Re: [hreg] Solar Cell Technology
- Rick,Electricity cost data came from EIA-DOE.Solar cell data came from a book "Wind and Solar Power Systems" by Mukund Patel (1999) with most recent cost data taken from solar cell distributor web sites.I do not have wind cost history yet. Wind price now is about $1000/kW, competitive with combustion plants. Wind price goal set forth by manufacturers is $500/kW by 2010 (I was told this by a wind manufacturer at a trade show).-ChrisFrom: JOHNSON, RICK NSent: Thursday, July 17, 2003 7:41 AMSubject: RE: [hreg] Solar Cell TechnologyChris,
Can you share the source of your data? Also, do you have similar price curves for other RE
From: Roxanne Boyer [mailto:rox1@...]
Sent: Wednesday, July 16, 2003 9:58 PM
Subject: [hreg] Solar Cell Technology
There may be hope for a breakthrough in solar cell technology in the near future. Significant
breakthroughs have occured in thermoelectric and photoelectric technology in the last five years,
i.e. LED lights (now seen at every new stoplight, flashlights and car beams coming soon), digital
cameras (the first consumer camera came out in 1996), peltier coolers, etc. Since these
technologies are the ciblings of solar cell technology (P/N photon activated voltaic juctions), it
makes sense that we should see similar breakthroughs soon. Hopefully...
Also, if you trend the rising cost of retail electricity in Texas ($/kWh) and the falling cost of
retail solar cells (discounted 7% over 20 yrs), you see a crossing at about the year 2010. Also, if
you use a typical market penetration curve with existing solar data, you see the sharp rise in solar
usage about the year 2020. This is all consistant with the time frame for rising oil and gas costs.
It looks like RE will be ripe for the picking not more than 20 years away. It may seem like a long
time to some, but when you think of all that has to happen for the change, 20 years is not far away.
I attached some graphs for those who have PowerPoint.
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