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Peak Oil

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  • jclem412@aol.com
    READING LIST Home Power Magazine. The International Academy of Science, 26900 Pink Hill Road, Independence, MO. 64057 has the papers: Oxides of Nitrogen
    Message 1 of 9 , Apr 13, 2005
      READING LIST
      Home Power Magazine. 
       
      The International Academy of Science, 26900 Pink Hill Road, Independence, MO. 64057 has the papers: "Oxides of Nitrogen Control for Appliance Conversion to Hydrogen Fuel", "Hydrogen Homestead", "Fuel from Water", and "The Hydrogen World View". 
       
      "The Party's Over" by Kjell Aleklett, of Sweden.
       
      "The Greening of Cuba" = recommended video
       
      (from Diane Clemens)
       
      <http://www.economist.com/background/displayBackground.cfm?story_id=3831358>


      A titanic struggle between supply and demand

      Apr 6th 2005
      From The Economist Global Agenda

      Oil hit another new high this week and OPEC promised to raise its production
      by another 500,000 barrels per day to help ease the pain. But with capacity
      tight and demand continuing to grow, high oil prices may be here to stay

      TALK about record oil prices is beginning to get a bit tedious; oil seems to
      be hitting new highs with the regularity of a metronome. This is, naturally,
      more than a bit tedious for consumers, who are having to dig ever more
      deeply into their pockets. More frightening still, it might get worse before
      it gets better. Last week, Goldman Sachs released a report predicting that
      oil prices may stay above $50 per barrel for several years. Oil prices
      obliged by jumping. On Monday April 4th, light crude hit $58 for the first
      time ever. On Tuesday and Wednesday morning, the price fell back by a couple
      of dollars in response to forecasts of growing crude-oil stocks in America.
      The market may also have been somewhat reassured by comments on Tuesday from
      Alan Greenspan, most notably that a big enough increase in crude inventories
      would “damp the current price frenzy”. But the Federal Reserve chairman also
      expressed concern that the world did not have enough oil-refining capacity.

      OPEC responded to the latest oil-price record by promising to open the taps.
      The oil cartel’s acting secretary-general, Adnan Shihab-Eldin, said on
      Monday that it was ready to produce another 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) if
      prices stay high. But according to experts, the market is so tight that this
      may be of little help. Oil prices, remember, barely paused for breath
      following OPEC’s last production hike, of 500,000 bpd, on March 16th.

      Only six years ago, many, including The Economist, were predicting that oil
      would stay at a lowly $10 or so per barrel for the foreseeable future.
      Nonetheless, as the authors of the Goldman Sachs report point out, the laws
      of supply and demand are catching up with an oil-hungry world. There is
      barely any excess capacity in the oil industry, which makes it hard for the
      market to meet new demand. Russia, the producer to whom markets have been
      looking for salvation, has seen its rapid production growth level off in
      recent months, and the other non-OPEC nations are thought to be producing
      about as much as they can. Meanwhile, even OPEC has little margin to spare:
      by one estimate, the cartel can pump only another 1.5m bpd—a small fraction
      of its members’ current quotas of 27.5m bpd—before it smacks up against its
      production ceiling. With the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting
      oil demand to grow by 1.81m bpd in 2005, supply and demand would seem to be
      heading for a showdown.

      The analysts at Goldman Sachs think the only thing that can restore
      equilibrium in the market is a sustained period of high prices that forces a
      cutback in consumption. This would give producers time to build more
      capacity, which could sate demand and cushion supply shocks, such as the
      Iraq war. Part of the reason that prices are so high is that today’s tight
      margins mean that a natural disaster or political unrest can leave the world
      without enough oil to go round. With big producers like Nigeria, Venezuela
      and Iraq looking unstable, people selling contracts to deliver oil in the
      future are demanding a hefty premium to cover the risk that the contract may
      mature in the middle of a shortage.

      So far, however, that premium does not seem to be translating into lower
      consumer demand. When oil spiked in the 1970s and early 1980s, consumers
      responded by using a lot less of it. This time, however, they seem blithely
      unconcerned. Economies have become a lot more fuel-efficient over the past
      20 years; as a result, spending on petroleum products is a smaller
      percentage of income. Governments have also begun taxing fuel more heavily,
      so that the price of crude makes up a much smaller fraction of the price
      consumers pay at the pump. And in Asia, where a lot of the demand growth is
      coming from, fuel prices are generally controlled by the state, so consumers
      aren’t feeling the pinch as much as they should. In 2004, international
      energy prices went up by 40%, but in oil-guzzling China they rose by only
      half that.

      For all of these reasons, the Goldman analysts reckon that prices need to
      go—and stay—higher still before demand begins to weaken. In real
      (inflation-adjusted) terms, oil reached its all-time high in 1980, of around
      $90 a barrel (see chart). Back then, OPEC saw revenues plummet as consumers
      cut back sharply. This time around, Goldman thinks that it might take prices
      of more than $100 per barrel to make consumers retrench.


      Demand-side economics

      These sorts of price levels are a big problem for oil-importing nations,
      particularly if they are sustained. Long bouts with high energy prices bring
      on stagflation, the combination of high inflation and low growth that erodes
      incomes and undercuts economic stability. With that in mind, the IEA has
      issued a draft report on how countries can build emergency programmes to
      deal with high oil prices.

      Some of the report’s ideas are worn-out. It proposes a rapid expansion of
      car-pool lanes, for instance, despite these having failed to get people
      sharing vehicles in America. However, in an interview with the Financial
      Times, Claude Mandil, the IEA’s executive director, suggested something that
      could make a difference: ending fuel subsidies. Asia is forecast to generate
      40% of the global increase in oil demand in 2005; letting the market's price
      signals get through to consumers would help demand align with supply before
      a crisis develops.

      Over the longer term, global capacity will need to expand. High prices
      should eventually attract companies looking for new oilfields to exploit. As
      oil majors such as Shell have been forced to restate downwards their
      estimated reserves of unpumped oil, the pressure to find new fields has
      grown further. This week, ChevronTexaco announced that it was buying Unocal
      for $16.4 billion, a move heralded largely for beefing up the American oil
      giant’s exploration and development business.

      But new capacity takes years to come onstream; in the meantime, the woes of
      the world’s oil consumers seem likely to grow. Surging oil prices could
      stall the fragile recoveries of many industrial nations, particularly Japan,
      which is a heavy oil importer. Europe is somewhat more insulated by its high
      fuel taxes, and by the euro: since oil is priced in dollars, the dollar’s
      depreciation against the euro has mitigated the damage. But with German and
      French economic growth still weak, rising fuel prices might yet be the straw
      that breaks the camel’s back.

      Perhaps the biggest worry of all is America, which is highly exposed to the
      price of oil, because of its low taxes, and because oil is priced in its
      currency. America has led the way out of the global slowdown. If oil prices
      hit hard, might it lead the way back into the next one?
    • Lunce
      The End of Suburbia is a very compelling documentary. It was shown at the Peak Oil Mini Conference this past weekend. Perhaps we can include it in a HREG
      Message 2 of 9 , Jul 10, 2005
        "The End of Suburbia" is a very compelling documentary. It was shown at
        the Peak Oil Mini Conference this past weekend. Perhaps we can include
        it in a HREG event sometime in the near future. If you have not seen it
        yet, click here for clips of this documentary
        http://endofsuburbia.com/previews.htm

        Lunce
      • Nan Hildreth
        Great idea, Lunce. What about showing End of Suburbia at the Renewable Roundup in Fredericksburg? I have copies to preview. End of Suburbia will be shown
        Message 3 of 9 , Jul 11, 2005
          Great idea, Lunce.  What about showing End of Suburbia at the Renewable Roundup in Fredericksburg?  I have copies to preview.  

          End of Suburbia will be shown again in Houston on September 14, Wednesday, 7pm at the Museum of Fine Arts with a Q&A after by Matthew Simmons.   www.realfilms.org/upcomingfilms.html#sept

          Simmons is author of Twilight in the Desert which asserts that Saudi Arabian oil production may collapse soon due to overworking their aging fields and that Saudi reserves figures may be inflated.   Simmons is also CEO of the world's largest energy investment bank and a prominent Houston citizen.    He is interviewed in the film. 

          Nan Hildreth

          At 03:09 PM 7/10/2005, Lunce wrote:
          "The End of Suburbia" is a very compelling documentary.  It was shown at
          the Peak Oil Mini Conference this past weekend.  Perhaps we can include
          it in a HREG event sometime in the near future.  If you have not seen it
          yet, click here for clips of this documentary 
          http://endofsuburbia.com/previews.htm

          Lunce


           
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          Nan Hildreth, Houston
          713-842-6643   NanHildreth@...
          713-443-3104 cell
          3939 Luca St.
          Houston, Tx 77021


        • Lunce
          Thank you, Nan!
          Message 4 of 9 , Jul 11, 2005
            Thank you, Nan!



            Nan Hildreth wrote:

            > Great idea, Lunce. What about showing End of Suburbia at the
            > Renewable Roundup in Fredericksburg? I have copies to preview.
            >
            > End of Suburbia will be shown again in Houston on September 14,
            > Wednesday, 7pm at the Museum of Fine Arts with a Q&A after by Matthew
            > Simmons. www.realfilms.org/upcomingfilms.html#sept
            > <http://www.realfilms.org/upcomingfilms.html#sept>
            >
            > Simmons is author of Twilight in the Desert which asserts that Saudi
            > Arabian oil production may collapse soon due to overworking their
            > aging fields and that Saudi reserves figures may be inflated.
            > Simmons is also CEO of the world's largest energy investment bank and
            > a prominent Houston citizen. He is interviewed in the film.
            >
            > Nan Hildreth
            >
            > At 03:09 PM 7/10/2005, Lunce wrote:
            >
            >> "The End of Suburbia" is a very compelling documentary. It was shown at
            >> the Peak Oil Mini Conference this past weekend. Perhaps we can include
            >> it in a HREG event sometime in the near future. If you have not seen it
            >> yet, click here for clips of this documentary
            >> http://endofsuburbia.com/previews.htm
            >>
            >> Lunce
            >>
            >>
            >>
            >> Yahoo! Groups Links
            >>
            >>
            >>
            >>
            >
            >
            >
            > Nan Hildreth, Houston
            > 713-842-6643 NanHildreth@...
            > 713-443-3104 cell
            > 3939 Luca St.
            > Houston, Tx 77021
            >
            >
            >
            > ------------------------------------------------------------------------
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