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Re: [hr100] Hardrock Lottery: The cold, hard numbers

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  • Susan Gardner
    Hi Andrea - Hope you re doing ok in the cold. It seems most of my east mountain friends are fairing better than me because they run off of propane or have
    Message 1 of 3 , Feb 4, 2011
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      Hi Andrea -

      Hope you're doing ok in the cold. It seems most of my east mountain friends
      are fairing better than me because they run off of propane or have
      pellet/wood stoves. All I know is I don't have the right clothes to train
      in sub-zero wind chills!

      I have a quick question for you. Will you be tweeting the lottery results
      again? If so, what's the Hardrock twitter address? I tried searching but
      didn't find it.

      Thanks!
      Susan

      On Fri, Feb 4, 2011 at 11:28 AM, Andrea <andrea@...> wrote:

      >
      >
      > I have finished twice (in the very early days of the lottery when chances
      > were much higher) and started 3 more times than that (prior to the lottery).
      > Since 1998 this has been my summer "thing"; I'll never forget my first
      > trailwork experience with Charlie, helping to cut the Nute Chute and meeting
      > other diehards.
      >
      > While I dream of coming back (after my current road marathon 'experiment')
      > for a daylight finish of under 39 hours, I am reaching a point where I can
      > comfortably decide that I am done. Hardrock gives me a lot and I continue to
      > give back and I can make a my contribution by volunteering and just enjoy
      > being around you awesome people.
      >
      > I am not advocating that long-timers give it a rest, just thinking out loud
      > about what is tenable to me and my goals.
      >
      > Good luck to everyone, of course.
      >
      > Andrea
      > HRH Board of Directors, Potlick Mistress, Aid Station Captain
      >
      >
      > -----Original Message-----
      > From: hr100@yahoogroups.com <hr100%40yahoogroups.com> [mailto:
      > hr100@yahoogroups.com <hr100%40yahoogroups.com>] On Behalf Of Blake P.
      > Wood
      > Sent: Friday, February 04, 2011 11:15 AM
      > To: hr100@yahoogroups.com <hr100%40yahoogroups.com>
      > Subject: [hr100] Hardrock Lottery: The cold, hard numbers
      >
      > We will hold our lottery for this summer's Hardrock Hundred on Sunday.
      > Results should be available at http://www.hardrock100.com in the early
      > afternoon.
      >
      > As of last weekend, we had 596 applicants. A few more have arrived this
      > week, but there are also a few that will probably be rejected for not having
      > met our qualifying standards, so call it about 600 even.
      >
      > By permit, we can start 140, and will choose that number in the lottery.
      > Beyond that, we will draw an ordered wait list of about 100. Last year, the
      > final runner to get into the run was initially #28 on the wait list.
      >
      > After subtracting out the 38 automatically accepted runners (5-time
      > finishers and last year's winners), we have 559 runners vying for 102
      > starting slots.
      >
      > Runners have 1-6 tickets in the lottery. The algorithm for assigning
      > tickets can be found at http://hardrock100.com/hardrock-lottery.php The
      > current distribution of tickets is:
      >
      > 1 ticket: 245
      > 2 tickets: 174
      > 3 tickets: 74
      > 4 tickets: 31
      > 5 tickets: 20
      > 6 tickets: 15
      >
      > Based on these numbers, a monte-carlo simulation of a million lotteries
      > predicts the following chances for being selected:
      >
      > Holders of 1 ticket have a 9.8 percent chance of getting in.
      > Holders of 2 tickets have a 18.7 percent chance of getting in.
      > Holders of 3 tickets have a 26.7 percent chance of getting in.
      > Holders of 4 tickets have a 34.0 percent chance of getting in.
      > Holders of 5 tickets have a 40.4 percent chance of getting in.
      > Holders of 6 tickets have a 46.3 percent chance of getting in.
      >
      > Some implications of these numbers are:
      >
      > - We expect about 17% of the field to be first-time applicants.
      >
      > - Although your chances nearly double by having two tickets vs. one ticket,
      > due to our having about 50% more applicants this year than last, a person
      > who has two tickets this year has about the same chance of getting in as
      > they did with one ticket last year.
      >
      > - There is a 97% chance that as many as five of the 15 six-ticket holders
      > will not be selected.
      >
      > Those are the cold, hard numbers. Believe me, it's tough to conduct the
      > lottery and watch a bunch of your close friends not get selected.
      >
      > I speculate that we are seeing the beginning of a swell of applicants who
      > got into ultra running after having read DK's book or "Born To Run", and are
      > just now getting to the point where they meet the qualifications to run
      > Hardrock. I think we'll have over 1000 applicants in two years. It is
      > unlikely that we will increase the number of runners that we start.
      >
      > Good luck to all of you who are in the lottery. I really mean that.
      >
      > - Blake (President, Hardrock BoD)
      >
      > Blake P. Wood, Ph.D.
      > Group XTD-5, Applied Theoretical Physics Air Force Systems Design and
      > Assessment Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos, NM 87544
      > 505-665-6524 <tel:+15056656524>, bwood@... <bwood%40lanl.gov>
      >
      > --
      > Blake P. Wood
      > Group XTD-5, Air Force Systems Design and Assessment Los Alamos National
      > Laboratory Los Alamos, NM 87544 505-665-6524 <tel:+15056656524>,
      > bwood@... <bwood%40lanl.gov>
      >
      > ------------------------------------
      >
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