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Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future

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  • Jonathan Clemens
    HREG, I was fortunate to have been given the following article, which has a link to an interesting and comprehensive study as to our energy future. As RE
    Message 1 of 1 , Nov 21, 2000
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      HREG,

      I was fortunate to have been given the following article, which has a link
      to an interesting and comprehensive study as to our energy future. As RE
      enthusiasts we are all interested in global warming and the need for
      emissions reductions worldwide. I have download various portions of the
      report, prepared by an Interlaboratory Working Group from the Oak Ridge
      National Laboratory and others, for the Department of Energy. I recommend
      first reading the 10 page Executive Summary.

      Jonathan
      ----- Original Message -----
      From: "Ned Ford" <Ned.Ford@...>
      To: <CONS-SPST-ENERGY-FORUM@...>
      Sent: Tuesday, November 21, 2000 12:00 PM
      Subject: Time for Giving Thanks.


      > Holiday Greetings to everyone who works to make the world a sustainable
      > place.
      >
      > The message below was distributed on 11/15 to the eadvocate-l list. I
      > want to call attention to this very important and extensive report. It
      > is over 5mb in PDF format, and worth downloading and reading all of it.
      >
      > THIS REPORT DESCRIBES THE ONLY METHODOLOGY THAT WILL PERMIT THE UNITED
      > STATES TO ACHIEVE A NET REDUCTION IN GREENHOUSE GASSES IN THE NEXT
      > FIFTEEN YEARS OR SO!!!
      >
      > The Report isn't the only way to identify the efficiency resources, and
      > it is a bare-bones description of the potential, and some of the issues
      > involved in acquiring the efficiency resource. BUT IT IS A
      > COMPREHENSIVE DOE REPORT WITH AS MUCH SUPPORT AND DETAIL AS ANY OTHER
      > SOURCE. WE SHOULD USE THIS AS A STARTING POINT TO COMMUNICATE WITH
      > ELECTED OFFICIALS AND ANYONE ELSE THAT MATTERS, IN CHANGING THE FOCUS OF
      > THE GLOBAL WARMING DIALOGUE FROM HANDWRINGING AND BALONEY, TO MEANINGFUL
      > ACTION THAT SAVES MONEY.
      >
      > I have spent most of my free time in the last couple of years trying to
      > identify practical avenues to a net CO2 reduction for the U.S., and am
      > firmly convinced that there isn't enough natural gas, and renewable
      > energy cannot grow fast enough to make a net reduction possible any
      > sooner than fifteen or twenty years from now. We've spent some time
      > debating this, and can do so in the future. But this is a tremendously
      > important opportunity.
      >
      > My understanding is that this is the report that Marilyn Brown presented
      > at The Hague in the COP6 global warming conference. Whether or not that
      > is the case, we are not likely to have another opportunity to focus the
      > U.S. debate so clearly, for months or years.
      >
      > Please give your thanks for the opportunities we have this year, to
      > taking an extra careful look at this report, and joining me in thinking
      > of strategic opportunities for its use.
      >
      > - Ned
      >
      > Ned Ford, Chair, Energy Technical Advisory Committee, Sierra Club
      >
      >
      >
      > EconSkip@... wrote:
      > >
      > > Report outlines promising opportunities for addressing climate change
      > >
      > > Note: The report is posted on the World Wide Web at
      > > http://www.ornl.gov/ORNL/Energy_Eff/CEF.htm)
      > >
      > > Summary: The most advanced scenario finds that by the year 2010, the
      United
      > > States could bring its carbon dioxide emissions three-quarters of the
      way
      > > back to 1990 levels, likely at a net economic benefit. To meet the U.S.
      > > Kyoto Protocol goal of reducing greenhouse emissions to 7 percent below
      1990
      > > levels by 2010, additional measures would be needed. Extra steps could
      > > include international carbon trading, reductions in other greenhouse
      gases
      > > and/or stronger domestic policies.
      > >
      > > OAK RIDGE, Tenn., Nov. 15. 2000 - Researchers from five national
      laboratories
      > > have issued a major report that finds the United States can make
      impressive
      > > strides toward addressing climate change through smart policies and
      > > technologies.
      > >
      > > The report, "Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future," assesses technologies
      and
      > > policies to meet energy-related challenges facing the United States. It
      > > concludes that successful implementation of these technologies and
      policies
      > > could reduce greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution, oil dependence and
      > > economic inefficiencies. The report also concludes that the overall
      economic
      > > benefits of the policies and technologies that are modeled are
      comparable to
      > > their overall costs. The benefits derive from energy savings throughout
      the
      > > economy.
      > >
      > > "While previous studies have established the technical potential for
      > > significantly cutting greenhouse gases and enhancing energy security,
      this
      > > study shows the ability of policies to help realize this potential,"
      said
      > > Marilyn Brown, deputy director of Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Energy
      > > Efficiency and Renewable Energy program.
      > >
      > > Hundreds of technologies and 50 policies were analyzed. The most
      important
      > > policies in terms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions were found to
      include
      > > increased research and development, voluntary agreements to promote
      energy
      > > efficiency in vehicles, buildings and industrial processes, enhanced
      > > appliance efficiency standards, a domestic carbon cap and trading system
      and
      > > electric industry restructuring. Some of the policies analyzed are the
      > > policies of the current administration while others are not.
      > >
      > > Many energy-related challenges are addressed by this report. Global
      climate
      > > change threatens to impose significant long-term costs from increasing
      > > temperatures, rising sea levels and more extreme weather. Despite
      ongoing
      > > improvements in air quality, air pollution from burning hydrocarbons
      > > continues to cause high levels of respiratory illnesses, acid rain and
      > > photochemical smog. Electricity outages, power disturbances and price
      hikes
      > > could dampen U.S. productivity, especially in the rapidly growing
      digital
      > > economy.
      > >
      > > A scenario-based approach is used in the report to examine alternative
      public
      > > policies that address these problems. The scenarios were developed
      through
      > > discussions with representatives of business, universities, nonprofit
      > > organizations and government to provide a broad range of opinions. This
      > > range gives decision-makers and the public an opportunity to study the
      > > advantages and disadvantages of different policy choices. The report
      > > provides a better understanding of the advantages and disadvantages of
      > > different policy choices, but contains no policy recommendations.
      > >
      > > The most advanced scenario finds that by the year 2010, the United
      States
      > > could bring its carbon dioxide emissions three-quarters of the way back
      to
      > > 1990 levels. These reductions would come from every sector of the
      economy.
      > > To meet the U.S. Kyoto Protocol goal of reducing greenhouse emissions to
      7
      > > percent below 1990 levels by 2010, additional measures would be needed.
      > > Extra steps could include international carbon trading, reductions in
      other
      > > greenhouse gases and/or stronger domestic policies.
      > >
      > > The report also concludes that over time energy bill savings in these
      > > scenarios can pay for the investments needed to achieve the reported
      > > reductions in energy use and associated greenhouse gas emissions.
      However,
      > > the report also notes that there will be certain negative sectoral
      impacts.
      > >
      > > The report was commissioned by DOE's Office of Energy Efficiency and
      > > Renewable Energy.
      > >
      > > Participating in the report are researchers from Argonne National
      Laboratory,
      > > the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National
      > > Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Pacific Northwest National
      > > Laboratory.
      > >
      > > (Note: An EPA macroeconomic assessment of the Clean Energy Future
      analysis
      > > will be available for comment in the next month or so.)
      > >
      > > ********************************************************
      > > John A. "Skip" Laitner
      > > Senior Economist for Technology Policy
      > > EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs
      > >
      > > Mailing Address
      > > 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, MS-6201J
      > > Washington, DC 20460
      > > Office Location and Delivery Address
      > > 501 3rd Street NW, 4th Floor,
      > > Washington, DC 20001
      > > Telephone
      > > o: (202) 564-9833
      > > f: (202) 565-2147
      > > ********************************************************
      > >
      > > ___________________________________________________________
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