Re: [hr100] Hardrock Lottery: The cold, hard numbers
- Hi Andrea -
Hope you're doing ok in the cold. It seems most of my east mountain friends
are fairing better than me because they run off of propane or have
pellet/wood stoves. All I know is I don't have the right clothes to train
in sub-zero wind chills!
I have a quick question for you. Will you be tweeting the lottery results
again? If so, what's the Hardrock twitter address? I tried searching but
didn't find it.
On Fri, Feb 4, 2011 at 11:28 AM, Andrea <andrea@...> wrote:
> I have finished twice (in the very early days of the lottery when chances
> were much higher) and started 3 more times than that (prior to the lottery).
> Since 1998 this has been my summer "thing"; I'll never forget my first
> trailwork experience with Charlie, helping to cut the Nute Chute and meeting
> other diehards.
> While I dream of coming back (after my current road marathon 'experiment')
> for a daylight finish of under 39 hours, I am reaching a point where I can
> comfortably decide that I am done. Hardrock gives me a lot and I continue to
> give back and I can make a my contribution by volunteering and just enjoy
> being around you awesome people.
> I am not advocating that long-timers give it a rest, just thinking out loud
> about what is tenable to me and my goals.
> Good luck to everyone, of course.
> HRH Board of Directors, Potlick Mistress, Aid Station Captain
> -----Original Message-----
> From: email@example.com <hr100%40yahoogroups.com> [mailto:
> firstname.lastname@example.org <hr100%40yahoogroups.com>] On Behalf Of Blake P.
> Sent: Friday, February 04, 2011 11:15 AM
> To: email@example.com <hr100%40yahoogroups.com>
> Subject: [hr100] Hardrock Lottery: The cold, hard numbers
> We will hold our lottery for this summer's Hardrock Hundred on Sunday.
> Results should be available at http://www.hardrock100.com in the early
> As of last weekend, we had 596 applicants. A few more have arrived this
> week, but there are also a few that will probably be rejected for not having
> met our qualifying standards, so call it about 600 even.
> By permit, we can start 140, and will choose that number in the lottery.
> Beyond that, we will draw an ordered wait list of about 100. Last year, the
> final runner to get into the run was initially #28 on the wait list.
> After subtracting out the 38 automatically accepted runners (5-time
> finishers and last year's winners), we have 559 runners vying for 102
> starting slots.
> Runners have 1-6 tickets in the lottery. The algorithm for assigning
> tickets can be found at http://hardrock100.com/hardrock-lottery.php The
> current distribution of tickets is:
> 1 ticket: 245
> 2 tickets: 174
> 3 tickets: 74
> 4 tickets: 31
> 5 tickets: 20
> 6 tickets: 15
> Based on these numbers, a monte-carlo simulation of a million lotteries
> predicts the following chances for being selected:
> Holders of 1 ticket have a 9.8 percent chance of getting in.
> Holders of 2 tickets have a 18.7 percent chance of getting in.
> Holders of 3 tickets have a 26.7 percent chance of getting in.
> Holders of 4 tickets have a 34.0 percent chance of getting in.
> Holders of 5 tickets have a 40.4 percent chance of getting in.
> Holders of 6 tickets have a 46.3 percent chance of getting in.
> Some implications of these numbers are:
> - We expect about 17% of the field to be first-time applicants.
> - Although your chances nearly double by having two tickets vs. one ticket,
> due to our having about 50% more applicants this year than last, a person
> who has two tickets this year has about the same chance of getting in as
> they did with one ticket last year.
> - There is a 97% chance that as many as five of the 15 six-ticket holders
> will not be selected.
> Those are the cold, hard numbers. Believe me, it's tough to conduct the
> lottery and watch a bunch of your close friends not get selected.
> I speculate that we are seeing the beginning of a swell of applicants who
> got into ultra running after having read DK's book or "Born To Run", and are
> just now getting to the point where they meet the qualifications to run
> Hardrock. I think we'll have over 1000 applicants in two years. It is
> unlikely that we will increase the number of runners that we start.
> Good luck to all of you who are in the lottery. I really mean that.
> - Blake (President, Hardrock BoD)
> Blake P. Wood, Ph.D.
> Group XTD-5, Applied Theoretical Physics Air Force Systems Design and
> Assessment Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos, NM 87544
> 505-665-6524 <tel:+15056656524>, bwood@... <bwood%40lanl.gov>
> Blake P. Wood
> Group XTD-5, Air Force Systems Design and Assessment Los Alamos National
> Laboratory Los Alamos, NM 87544 505-665-6524 <tel:+15056656524>,
> bwood@... <bwood%40lanl.gov>
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