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9020Re: Capital Investment Needed per MW for Solar, Wind, Coal Fired,

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  • jay.ring@ymail.com
    Jun 30, 2009
      Paul,

      Well I can't say it is perfect, but the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) has a good starting point for CSP:
      http://www.nrel.gov/csp/

      Look for "ASSESSMENT OF PARABOLIC TROUGH AND POWER TOWER SOLAR TECHNOLOGY COST AND PERFORMANCE FORECASTS". It has some estimates from the manufacturer which are slightly biased but generally supported. I haven't done detailed analysis so I can't vouch for the methodology, but it seems pretty good.

      In particular check out page 126, where some key findings on operations and maintenance are summarized.

      Here is a direct link to the report:
      http://www.nrel.gov/csp/pdfs/34440.pdf

      They estimate $27 per megawatt-hour now, $6 "very soon", and about $3 when it is fully mature. Remember that leaves out transmission, construction, and some other important details.

      They also have numbers for levelized costs (LEC) on page 127 (table 5-20). Near term it is about $120, long term about $40 ( per megawatt). These numbers are NPV numbers and include capital, fuel, and so forth. For comparison, coal is about $40.

      My opinion is that this is very optimistic, but worth of further study and development. There are lots of variations in numbers from different sources, they vary somewhat by study. Predicting the future is impossible, so take everything with a grain of salt.

      Good luck in whatever mischief you are up to :)

      - Jay



      --- In hreg@yahoogroups.com, "Paul Cobb" <luapbboc@...> wrote:
      >
      > Cost of Development per MW -- I was wondering if anyone has a good study or reference that shows the avg. cost of developing electricity (new project) for coal, natgas, wind, solar (csp, non pv), etc.
      > I have seen studies showing the average cost of producing power via coal, wind, natural gas generated, etc. There's a ppt. on the HREG site saying that it costs $1M per MW for wind and solar. I'm not sure of the source or if that still is accurate, etc.
      >
      > I would like to see what studies are recommended that show the cost (per MW) of new projects. I haven't been able to locate anything decent, esp in reference to CSP costs/MW, that compares apples to apples.
      >
      > Thanks in advance,
      > Paul Cobb
      >
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