just like with biotech a couple decades ago, or .com’s a decade ago, there is little question that the industry will survive—and even thrive if your arguments are correct (I’m not sure nuclear, coal, etc. won’t delay that day for quite a while yet).  However, that doesn’t mean a lot (probably majority) of alt-energy companies won’t go bankrupt and investors lose their shirts.

                                             

                                            As an aside, one of the more interesting books I’ve read on investing was Jeremy Siegel’s “The Future for Investors”.  He shows that over the long haul, the best performing stocks were not technology, but companies like Phillip Morris and the oil companies.  Alt-energy seems to me to be a technology play.  It will be governed by Moore’s Law or some variation thereof.  Technology stocks have a poor record over the long haul, as Siegel shows.

                                             

                                            Robert

                                             

                                            From: hreg@yahoogroups.com [mailto:hreg@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of phil6142@...
                                            Sent: Tuesday, May 27, 2008 11:04 AM
                                            To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
                                            Subject: Re: [hreg] Re: alternative energy--next bubble?

                                             

                                            This is an interesting idea about a bubble coming and popping for Renewable energy.  The formation and popping of bubbles seem to me to have something in common.  That is that the bubble is formed by people, companies, goverment, whoever trying to gain profits without adding any real value.  This is where I think renewable energy is different from these other industries.  I believe that renewable energy installations actually create more value than we are currently assigning to them and that will help keep the industry from popping.  Here is the introduction to an article that I wrote recently following a presentation and discussion that I gave for a Professional Development seminar with Engineers Without Borders.  Please click on the link below if you are interested to read the whole article.

                                            Phillip Hamilton
                                            PhD Chemical Engineer
                                            Progen Energy, LLC
                                            www.alternateenergycentral.com



                                            www.alternateenergycentral.com

                                            What is the Value of Renewable Energy? Image removed by sender. Edit

                                             

                                            Written by Phillip Hamilton  

                                            Tuesday, 06 May 2008

                                             

                                            The traditional cost-plus pricing structure used to evaluate energy resources does not adequately capture the real value of renewable energy.  Many of the negative implications of conventional energy sources are externalized and there by not seen directly by the consumer as a cost.  In the same way many of the benefits of renewable energy are externalized and often not understood or considered by consumers.  A shift in the way society thinks about energy is required to fully understand these values.  Rather than viewing energy as a commodity we need to understand that energy is a product with far reaching effects on society.  Long time critics of renewable energy often focus completely on the costs without fully exploring its total value, while renewable energy advocates preach about the benefits of renewable energy without fully acknowledging its costs.  The goal of this website is to have a real dialogue between both camps in order for everyone participating to increase their understanding.   

                                            Some of the values that are supplied by renewable energy which are not normally considered are:

                                            • Risk Management
                                            • Benefits of Emissions Reduction
                                            • Policy Incentives
                                            • Reduced Resource Use
                                            • Social Responsibility
                                            • Societal Economic Benefits
                                            • National Security

                                            To Read the whole article click:      www.alternateenergycentral.com




                                            -----Original Message-----
                                            From: Robert Johnston <junk1@...>
                                            To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
                                            Sent: Mon, 26 May 2008 10:14 pm
                                            Subject: RE: [hreg] Re: alternative energy--next bubble?

                                            Interesting point.  I doubt the author included that in his hypothesis.  On the other hand, though, oil, gas, metals, etc. are also needed by society, and yet can and have undergone bubbles (and many are believing they are again).  I’m no prophet; time will tell…

                                             

                                            Robert

                                             

                                            From: hreg@yahoogroups.com [mailto:hreg@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Chris Boyer
                                            Sent: Monday, May 26, 2008 9:34 PM
                                            To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
                                            Subject: [hreg] Re: alternative energy--next bubble?

                                             

                                            In the comparison of investments in renewables to investment in the dot.com's there are some major differences.  The existance of dot.coms were not really needed in our society, just a convenient change.  Harvesting renewable energy is essential to the survival of the human species, and if we don't grow the industry, we will be thrown back to the pre-industrial age as our supply of fossil fuel declines.  I don't think the author of the "bubble" article included that in his hypothesis.

                                            -Chris

                                             

                                             

                                             


                                            Stay informed, get connected and more with AOL on your phone.

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                                          • Robert Johnston
                                            Interesting profiles of 3 professors. Of course, “Helicopter Ben” doesn’t seem to be doing a good job of managing the situation at the Fed either.
                                            Message 21 of 23 , Jun 13, 2008
                                            • 0 Attachment

                                              Interesting profiles of 3 professors.  Of course, “Helicopter Ben” doesn’t seem to be doing a good job of managing the situation at the Fed either.  Perhaps that relates to this comment from his protégé:  “…offers a strong argument, in Mr. Hong's view, for government to restrain bubbles and the borrowing that fuels them.”  Government intervention is partly responsible for the bubbles in the first place; I’m skeptical that it would be helpful for the government to intervene to restrain them, adding yet another layer of implied safety to deceive investors (“the government will intervene before this thing gets out of hand, so meantime, I’ll keep buying shares…”).  Excess liquidity from too much liquidity (helicopter dollars) and an implied safety guarantee (the government will bail you out if you make risky investments and they go bad—that means anything from building in hurricane/flood zones, buying highly leveraged investments, buying more house than you need or can afford simply because you think it will rise in price, major banks/hedge funds making risky loans and investments, etc.) is probably a significant factor in the extent to which buyers are willing to bid up stocks, commodities, housing, etc.  Bubbles are all about taking risks in hopes of large returns.  If they couldn’t do so on borrowed money, or believe that they would get bailed out if they failed, then investors would be more cautious and bubbles wouldn’t inflate so much.  Thus, I think the Bernenke and his minions aren’t helping things in the long term, but just preparing the way for even bigger bubbles in the future.

                                               

                                              But back to renewables, the article does suggest some interesting warning signs—high volatility and high trading volume—as clues to when the RE industry shares might be peaking.  Time will tell.

                                               

                                              Robert

                                               

                                               

                                              From: hreg@yahoogroups.com [mailto:hreg@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Tom Ritter
                                              Sent: Wednesday, June 11, 2008 1:53 PM
                                              To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
                                              Subject: RE: [hreg] Re: alternative energy--next bubble?

                                               

                                              The discussion on RE and whether the industry in general is in an investment bubble reminded me of an article I read a few weeks ago.  I found the article interesting and thought some of you may as well.

                                               

                                              Tom

                                               

                                               

                                              From: hreg@yahoogroups.com [mailto:hreg@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of H.W. Bud Johnson
                                              Sent: Wednesday, May 28, 2008 8:44 PM
                                              To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
                                              Subject: RE: [hreg] Re: alternative energy--next bubble?

                                               

                                              Hello All:

                                              There will be winners and losers in the renewable energy field.  I first became involved with renewable energy back in the mid seventies when we worked on a pyrolysis project with Union Carbide.  The purpose of the demonstration project was to be able to take organic wastes and produce methane, and by products, as an alternative to traditional fossil fuels.  The facility failed both economically and technically.  My next projects were in the mid 80’s in trying to convert organic wastes into usable products, including fuels through other pyrolysis projects and aerobic composting projects.  The last failure was a MRF/Composting facility in Maryland that worked technically and failed financially.  All of the above projects involved some form of government money – subsidies, grants, tax credits, public funds.  When the rubber had to meet the road no politician would continue to fund the projects.  All the projects finance involved public funds and all failed.

                                              There will be a real shake out in renewable energy and in my humble opinion the sooner the better.  Today it is possible to build economically sound renewable energy projects and those that can compete will succeed.  Those that are based on subsidies, public grants, special laws, etc. will eventually fail.  A landfill not far from my home in Kingwood currently has 10 MW of power generation capacity that is sold during peak hours.  And yes, there are subsidies, while with the price of energy at its current levels it can survive without subsidies.

                                              Subsidies produce false markets, processes, and long term business failures.  There is a difference between subsidies and new processes that are more energy efficient.  During my career I have been involved in DOE and EPA projects where we received matching grants up to 50% of the project cost.  Grants where the company has “skin” in the game can be very effective.  Subsidies, regulations, and laws that try to manipulate the market will fail - free market or central government.  Yes there will be a bubble that will burst in the renewable energy market.

                                              H.W. Bud Johnson

                                              Remedial Operations Group, Inc.
                                              15010 FM 2100, #200
                                              Crosby, TX 77532

                                              Office: 281.462.8444
                                              Fax: 281.462.8544
                                              Cell: 713.503.9263

                                              Environmental Sampling - Drilling, MIP Site Assessments, Monitoring Wells, P&A, Soil Borings, Air, Water, Groundwater, Soil, Storm Water, Estuaries, Ponds, Sludge, Tanks, Containers, etc.

                                              Specialized Technologies - Geo-Cleanse > 10’ ISCO; CBA Environmental 0-12’ ISCO, Thermal, Soil Blending; McMillan -McGee - In-Situ Thermal; Dry Dredge - Environmental Dredging; Bioremedial Technologies - In-Situ Enhanced Bioremediation;  CET- Spill Buster NAPL Recovery System

                                              Construction, Operation & Maintenance - PMC2 Program, Water Treatment, Wastewater Treatment, Groundwater, Soil Remediation


                                              From: hreg@yahoogroups.com [mailto:hreg@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Robert Johnston
                                              Sent: Wednesday, May 28, 2008 6:43 PM
                                              To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
                                              Subject: RE: [hreg] Re: alternative energy--next bubble?

                                               

                                              From what I read, bubbles have more to do with excess liquidity.  When there is too much money chasing too few investments, the balloon bulges out where the money is thrown, until it pops, then the money flows somewhere else for another bubble, until it pops, etc.  Or until the money supply (liquidity) dries up, whichever happens first.  Alan Greenspan lowered interest rates dramatically and flooded the markets with money.  Asian countries (China, etc.) and oil producers had lots of our money that they had to put somewhere, so that also flooded into the markets.  That helped create the real estate bubble that is now collapsing.  But so long as interest rates remain low and liquidity remains high, investors will continue to search for “the next big thing” to put their money in, and bid the price of those stocks up well beyond what the companies are worth.  It has little to do with intrinsic worth or the contributions of the company to society and more to what the investor psychology is and where they are running to put their money (or in most cases, not “their” money, but the money they manage—in pension funds, mutual funds, etc.).  It seems reasonable to me that alternative energy (regardless of type) companies could be overbid. 

                                               

                                              Nice article, BTW, but it is addressing societal value/costs, not how a company is valued by investors.  Just like with biotech a couple decades ago, or .com’s a decade ago, there is little question that the industry will survive—and even thrive if your arguments are correct (I’m not sure nuclear, coal, etc. won’t delay that day for quite a while yet).  However, that doesn’t mean a lot (probably majority) of alt-energy companies won’t go bankrupt and investors lose their shirts.

                                               

                                              As an aside, one of the more interesting books I’ve read on investing was Jeremy Siegel’s “The Future for Investors”.  He shows that over the long haul, the best performing stocks were not technology, but companies like Phillip Morris and the oil companies.  Alt-energy seems to me to be a technology play.  It will be governed by Moore’s Law or some variation thereof.  Technology stocks have a poor record over the long haul, as Siegel shows.

                                               

                                              Robert

                                               

                                              From: hreg@yahoogroups.com [mailto:hreg@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of phil6142@...
                                              Sent: Tuesday, May 27, 2008 11:04 AM
                                              To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
                                              Subject: Re: [hreg] Re: alternative energy--next bubble?

                                               

                                              This is an interesting idea about a bubble coming and popping for Renewable energy.  The formation and popping of bubbles seem to me to have something in common.  That is that the bubble is formed by people, companies, goverment, whoever trying to gain profits without adding any real value.  This is where I think renewable energy is different from these other industries.  I believe that renewable energy installations actually create more value than we are currently assigning to them and that will help keep the industry from popping.  Here is the introduction to an article that I wrote recently following a presentation and discussion that I gave for a Professional Development seminar with Engineers Without Borders.  Please click on the link below if you are interested to read the whole article.

                                              Phillip Hamilton
                                              PhD Chemical Engineer
                                              Progen Energy, LLC
                                              www.alternateenergycentral.com



                                              www.alternateenergycentral.com

                                              What is the Value of Renewable Energy? Image removed by sender. Edit

                                               

                                              Written by Phillip Hamilton  

                                              Tuesday, 06 May 2008

                                               

                                              The traditional cost-plus pricing structure used to evaluate energy resources does not adequately capture the real value of renewable energy.  Many of the negative implications of conventional energy sources are externalized and there by not seen directly by the consumer as a cost.  In the same way many of the benefits of renewable energy are externalized and often not understood or considered by consumers.  A shift in the way society thinks about energy is required to fully understand these values.  Rather than viewing energy as a commodity we need to understand that energy is a product with far reaching effects on society.  Long time critics of renewable energy often focus completely on the costs without fully exploring its total value, while renewable energy advocates preach about the benefits of renewable energy without fully acknowledging its costs.  The goal of this website is to have a real dialogue between both camps in order for everyone participating to increase their understanding.   

                                              Some of the values that are supplied by renewable energy which are not normally considered are:

                                              • Risk Management
                                              • Benefits of Emissions Reduction
                                              • Policy Incentives
                                              • Reduced Resource Use
                                              • Social Responsibility
                                              • Societal Economic Benefits
                                              • National Security

                                              To Read the whole article click:      www.alternateenergycentral.com




                                              -----Original Message-----
                                              From: Robert Johnston <junk1@...>
                                              To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
                                              Sent: Mon, 26 May 2008 10:14 pm
                                              Subject: RE: [hreg] Re: alternative energy--next bubble?

                                              Interesting point.  I doubt the author included that in his hypothesis.  On the other hand, though, oil, gas, metals, etc. are also needed by society, and yet can and have undergone bubbles (and many are believing they are again).  I’m no prophet; time will tell…

                                               

                                              Robert

                                               

                                              From: hreg@yahoogroups.com [mailto:hreg@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Chris Boyer
                                              Sent: Monday, May 26, 2008 9:34 PM
                                              To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
                                              Subject: [hreg] Re: alternative energy--next bubble?

                                               

                                              In the comparison of investments in renewables to investment in the dot.com's there are some major differences.  The existance of dot.coms were not really needed in our society, just a convenient change.  Harvesting renewable energy is essential to the survival of the human species, and if we don't grow the industry, we will be thrown back to the pre-industrial age as our supply of fossil fuel declines.  I don't think the author of the "bubble" article included that in his hypothesis.

                                              -Chris

                                               

                                               

                                               


                                              Stay informed, get connected and more with AOL on your phone.

                                              No virus found in this incoming message.
                                              Checked by AVG.
                                              Version: 8.0.100 / Virus Database: 269.24.2/1471 - Release Date: 5/28/2008 5:33 PM

                                               

                                            • Robert Johnston
                                              Incidentally, Zack s just featured the solar industry in their online newsletter: http://www.zacks.com/images/logo.jpg Return to
                                              Message 22 of 23 , Jun 13, 2008
                                              • 0 Attachment

                                                Incidentally, Zack’s just featured the solar industry in their online newsletter:

                                                 

                                                http://www.zacks.com/images/logo.jpg

                                                Return to Regular View
                                                 URL: http://www.zacks.com/newsroom/commentary/index.php?id=7840

                                                Solar Firms Up With the Sun
                                                by Jonathan Kolb
                                                Jun 13, 2008

                                                Zacks senior alternative energy analyst Jon Kolb was on hand recently to give us his views on where the biggest strength is at the present time. He was also kind enough to give us three Buy recommendations within the space.

                                                What is your view on the overall alternative energy sector at the present time?

                                                The investment outlook for the alternative energy industry is bullish, in our view, with significant growth potential over the next 5-10 years. As with any burgeoning industry segment, there will likely continue to be rapid changes within individual names as new technologies continue to evolve, although the longer-term trend is favorable for diversified long-term investors.

                                                Those investors seeking to capitalize on the ongoing efforts to reduce both domestic and global dependence upon the dominant oil and natural gas producing regions of the globe may wish to focus on emerging and established firms engaged in wind power, solar/photovoltaic, solar thermal, geo-thermal, hydro, marine and biomass-based energy sources. Dozens of such companies exist within the U.S. and many more internationally, ranging from micro-cap ventures to large-cap multinationals.

                                                There is one caveat, however. Individual names will likely continue to experience high volatility in securities prices although a well-diversified portfolio of alternative energy names would be well positioned to profit from rapid growth in the sector.

                                                Let’s start with one such name you recommend.

                                                We remain optimistic about Energy Conversion Devices’ (ENER) long-term potential success, given increased activity in solar power projects. The company also achieved profitability in the reported quarter for the first time since it went public in 1969.

                                                The company’s operating segment, United Solar Ovonics, has a total annual production capacity of 118MW (megawatts). Ongoing expansion plans will increase United Solar’s manufacturing capacity to 178MW by the first half of 2009 and to over 300MW per annum by the end of fiscal 2010. United Solar signed an 18-month agreement with EDF Energies Nouvelles (EDF EN) in September 2007, to supply up to 30MW of thin-film PV laminates for large-scale installations on industrial and commercial buildings.

                                                United Solar’s laminates will be installed on the roof of the General Motors (GM) facility at Fontana in California. United Solar Ovonic also signed a three-year distributor agreement with Advanced Green Technologies, Inc. for $108 million of Photovoltaic (PV) products.

                                                Any caveats regarding a stock like ENER?

                                                The company is developing and expanding its solar business while exiting other non-core businesses. We note the stock’s high volatility, pending sale of its Cobasys joint venture, and higher preproduction costs. Additionally, despite increasing product revenue, the internal restructuring processes and several recently announced contracts, we question the profitability potential of licensing royalties.

                                                A history of negative profit margins, operating income and negative historical earnings, including EPS losses until Q2 08, without meaningful valuation metrics, collectively show potential for moderate-to-high returns yet with high risk. Accordingly, we maintain a speculative BUY recommendation on ENER common stock with a six-month target price of $74.00, representing 13.2% upside potential.

                                                What is another company you see benefiting in this space?

                                                The fortunes of SunPower (SPWR) appear greener given the very high growth potential in the alternative energy industry, and specifically solar power energy, with apparently greater certainty of polysilicon supply through SunPower s new 5-year supply agreement with Jiawei SolarChina. In addition, a new solar cell manufacturing facility in the Philippines and the company s expansion into the Italian market with the acquisition of Solar Solutions adds visibility to the story.

                                                New cheaper polysilicon supply contracts and thinner wafers are improving the solar cell and panel production overheads. We have a BUY recommendation on SPWR common stock with a six-month target price of $106.75. Price appreciation to our near-term target price represents 34.6% upside potential.

                                                What are some of the main advantages of solar power, in your view?

                                                Compared to other renewable energy technologies, solar power is one of the most benign electric generation resources. Solar cells generate electricity without air or water emissions, noise, vibration, habitat impact or waste generation.

                                                Unlike fossil and nuclear fuels, solar energy has no risk of fuel price volatility or delivery risk. Although there is variability in the amount and timing of sunlight over the day, season and year, a properly sized and configured system can be designed to be highly reliable while providing a long-term, fixed price electric supply.

                                                Also, unlike other renewable resources such as hydroelectric and wind power, solar power is generally located at a customer site due to the universal availability of sunlight. As a result, solar power limits the expense of, and energy losses associated with, transmission and distribution from large-scale electric plants to the end users. For most residential consumers seeking an environmentally friendly power alternative, solar power is the only viable choice because it can be located in urban and suburban environments.

                                                Any other big stories out there among solar energy or other alt-energy companies?

                                                VeraSun Energy (VSE) is on the fast track of growth with its recent merger with fellow biofuel company U.S. BioEnergy. Earnings rose in the reported 1st quarter due to higher ethanol volumes and prices, partially offset by surging corn prices. Post-merger, the company is expected to become the largest bio-fuel company in the world.

                                                However, the cyclicality of the ethanol industry and rising prices of corn and natural gas, remain a concern. Nevertheless, recent bullishness on the energy bill for ethanol production, rising crude oil prices, ongoing capacity expansion plans and value unlocking through synergies from the recent merger with USBE should maintain the momentum of growth over the near-term. We also have a BUY recommendation on VeraSun, with a six-month target price of $7.50, representing 27.1% upside potential.

                                                Jon Kolb is a senior analyst covering the alternative energy industry for Zacks Equity Research.

                                                 

                                                 

                                                From: hreg@yahoogroups.com [mailto:hreg@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Tom Ritter
                                                Sent: Wednesday, June 11, 2008 1:53 PM
                                                To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
                                                Subject: RE: [hreg] Re: alternative energy--next bubble?

                                                 

                                                The discussion on RE and whether the industry in general is in an investment bubble reminded me of an article I read a few weeks ago.  I found the article interesting and thought some of you may as well.

                                                 

                                                Tom

                                                 

                                                 

                                                From: hreg@yahoogroups.com [mailto:hreg@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of H.W. Bud Johnson
                                                Sent: Wednesday, May 28, 2008 8:44 PM
                                                To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
                                                Subject: RE: [hreg] Re: alternative energy--next bubble?

                                                 

                                                Hello All:

                                                There will be winners and losers in the renewable energy field.  I first became involved with renewable energy back in the mid seventies when we worked on a pyrolysis project with Union Carbide.  The purpose of the demonstration project was to be able to take organic wastes and produce methane, and by products, as an alternative to traditional fossil fuels.  The facility failed both economically and technically.  My next projects were in the mid 80’s in trying to convert organic wastes into usable products, including fuels through other pyrolysis projects and aerobic composting projects.  The last failure was a MRF/Composting facility in Maryland that worked technically and failed financially.  All of the above projects involved some form of government money – subsidies, grants, tax credits, public funds.  When the rubber had to meet the road no politician would continue to fund the projects.  All the projects finance involved public funds and all failed.

                                                There will be a real shake out in renewable energy and in my humble opinion the sooner the better.  Today it is possible to build economically sound renewable energy projects and those that can compete will succeed.  Those that are based on subsidies, public grants, special laws, etc. will eventually fail.  A landfill not far from my home in Kingwood currently has 10 MW of power generation capacity that is sold during peak hours.  And yes, there are subsidies, while with the price of energy at its current levels it can survive without subsidies.

                                                Subsidies produce false markets, processes, and long term business failures.  There is a difference between subsidies and new processes that are more energy efficient.  During my career I have been involved in DOE and EPA projects where we received matching grants up to 50% of the project cost.  Grants where the company has “skin” in the game can be very effective.  Subsidies, regulations, and laws that try to manipulate the market will fail - free market or central government.  Yes there will be a bubble that will burst in the renewable energy market.

                                                H.W. Bud Johnson

                                                Remedial Operations Group, Inc.
                                                15010 FM 2100, #200
                                                Crosby, TX 77532

                                                Office: 281.462.8444
                                                Fax: 281.462.8544
                                                Cell: 713.503.9263

                                                Environmental Sampling - Drilling, MIP Site Assessments, Monitoring Wells, P&A, Soil Borings, Air, Water, Groundwater, Soil, Storm Water, Estuaries, Ponds, Sludge, Tanks, Containers, etc.

                                                Specialized Technologies - Geo-Cleanse > 10’ ISCO; CBA Environmental 0-12’ ISCO, Thermal, Soil Blending; McMillan -McGee - In-Situ Thermal; Dry Dredge - Environmental Dredging; Bioremedial Technologies - In-Situ Enhanced Bioremediation;  CET- Spill Buster NAPL Recovery System

                                                Construction, Operation & Maintenance - PMC2 Program, Water Treatment, Wastewater Treatment, Groundwater, Soil Remediation


                                                From: hreg@yahoogroups.com [mailto:hreg@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Robert Johnston
                                                Sent: Wednesday, May 28, 2008 6:43 PM
                                                To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
                                                Subject: RE: [hreg] Re: alternative energy--next bubble?

                                                 

                                                From what I read, bubbles have more to do with excess liquidity.  When there is too much money chasing too few investments, the balloon bulges out where the money is thrown, until it pops, then the money flows somewhere else for another bubble, until it pops, etc.  Or until the money supply (liquidity) dries up, whichever happens first.  Alan Greenspan lowered interest rates dramatically and flooded the markets with money.  Asian countries (China, etc.) and oil producers had lots of our money that they had to put somewhere, so that also flooded into the markets.  That helped create the real estate bubble that is now collapsing.  But so long as interest rates remain low and liquidity remains high, investors will continue to search for “the next big thing” to put their money in, and bid the price of those stocks up well beyond what the companies are worth.  It has little to do with intrinsic worth or the contributions of the company to society and more to what the investor psychology is and where they are running to put their money (or in most cases, not “their” money, but the money they manage—in pension funds, mutual funds, etc.).  It seems reasonable to me that alternative energy (regardless of type) companies could be overbid. 

                                                 

                                                Nice article, BTW, but it is addressing societal value/costs, not how a company is valued by investors.  Just like with biotech a couple decades ago, or .com’s a decade ago, there is little question that the industry will survive—and even thrive if your arguments are correct (I’m not sure nuclear, coal, etc. won’t delay that day for quite a while yet).  However, that doesn’t mean a lot (probably majority) of alt-energy companies won’t go bankrupt and investors lose their shirts.

                                                 

                                                As an aside, one of the more interesting books I’ve read on investing was Jeremy Siegel’s “The Future for Investors”.  He shows that over the long haul, the best performing stocks were not technology, but companies like Phillip Morris and the oil companies.  Alt-energy seems to me to be a technology play.  It will be governed by Moore’s Law or some variation thereof.  Technology stocks have a poor record over the long haul, as Siegel shows.

                                                 

                                                Robert

                                                 

                                                From: hreg@yahoogroups.com [mailto:hreg@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of phil6142@...
                                                Sent: Tuesday, May 27, 2008 11:04 AM
                                                To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
                                                Subject: Re: [hreg] Re: alternative energy--next bubble?

                                                 

                                                This is an interesting idea about a bubble coming and popping for Renewable energy.  The formation and popping of bubbles seem to me to have something in common.  That is that the bubble is formed by people, companies, goverment, whoever trying to gain profits without adding any real value.  This is where I think renewable energy is different from these other industries.  I believe that renewable energy installations actually create more value than we are currently assigning to them and that will help keep the industry from popping.  Here is the introduction to an article that I wrote recently following a presentation and discussion that I gave for a Professional Development seminar with Engineers Without Borders.  Please click on the link below if you are interested to read the whole article.

                                                Phillip Hamilton
                                                PhD Chemical Engineer
                                                Progen Energy, LLC
                                                www.alternateenergycentral.com



                                                www.alternateenergycentral.com

                                                What is the Value of Renewable Energy? Image removed by sender. Edit

                                                 

                                                Written by Phillip Hamilton  

                                                Tuesday, 06 May 2008

                                                 

                                                The traditional cost-plus pricing structure used to evaluate energy resources does not adequately capture the real value of renewable energy.  Many of the negative implications of conventional energy sources are externalized and there by not seen directly by the consumer as a cost.  In the same way many of the benefits of renewable energy are externalized and often not understood or considered by consumers.  A shift in the way society thinks about energy is required to fully understand these values.  Rather than viewing energy as a commodity we need to understand that energy is a product with far reaching effects on society.  Long time critics of renewable energy often focus completely on the costs without fully exploring its total value, while renewable energy advocates preach about the benefits of renewable energy without fully acknowledging its costs.  The goal of this website is to have a real dialogue between both camps in order for everyone participating to increase their understanding.   

                                                Some of the values that are supplied by renewable energy which are not normally considered are:

                                                • Risk Management
                                                • Benefits of Emissions Reduction
                                                • Policy Incentives
                                                • Reduced Resource Use
                                                • Social Responsibility
                                                • Societal Economic Benefits
                                                • National Security

                                                To Read the whole article click:      www.alternateenergycentral.com




                                                -----Original Message-----
                                                From: Robert Johnston <junk1@...>
                                                To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
                                                Sent: Mon, 26 May 2008 10:14 pm
                                                Subject: RE: [hreg] Re: alternative energy--next bubble?

                                                Interesting point.  I doubt the author included that in his hypothesis.  On the other hand, though, oil, gas, metals, etc. are also needed by society, and yet can and have undergone bubbles (and many are believing they are again).  I’m no prophet; time will tell…

                                                 

                                                Robert

                                                 

                                                From: hreg@yahoogroups.com [mailto:hreg@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Chris Boyer
                                                Sent: Monday, May 26, 2008 9:34 PM
                                                To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
                                                Subject: [hreg] Re: alternative energy--next bubble?

                                                 

                                                In the comparison of investments in renewables to investment in the dot.com's there are some major differences.  The existance of dot.coms were not really needed in our society, just a convenient change.  Harvesting renewable energy is essential to the survival of the human species, and if we don't grow the industry, we will be thrown back to the pre-industrial age as our supply of fossil fuel declines.  I don't think the author of the "bubble" article included that in his hypothesis.

                                                -Chris

                                                 

                                                 

                                                 


                                                Stay informed, get connected and more with AOL on your phone.

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                                              • Robert Johnston
                                                Since we ve been on the topic of renewable and investment, HREG members may find the following interesting. It sounds like lack of congressional action may
                                                Message 23 of 23 , Jun 13, 2008
                                                • 0 Attachment

                                                   Since we’ve been on the topic of renewable and investment, HREG members may find the following interesting.  It sounds like lack of congressional action may have a significant impact on renewables.

                                                   

                                                  Robert

                                                   

                                                   

                                                   

                                                   

                                                  The Daily Reckoning PRESENTS: There is no geothermal fairy waving a magic wand and ZAP, you have electrons in the grid. From exploration to drilling to development to spinning turbines, you have to know what you are doing in the geothermal field. Byron King explains...

                                                  “WE NEED TO TALK”
                                                  by Byron King

                                                  There is a looming problem for the renewable energy business. It affects the geothermal producers. As the expression goes, “We need to talk.”

                                                  I have argued over and over that in an energy-short future, geothermal power will play a key role in meeting power needs. Geothermal systems are well-known technology, at least to people who follow the technology. And some geothermal fields have been making power for many decades. So there’s a real track record for geothermal, unlike for many other alleged technological “solutions” to the energy problems of our time.

                                                  Geothermal offers some unique benefits. It is “clean,” emitting essentially no carbon dioxide (CO2). Plus, geothermal comes with its own fuel supply, namely the heat of the Earth. That is, once you drill the wells, you don’t have to buy coal or oil or natural gas over the decades of operation. In essence, when you set up a geothermal power system, you are “buying” not just the installation, but also the fuel upfront.

                                                  Keep that last point in mind. Geothermal has higher upfront capital costs. But it has far lower operational costs over the life of the project. It’s like buying a car and never having to buy any more gasoline.

                                                  So geothermal works. But like most good things in life, it requires a specific skill set up and down the industrial ladder.

                                                  And there is no geothermal fairy waving a magic wand and ZAP, you have electrons in the grid. From exploration to drilling to development to spinning turbines, you have to know what you are doing in the geothermal field. This includes accounting for the costs of operation and production.

                                                  OK, here is the issue. Under current U.S. tax law, a power producer gets an income tax credit (called a “production tax credit,” or PTC) for producing electricity using renewable energy resources. This includes geothermal, as well as wind, biomass, low-head hydropower, landfill gas and even trash combustion.

                                                  The PTC is a key part of the economics of geothermal. The prospect of the eventual PTC helps get projects funded and developed. The PTC helps overcome the higher upfront capital costs to drill into the Earth’s hot spots.

                                                  So the PTC offers some serious incentive for geothermal development. A taxpayer can claim the PTC for 10 years, beginning on the date the qualified facility is placed in service. But under current tax law, in order to qualify for the credit, the geothermal facilities must be placed in service by Dec. 31, 2008.

                                                  In the past, Congress has set the PTC to last for two years, and has renewed it periodically. When Congress has not renewed the PRC, investment in renewable energy systems has crashed the next year. See how in this graph (Page 19 of 29).

                                                  Do you see the pattern? Boom-crash. Boom-crash. Boom-crash. Then Congress extended the PTC in 2006, so the installed base of power systems began to take off in the past couple years. Renewable power is gaining traction.

                                                  But for some strange reason, Congress has not extended the PTC beyond Dec. 31 of this year. So starting Jan. 1, 2009, the tax incentive for renewable energy in the U.S. will expire and go away. Poof. Gone. Adios.

                                                  Really, can you imagine anything more stupid than eliminating the PTC in the midst of the current round of skyrocketing energy costs? Oil hit $135 per barrel a couple weeks ago. Natural gas is in the midst of a stealth rally to over $12 per mcf. Coal is so expensive some producers are signing “open contracts,” meaning they promise to deliver, but won’t tell you the price until you take the coal in a couple years.

                                                  And while fossil fuel costs are shooting up, Congress, apparently, wants to put at risk any new investment in renewable energy systems after the end of this year.

                                                  Whoever is the next U.S. president – of either political party – do you want him immediately to confront a crash in investment in renewable power systems? What a way to tie the hands of the next president as he tackles the nation’s energy problems.

                                                  The good news is that the Senate has passed a bill called S. 2821, the bipartisan Cantwell-Ensign Clean Energy Tax Stimulus Act of 2008. S. 2821 has 43 co-sponsors. It provides for the limited continuation of the PTC for renewable energy. The Senate vote was 88-8 in favor.

                                                  There is a companion bill in the House, called H.R. 5984, with 70 co-sponsors. There is another version of this bill called H.R. 197, the “Pomeroy bill.” But both versions are being blocked by the “pay-as-you-go” (PAYGO) rule that prevents “tax cuts” without corresponding tax increases.

                                                  But wait a minute. Extending the PTC is not a “tax cut.” The PTC is already in effect. So extending it will just be continuing the status quo.

                                                  And does the government really think it will raise more revenue if the PTC goes away? C’mon. It’s more like how much revenue will the government LOSE if investment in renewable energy systems takes its characteristic plunge when the PTC goes away. How many jobs will go away? How much progress will we just toss?

                                                  The logic of PAYGO governance at work in Washington, D.C., has Congress believing that extending the PTC to promote renewable energy development – in the midst of soaring costs for fossil fuels – is something that the U.S. cannot afford to do. Actually, we cannot afford NOT to develop renewable energy systems.

                                                  This makes so little sense that we could all have a good chuckle if it were not such a serious issue of national energy policy. What does it take for Congress to figure this out? Do the lights really have to flicker and die before the issue gets some attention?

                                                  So I’m asking you to contact your member of Congress and confront him or her with this issue. The future of the renewable energy industry in the U.S. depends on this.

                                                  Action to take: Contact your representative and urge him or her to support H.R. 5984 or the alternative H.R. 197, called the “Pomeroy bill.”

                                                  Here is a link to find the contact information for your member of Congress.

                                                  Shoot me an e-mail (OI@... ) to let me know what you hear. Thanks for your help on this one.

                                                  You’ll be helping yourself, and helping the country,

                                                  Byron W. King
                                                  for The Daily Reckoning

                                                  Editor’s Note: Byron King currently serves as an attorney in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. He received his Juris Doctor from the University of Pittsburgh School of Law in 1981 and is a cum laude graduate of Harvard University. Byron is also co-editor of Outstanding Investments , and editor of Energy & Scarcity Investor .

                                                   

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