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Length of Hardrock Wait List and how many might get in from it

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  • Blake P. Wood
    Every year following the Hardrock Lottery, we get many questions about how many can expect to get in off the wait list. Here is the historical data for how
    Message 1 of 5 , Feb 7, 2011
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      Every year following the Hardrock Lottery, we get many questions about how many can expect to get in off the wait list.

      Here is the historical data for how many were on the wait list initially, and the initial wait list number of the last person to get into the run:

      2003: 75, 75
      2004: 74, 50
      2005: 99, 28
      2006: 130, 42
      2007: 149, 38
      2008: 214, 99
      2009: 206, 27
      2010: 289, 28
      2011: 445, ??

      I calculate that at this rate of exponential growth, by the year 2075 the entire population of the U.S. will be on the Hardrock wait list.


      - Blake
    • Bruce Grant
      Thanks for these and the pre-lottery numbers, Blake! They answered many questions. For anyone who wasn t there, note that 2008 was an anomaly year, with #99
      Message 2 of 5 , Feb 7, 2011
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        Thanks for these and the pre-lottery numbers, Blake! They answered many
        questions.

        For anyone who wasn't there, note that 2008 was an anomaly year, with #99
        getting in unexpectedly on race morning when a runner who checked-in on
        Thursday failed to appear on day-of-race morning (the runner was camping and
        his car got blocked in my someone else and he couldn't get out, so he showed
        up late...Dale, being the awesome guy he is, let the racer run anyways). The
        waitlist was in "normal" territory prior to that, although I don't know the
        exact number it stood at.

        Regardless, it goes to show that no matter where you are on the waitlist,
        sometimes it is worth being in Silverton with your shoes on race morning,
        because you never know what may happen. Maybe your husband will give up his
        spot to let you run instead.... ;-)

        Congrats to everyone who got in, or will get in.
        Many thanks to the Board for conducting the lottery with such clearly
        defined rules, and sticking by them.
        The tweets were great to see the results almost real-time, Andrea!

        Bruce


        On 7 February 2011 10:21, Blake P. Wood <bwood@...> wrote:

        >
        >
        > Every year following the Hardrock Lottery, we get many questions about how
        > many can expect to get in off the wait list.
        >
        > Here is the historical data for how many were on the wait list initially,
        > and the initial wait list number of the last person to get into the run:
        >
        > 2003: 75, 75
        > 2004: 74, 50
        > 2005: 99, 28
        > 2006: 130, 42
        > 2007: 149, 38
        > 2008: 214, 99
        > 2009: 206, 27
        > 2010: 289, 28
        > 2011: 445, ??
        >
        > I calculate that at this rate of exponential growth, by the year 2075 the
        > entire population of the U.S. will be on the Hardrock wait list.
        >
        > - Blake
        >
        >
        >


        [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
      • Twiggsc@aol.com
        Blake, The entire population of the US is already waiting to do Hardrock; they just don t realize it yet. My favorite line about HR100 comes from you:
        Message 3 of 5 , Feb 7, 2011
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          Blake,
          The entire population of the US is already waiting to do Hardrock; they just don't realize it yet.

          My favorite line about HR100 comes from you: (paraphrased) How could this not be normal - all my friends are doing it!

          I really look forward to seeing all my friends again in Silverton!

          Chris
          Forced to run on the beach because the only mountains in Florida are at Disney (Space Mountain, Thunder Mountain, Splash Mountain)



          -----Original Message-----
          From: Blake P. Wood <bwood@...>
          To: ultra@...; hr100@yahoogroups.com
          Sent: Mon, Feb 7, 2011 1:21 pm
          Subject: [hr100] Length of Hardrock Wait List and how many might get in from it





          Every year following the Hardrock Lottery, we get many questions about how many can expect to get in off the wait list.

          Here is the historical data for how many were on the wait list initially, and the initial wait list number of the last person to get into the run:

          2003: 75, 75
          2004: 74, 50
          2005: 99, 28
          2006: 130, 42
          2007: 149, 38
          2008: 214, 99
          2009: 206, 27
          2010: 289, 28
          2011: 445, ??

          I calculate that at this rate of exponential growth, by the year 2075 the entire population of the U.S. will be on the Hardrock wait list.

          - Blake









          [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
        • Andy Hewat
          Well the entry rate from Oz has grown exponentially as well (7 in the lottery this year) so you might need to add a few to your projected growth figures Blake.
          Message 4 of 5 , Feb 7, 2011
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            Well the entry rate from Oz has grown exponentially as well (7 in the lottery this year) so you might need to add a few to your projected growth figures Blake. But, um, err, seems only one aussie can get in with any regularity so he better carry that flag all the way to the rock again!
            See you all in July again.Andy 

            --- On Tue, 8/2/11, Twiggsc@... <Twiggsc@...> wrote:

            From: Twiggsc@... <Twiggsc@...>
            Subject: Re: [hr100] Length of Hardrock Wait List and how many might get in from it
            To: hr100@yahoogroups.com
            Received: Tuesday, 8 February, 2011, 7:16 AM
















             









            Blake,

            The entire population of the US is already waiting to do Hardrock; they just don't realize it yet.



            My favorite line about HR100 comes from you: (paraphrased) How could this not be normal - all my friends are doing it!



            I really look forward to seeing all my friends again in Silverton!



            Chris

            Forced to run on the beach because the only mountains in Florida are at Disney (Space Mountain, Thunder Mountain, Splash Mountain)



            -----Original Message-----

            From: Blake P. Wood <bwood@...>

            To: ultra@...; hr100@yahoogroups.com

            Sent: Mon, Feb 7, 2011 1:21 pm

            Subject: [hr100] Length of Hardrock Wait List and how many might get in from it



            Every year following the Hardrock Lottery, we get many questions about how many can expect to get in off the wait list.



            Here is the historical data for how many were on the wait list initially, and the initial wait list number of the last person to get into the run:



            2003: 75, 75

            2004: 74, 50

            2005: 99, 28

            2006: 130, 42

            2007: 149, 38

            2008: 214, 99

            2009: 206, 27

            2010: 289, 28

            2011: 445, ??



            I calculate that at this rate of exponential growth, by the year 2075 the entire population of the U.S. will be on the Hardrock wait list.



            - Blake



            [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]






























            [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
          • Stevan Pattillo
            Blake, having made that projection, how many will then get in off the wait list? It looks like fractions of a single runner will make it in. Homeopathic
            Message 5 of 5 , Feb 8, 2011
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              Blake, having made that projection, how many will then get in off the
              wait list? It looks like fractions of a single runner will make it
              in. Homeopathic runners? The less there is the greater the effect?
              Higher finishing place for the lesser part of a runner?
              Steve-o




              Stevan Pattillo
              Research Technician
              MST-7
              Los Alamos National Laboratory
              505-665-7423

              Mater tua criceta fuit, et pater tuo redoluit bacarum sambucus -

              [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
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