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Re: [hreg] Solar Cell Technology

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  • Roxanne Boyer
    Rick, Electricity cost data came from EIA-DOE. Solar cell data came from a book Wind and Solar Power Systems by Mukund Patel (1999) with most recent cost
    Message 1 of 12 , Jul 18, 2003
      Electricity cost data came from EIA-DOE.
      Solar cell data came from a book "Wind and Solar Power Systems" by Mukund Patel (1999) with most recent cost data taken from solar cell distributor web sites.
      I do not have wind cost history yet.  Wind price now is about $1000/kW, competitive with combustion plants.  Wind price goal set forth by manufacturers is $500/kW by 2010 (I was told this by a wind manufacturer at a trade show).
      Sent: Thursday, July 17, 2003 7:41 AM
      Subject: RE: [hreg] Solar Cell Technology


      Can you share the source of your data?  Also, do you have similar price curves for other RE


      -----Original Message-----
      From: Roxanne Boyer [mailto:rox1@...]
      Sent: Wednesday, July 16, 2003 9:58 PM
      To: hreg@yahoogroups.com
      Subject: [hreg] Solar Cell Technology

      There may be hope for a breakthrough in solar cell technology in the near future.  Significant
      breakthroughs have occured in thermoelectric and photoelectric technology in the last five years,
      i.e. LED lights (now seen at every new stoplight, flashlights and car beams coming soon), digital
      cameras (the first consumer camera came out in 1996), peltier coolers, etc.  Since these
      technologies are the ciblings of solar cell technology (P/N photon activated voltaic juctions), it
      makes sense that we should see similar breakthroughs soon.  Hopefully...

      Also, if you trend the rising cost of retail electricity in Texas ($/kWh) and the falling cost of
      retail solar cells (discounted 7% over 20 yrs), you see a crossing at about the year 2010.  Also, if
      you use a typical market penetration curve with existing solar data, you see the sharp rise in solar
      usage about the year 2020.  This is all consistant with the time frame for rising oil and gas costs.
      It looks like RE will be ripe for the picking not more than 20 years away.  It may seem like a long
      time to some, but when you think of all that has to happen for the change, 20 years is not far away.

      I attached some graphs for those who have PowerPoint.


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