Loading ...
Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.

Expand Messages
  • Charles Thorn
    Andrew, Snow pack in the San Juans is slightly below normal. The climate models show higher than normal precipitation, as well as much warmer than normal
    Message 1 of 7 , Apr 22, 2014
    • 0 Attachment
      Andrew,

      Snow pack in the San Juans is slightly below normal.  The climate models show higher than normal precipitation, as well as much warmer than normal temperatures predicted between now and Hardrock.  More rain and higher temperatures usually mean less snow. 

      I don't know what the course will be like but, I'd guess that we're going to have relatively less snow on the course than in the past few years. 

      That's just a guess. The fun will be in actually finding out.

      Charlie



      ======================

      Mon Apr 21, 2014 4:10 pm (PDT) . Posted by:

      "Andrew Barney" w7ie

      How does this snowpack compare now to past years? Is this going to be
      more like 2011 or 2013 this year?

      -- Andrew
    • Lois MacKenzie
      It has rained off and on in Silverton today and the snow is melting fast!   Keep in Touch, LMac On Tuesday, April 22, 2014 11:03 AM, Charles Thorn
      Message 2 of 7 , Apr 22, 2014
      • 0 Attachment
        It has rained off and on in Silverton today and the snow is melting fast!
         
        Keep in Touch,
        LMac
        On Tuesday, April 22, 2014 11:03 AM, Charles Thorn <thorncha@...> wrote:
         
        Andrew,

        Snow pack in the San Juans is slightly below normal.  The climate models show higher than normal precipitation, as well as much warmer than normal temperatures predicted between now and Hardrock.  More rain and higher temperatures usually mean less snow. 

        I don't know what the course will be like but, I'd guess that we're going to have relatively less snow on the course than in the past few years. 

        That's just a guess. The fun will be in actually finding out.

        Charlie



        ======================

        Mon Apr 21, 2014 4:10 pm (PDT) . Posted by:

        "Andrew Barney" w7ie

        How does this snowpack compare now to past years? Is this going to be
        more like 2011 or 2013 this year?

        -- Andrew


      • Basit Mustafa
        I can only really speak to conditions around Telluride, but the portions of trail under timberline are well protected and remain under quite a bit of snow.
        Message 3 of 7 , Apr 22, 2014
        • 0 Attachment
          I can only really speak to conditions around Telluride, but the portions of trail under timberline are well protected and remain under quite a bit of snow. I've been on the portions around Telluride and save for the lowest parts, it's still quite skiable. 

          Average depth is 1-1.5 up until about 9200ft or in drifts and then it's not unusual to see 1.5-3 ft.

          Virginius into Tride and up to the Wasatch trail is essentially unrunnable (to be expected) anywhere except the Weibe intersection thru to the bear creek drainage just a bit out of town, maybe 3/4 of a mi. Which I will qualify and say the pack from here up to the wasatch trail is definitely runnable now ESP in early am hours (up mendota and up to Virginius the pack is a shit show - it's considerable and consistent - floatation required beyond even the lowest encounter with snow at the Weibe intersection).

          The snow IS melting but there's a lotta moisture around tride, not as much as in previous years, of course, Charlie is right and the data is right in that sense, but there's still a LOT of moisture waiting to melt and keep these trails unrunnable for sometime - but, for race time, as far as I can tell, the trails I've been on will be absolutely clear and dry of any run off for a large part (won't venture to predict the rain, though! :) ).

          I'll be out to other parts of the course in the coming weeks and month and will update my map I sent out earlier today. 

          Hope this helps. 

          All spulling and grammer misteaks are Apple's fault.


          On Tue, Apr 22, 2014 at 11:03 AM, Charles Thorn <thorncha@...> wrote:

           

          Andrew,

          Snow pack in the San Juans is slightly below normal.  The climate models show higher than normal precipitation, as well as much warmer than normal temperatures predicted between now and Hardrock.  More rain and higher temperatures usually mean less snow. 

          I don't know what the course will be like but, I'd guess that we're going to have relatively less snow on the course than in the past few years. 

          That's just a guess. The fun will be in actually finding out.

          Charlie



          ======================

          Mon Apr 21, 2014 4:10 pm (PDT) . Posted by:

          "Andrew Barney" w7ie

          How does this snowpack compare now to past years? Is this going to be
          more like 2011 or 2013 this year?

          -- Andrew

        • Jeff List
          The Red Mountain Pass Snotel graph also shows that the melting has started:
          Message 4 of 7 , Apr 23, 2014
          • 0 Attachment
            The Red Mountain Pass Snotel graph also shows that the melting has started:
            http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/nwcc/view?intervalType=+View+Current+&report=WYGRAPH&timeseries=Daily&format=plot&sitenum=713&interval=WATERYEAR
             


            On Tuesday, April 22, 2014 9:11 PM, Basit Mustafa <basit.mustafa@...> wrote:
            I can only really speak to conditions around Telluride, but the portions of trail under timberline are well protected and remain under quite a bit of snow. I've been on the portions around Telluride and save for the lowest parts, it's still quite skiable. 

            Average depth is 1-1.5 up until about 9200ft or in drifts and then it's not unusual to see 1.5-3 ft.

            Virginius into Tride and up to the Wasatch trail is essentially unrunnable (to be expected) anywhere except the Weibe intersection thru to the bear creek drainage just a bit out of town, maybe 3/4 of a mi. Which I will qualify and say the pack from here up to the wasatch trail is definitely runnable now ESP in early am hours (up mendota and up to Virginius the pack is a shit show - it's considerable and consistent - floatation required beyond even the lowest encounter with snow at the Weibe intersection).

            The snow IS melting but there's a lotta moisture around tride, not as much as in previous years, of course, Charlie is right and the data is right in that sense, but there's still a LOT of moisture waiting to melt and keep these trails unrunnable for sometime - but, for race time, as far as I can tell, the trails I've been on will be absolutely clear and dry of any run off for a large part (won't venture to predict the rain, though! :) ).

            I'll be out to other parts of the course in the coming weeks and month and will update my map I sent out earlier today. 

            Hope this helps. 

            All spulling and grammer misteaks are Apple's fault.


            On Tue, Apr 22, 2014 at 11:03 AM, Charles Thorn <thorncha@...> wrote:
             
            Andrew,

            Snow pack in the San Juans is slightly below normal.  The climate models show higher than normal precipitation, as well as much warmer than normal temperatures predicted between now and Hardrock.  More rain and higher temperatures usually mean less snow. 

            I don't know what the course will be like but, I'd guess that we're going to have relatively less snow on the course than in the past few years. 

            That's just a guess. The fun will be in actually finding out.

            Charlie



            ======================

            Mon Apr 21, 2014 4:10 pm (PDT) . Posted by:

            "Andrew Barney" w7ie

            How does this snowpack compare now to past years? Is this going to be
            more like 2011 or 2013 this year?

            -- Andrew



          • kaitainen
            I’d like to throw into the mix that in the last 5 or so years, snowfall and even snowpack doesn’t necessarily translate according to historical melt rates,
            Message 5 of 7 , May 7, 2014
            • 0 Attachment

              I’d like to throw into the mix that in the last 5 or so years, snowfall and even snowpack doesn’t necessarily translate according to historical melt rates, because of the coating of dust that is much more common on slopes in the last several years. Just saw this article today and its both fascinating and a bit troubling.

              http://www.lastwordonnothing.com/2014/05/07/what-dust-does/


              I’ve lived in NM for 17 years and remember a few dust storms until this year, when last month we had 5 days of them. I kind of figured general aridification from warmer temps was part of it, but didn’t think much about road building for mines and logging and houses, and ATV use. I think like a lot of people that I just assumed the West had already had all the dirt roads it was going to have, decades ago. I guess not.


              Andrea

            • Basit Mustafa
              That is a very good point & good link, Andrea. The SNOTEL numbers are just one thing in measuring pack, and, then, somehow extrapolate trails conditions from
              Message 6 of 7 , May 7, 2014
              • 0 Attachment
                That is a very good point & good link, Andrea. The SNOTEL numbers are just one thing in measuring pack, and, then, somehow extrapolate trails conditions from that. 

                Having spent nearly the last three months sloughing through the trails in the area, the SNOTEL data says one thing about "melt" but the reality (and massive variance against that data) is that when a trail is even 30 ft off a snotel site the pack is totally different in shading, how well packed (and thus how it melts) the pack on the trail is, how protected (or not) it is from wind loading, accumulation, sun, etc. 

                Anyway, nothing Hardrockers don't know, but I was out on Bear Creek just this AM and it's a total shitshow slough all the way up to Wasatch at which point I went back for flotation. No doubt in my mind it'll be clear and probably dry of run-off for race day, but anyone thinking about coming here to train should know mud season has started down low, hasn't even peaked yet, and isn't even started anywhere above about 10k. 

                I am writing this sitting at the Bean in Tride watching it snow as temps drop to below freezing for overnight temps to ensure no melting in the next 24-36 hrs, soooo, take that with the SNOTEL data for what it's worth :). 




                On Wed, May 7, 2014 at 9:13 AM, <andrea@...> wrote:
                 

                I’d like to throw into the mix that in the last 5 or so years, snowfall and even snowpack doesn’t necessarily translate according to historical melt rates, because of the coating of dust that is much more common on slopes in the last several years. Just saw this article today and its both fascinating and a bit troubling.

                http://www.lastwordonnothing.com/2014/05/07/what-dust-does/


                I’ve lived in NM for 17 years and remember a few dust storms until this year, when last month we had 5 days of them. I kind of figured general aridification from warmer temps was part of it, but didn’t think much about road building for mines and logging and houses, and ATV use. I think like a lot of people that I just assumed the West had already had all the dirt roads it was going to have, decades ago. I guess not.


                Andrea


              • Jean-Jacques d
                Wonderful article, Andrea, thanks for sharing! ~J-J On Wednesday, May 7, 2014 4:08 PM, Basit Mustafa wrote:   That is a very good
                Message 7 of 7 , May 7, 2014
                • 0 Attachment
                  Wonderful article, Andrea, thanks for sharing!
                  ~J-J
                  On Wednesday, May 7, 2014 4:08 PM, Basit Mustafa <basit.mustafa@...> wrote:
                   
                  That is a very good point & good link, Andrea. The SNOTEL numbers are just one thing in measuring pack, and, then, somehow extrapolate trails conditions from that. 

                  Having spent nearly the last three months sloughing through the trails in the area, the SNOTEL data says one thing about "melt" but the reality (and massive variance against that data) is that when a trail is even 30 ft off a snotel site the pack is totally different in shading, how well packed (and thus how it melts) the pack on the trail is, how protected (or not) it is from wind loading, accumulation, sun, etc. 

                  Anyway, nothing Hardrockers don't know, but I was out on Bear Creek just this AM and it's a total shitshow slough all the way up to Wasatch at which point I went back for flotation. No doubt in my mind it'll be clear and probably dry of run-off for race day, but anyone thinking about coming here to train should know mud season has started down low, hasn't even peaked yet, and isn't even started anywhere above about 10k. 

                  I am writing this sitting at the Bean in Tride watching it snow as temps drop to below freezing for overnight temps to ensure no melting in the next 24-36 hrs, soooo, take that with the SNOTEL data for what it's worth :). 




                  On Wed, May 7, 2014 at 9:13 AM, <andrea@...> wrote:
                   
                  I’d like to throw into the mix that in the last 5 or so years, snowfall and even snowpack doesn’t necessarily translate according to historical melt rates, because of the coating of dust that is much more common on slopes in the last several years. Just saw this article today and its both fascinating and a bit troubling.

                  I’ve lived in NM for 17 years and remember a few dust storms until this year, when last month we had 5 days of them. I kind of figured general aridification from warmer temps was part of it, but didn’t think much about road building for mines and logging and houses, and ATV use. I think like a lot of people that I just assumed the West had already had all the dirt roads it was going to have, decades ago. I guess not.

                  Andrea



                Your message has been successfully submitted and would be delivered to recipients shortly.