Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future
I was fortunate to have been given the following article, which has a link
to an interesting and comprehensive study as to our energy future. As RE
enthusiasts we are all interested in global warming and the need for
emissions reductions worldwide. I have download various portions of the
report, prepared by an Interlaboratory Working Group from the Oak Ridge
National Laboratory and others, for the Department of Energy. I recommend
first reading the 10 page Executive Summary.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Ned Ford" <Ned.Ford@...>
Sent: Tuesday, November 21, 2000 12:00 PM
Subject: Time for Giving Thanks.
> Holiday Greetings to everyone who works to make the world a sustainable
> The message below was distributed on 11/15 to the eadvocate-l list. I
> want to call attention to this very important and extensive report. It
> is over 5mb in PDF format, and worth downloading and reading all of it.
> THIS REPORT DESCRIBES THE ONLY METHODOLOGY THAT WILL PERMIT THE UNITED
> STATES TO ACHIEVE A NET REDUCTION IN GREENHOUSE GASSES IN THE NEXT
> FIFTEEN YEARS OR SO!!!
> The Report isn't the only way to identify the efficiency resources, and
> it is a bare-bones description of the potential, and some of the issues
> involved in acquiring the efficiency resource. BUT IT IS A
> COMPREHENSIVE DOE REPORT WITH AS MUCH SUPPORT AND DETAIL AS ANY OTHER
> SOURCE. WE SHOULD USE THIS AS A STARTING POINT TO COMMUNICATE WITH
> ELECTED OFFICIALS AND ANYONE ELSE THAT MATTERS, IN CHANGING THE FOCUS OF
> THE GLOBAL WARMING DIALOGUE FROM HANDWRINGING AND BALONEY, TO MEANINGFUL
> ACTION THAT SAVES MONEY.
> I have spent most of my free time in the last couple of years trying to
> identify practical avenues to a net CO2 reduction for the U.S., and am
> firmly convinced that there isn't enough natural gas, and renewable
> energy cannot grow fast enough to make a net reduction possible any
> sooner than fifteen or twenty years from now. We've spent some time
> debating this, and can do so in the future. But this is a tremendously
> important opportunity.
> My understanding is that this is the report that Marilyn Brown presented
> at The Hague in the COP6 global warming conference. Whether or not that
> is the case, we are not likely to have another opportunity to focus the
> U.S. debate so clearly, for months or years.
> Please give your thanks for the opportunities we have this year, to
> taking an extra careful look at this report, and joining me in thinking
> of strategic opportunities for its use.
> - Ned
> Ned Ford, Chair, Energy Technical Advisory Committee, Sierra Club
> EconSkip@... wrote:
> > Report outlines promising opportunities for addressing climate change
> > Note: The report is posted on the World Wide Web at
> > http://www.ornl.gov/ORNL/Energy_Eff/CEF.htm)
> > Summary: The most advanced scenario finds that by the year 2010, the
> > States could bring its carbon dioxide emissions three-quarters of the
> > back to 1990 levels, likely at a net economic benefit. To meet the U.S.
> > Kyoto Protocol goal of reducing greenhouse emissions to 7 percent below
> > levels by 2010, additional measures would be needed. Extra steps could
> > include international carbon trading, reductions in other greenhouse
> > and/or stronger domestic policies.
> > OAK RIDGE, Tenn., Nov. 15. 2000 - Researchers from five national
> > have issued a major report that finds the United States can make
> > strides toward addressing climate change through smart policies and
> > technologies.
> > The report, "Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future," assesses technologies
> > policies to meet energy-related challenges facing the United States. It
> > concludes that successful implementation of these technologies and
> > could reduce greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution, oil dependence and
> > economic inefficiencies. The report also concludes that the overall
> > benefits of the policies and technologies that are modeled are
> > their overall costs. The benefits derive from energy savings throughout
> > economy.
> > "While previous studies have established the technical potential for
> > significantly cutting greenhouse gases and enhancing energy security,
> > study shows the ability of policies to help realize this potential,"
> > Marilyn Brown, deputy director of Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Energy
> > Efficiency and Renewable Energy program.
> > Hundreds of technologies and 50 policies were analyzed. The most
> > policies in terms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions were found to
> > increased research and development, voluntary agreements to promote
> > efficiency in vehicles, buildings and industrial processes, enhanced
> > appliance efficiency standards, a domestic carbon cap and trading system
> > electric industry restructuring. Some of the policies analyzed are the
> > policies of the current administration while others are not.
> > Many energy-related challenges are addressed by this report. Global
> > change threatens to impose significant long-term costs from increasing
> > temperatures, rising sea levels and more extreme weather. Despite
> > improvements in air quality, air pollution from burning hydrocarbons
> > continues to cause high levels of respiratory illnesses, acid rain and
> > photochemical smog. Electricity outages, power disturbances and price
> > could dampen U.S. productivity, especially in the rapidly growing
> > economy.
> > A scenario-based approach is used in the report to examine alternative
> > policies that address these problems. The scenarios were developed
> > discussions with representatives of business, universities, nonprofit
> > organizations and government to provide a broad range of opinions. This
> > range gives decision-makers and the public an opportunity to study the
> > advantages and disadvantages of different policy choices. The report
> > provides a better understanding of the advantages and disadvantages of
> > different policy choices, but contains no policy recommendations.
> > The most advanced scenario finds that by the year 2010, the United
> > could bring its carbon dioxide emissions three-quarters of the way back
> > 1990 levels. These reductions would come from every sector of the
> > To meet the U.S. Kyoto Protocol goal of reducing greenhouse emissions to
> > percent below 1990 levels by 2010, additional measures would be needed.
> > Extra steps could include international carbon trading, reductions in
> > greenhouse gases and/or stronger domestic policies.
> > The report also concludes that over time energy bill savings in these
> > scenarios can pay for the investments needed to achieve the reported
> > reductions in energy use and associated greenhouse gas emissions.
> > the report also notes that there will be certain negative sectoral
> > The report was commissioned by DOE's Office of Energy Efficiency and
> > Renewable Energy.
> > Participating in the report are researchers from Argonne National
> > the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National
> > Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Pacific Northwest National
> > Laboratory.
> > (Note: An EPA macroeconomic assessment of the Clean Energy Future
> > will be available for comment in the next month or so.)
> > ********************************************************
> > John A. "Skip" Laitner
> > Senior Economist for Technology Policy
> > EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs
> > Mailing Address
> > 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, MS-6201J
> > Washington, DC 20460
> > Office Location and Delivery Address
> > 501 3rd Street NW, 4th Floor,
> > Washington, DC 20001
> > Telephone
> > o: (202) 564-9833
> > f: (202) 565-2147
> > ********************************************************
> > ___________________________________________________________
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