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Re: [hr100] Length of Hardrock Wait List and how many might get in from it

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  • Twiggsc@aol.com
    Blake, The entire population of the US is already waiting to do Hardrock; they just don t realize it yet. My favorite line about HR100 comes from you:
    Message 1 of 5 , Feb 7, 2011
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      Blake,
      The entire population of the US is already waiting to do Hardrock; they just don't realize it yet.

      My favorite line about HR100 comes from you: (paraphrased) How could this not be normal - all my friends are doing it!

      I really look forward to seeing all my friends again in Silverton!

      Chris
      Forced to run on the beach because the only mountains in Florida are at Disney (Space Mountain, Thunder Mountain, Splash Mountain)



      -----Original Message-----
      From: Blake P. Wood <bwood@...>
      To: ultra@...; hr100@yahoogroups.com
      Sent: Mon, Feb 7, 2011 1:21 pm
      Subject: [hr100] Length of Hardrock Wait List and how many might get in from it





      Every year following the Hardrock Lottery, we get many questions about how many can expect to get in off the wait list.

      Here is the historical data for how many were on the wait list initially, and the initial wait list number of the last person to get into the run:

      2003: 75, 75
      2004: 74, 50
      2005: 99, 28
      2006: 130, 42
      2007: 149, 38
      2008: 214, 99
      2009: 206, 27
      2010: 289, 28
      2011: 445, ??

      I calculate that at this rate of exponential growth, by the year 2075 the entire population of the U.S. will be on the Hardrock wait list.

      - Blake









      [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
    • Andy Hewat
      Well the entry rate from Oz has grown exponentially as well (7 in the lottery this year) so you might need to add a few to your projected growth figures Blake.
      Message 2 of 5 , Feb 7, 2011
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        Well the entry rate from Oz has grown exponentially as well (7 in the lottery this year) so you might need to add a few to your projected growth figures Blake. But, um, err, seems only one aussie can get in with any regularity so he better carry that flag all the way to the rock again!
        See you all in July again.Andy 

        --- On Tue, 8/2/11, Twiggsc@... <Twiggsc@...> wrote:

        From: Twiggsc@... <Twiggsc@...>
        Subject: Re: [hr100] Length of Hardrock Wait List and how many might get in from it
        To: hr100@yahoogroups.com
        Received: Tuesday, 8 February, 2011, 7:16 AM
















         









        Blake,

        The entire population of the US is already waiting to do Hardrock; they just don't realize it yet.



        My favorite line about HR100 comes from you: (paraphrased) How could this not be normal - all my friends are doing it!



        I really look forward to seeing all my friends again in Silverton!



        Chris

        Forced to run on the beach because the only mountains in Florida are at Disney (Space Mountain, Thunder Mountain, Splash Mountain)



        -----Original Message-----

        From: Blake P. Wood <bwood@...>

        To: ultra@...; hr100@yahoogroups.com

        Sent: Mon, Feb 7, 2011 1:21 pm

        Subject: [hr100] Length of Hardrock Wait List and how many might get in from it



        Every year following the Hardrock Lottery, we get many questions about how many can expect to get in off the wait list.



        Here is the historical data for how many were on the wait list initially, and the initial wait list number of the last person to get into the run:



        2003: 75, 75

        2004: 74, 50

        2005: 99, 28

        2006: 130, 42

        2007: 149, 38

        2008: 214, 99

        2009: 206, 27

        2010: 289, 28

        2011: 445, ??



        I calculate that at this rate of exponential growth, by the year 2075 the entire population of the U.S. will be on the Hardrock wait list.



        - Blake



        [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]






























        [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
      • Stevan Pattillo
        Blake, having made that projection, how many will then get in off the wait list? It looks like fractions of a single runner will make it in. Homeopathic
        Message 3 of 5 , Feb 8, 2011
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          Blake, having made that projection, how many will then get in off the
          wait list? It looks like fractions of a single runner will make it
          in. Homeopathic runners? The less there is the greater the effect?
          Higher finishing place for the lesser part of a runner?
          Steve-o




          Stevan Pattillo
          Research Technician
          MST-7
          Los Alamos National Laboratory
          505-665-7423

          Mater tua criceta fuit, et pater tuo redoluit bacarum sambucus -

          [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
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