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RE: [hr100] Hardrock Lottery: The cold, hard numbers

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  • Andrea
    I have finished twice (in the very early days of the lottery when chances were much higher) and started 3 more times than that (prior to the lottery). Since
    Message 1 of 3 , Feb 4, 2011
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      I have finished twice (in the very early days of the lottery when chances were much higher) and started 3 more times than that (prior to the lottery). Since 1998 this has been my summer "thing"; I'll never forget my first trailwork experience with Charlie, helping to cut the Nute Chute and meeting other diehards.

      While I dream of coming back (after my current road marathon 'experiment') for a daylight finish of under 39 hours, I am reaching a point where I can comfortably decide that I am done. Hardrock gives me a lot and I continue to give back and I can make a my contribution by volunteering and just enjoy being around you awesome people.

      I am not advocating that long-timers give it a rest, just thinking out loud about what is tenable to me and my goals.

      Good luck to everyone, of course.

      Andrea
      HRH Board of Directors, Potlick Mistress, Aid Station Captain

      -----Original Message-----
      From: hr100@yahoogroups.com [mailto:hr100@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Blake P. Wood
      Sent: Friday, February 04, 2011 11:15 AM
      To: hr100@yahoogroups.com
      Subject: [hr100] Hardrock Lottery: The cold, hard numbers


      We will hold our lottery for this summer's Hardrock Hundred on Sunday.
      Results should be available at http://www.hardrock100.com in the early afternoon.

      As of last weekend, we had 596 applicants. A few more have arrived this week, but there are also a few that will probably be rejected for not having met our qualifying standards, so call it about 600 even.

      By permit, we can start 140, and will choose that number in the lottery.
      Beyond that, we will draw an ordered wait list of about 100. Last year, the final runner to get into the run was initially #28 on the wait list.

      After subtracting out the 38 automatically accepted runners (5-time finishers and last year's winners), we have 559 runners vying for 102 starting slots.

      Runners have 1-6 tickets in the lottery. The algorithm for assigning tickets can be found at http://hardrock100.com/hardrock-lottery.php The current distribution of tickets is:

      1 ticket: 245
      2 tickets: 174
      3 tickets: 74
      4 tickets: 31
      5 tickets: 20
      6 tickets: 15

      Based on these numbers, a monte-carlo simulation of a million lotteries predicts the following chances for being selected:

      Holders of 1 ticket have a 9.8 percent chance of getting in.
      Holders of 2 tickets have a 18.7 percent chance of getting in.
      Holders of 3 tickets have a 26.7 percent chance of getting in.
      Holders of 4 tickets have a 34.0 percent chance of getting in.
      Holders of 5 tickets have a 40.4 percent chance of getting in.
      Holders of 6 tickets have a 46.3 percent chance of getting in.

      Some implications of these numbers are:

      - We expect about 17% of the field to be first-time applicants.

      - Although your chances nearly double by having two tickets vs. one ticket, due to our having about 50% more applicants this year than last, a person who has two tickets this year has about the same chance of getting in as they did with one ticket last year.

      - There is a 97% chance that as many as five of the 15 six-ticket holders will not be selected.

      Those are the cold, hard numbers. Believe me, it's tough to conduct the lottery and watch a bunch of your close friends not get selected.

      I speculate that we are seeing the beginning of a swell of applicants who got into ultra running after having read DK's book or "Born To Run", and are just now getting to the point where they meet the qualifications to run Hardrock. I think we'll have over 1000 applicants in two years. It is unlikely that we will increase the number of runners that we start.

      Good luck to all of you who are in the lottery. I really mean that.


      - Blake (President, Hardrock BoD)

      Blake P. Wood, Ph.D.
      Group XTD-5, Applied Theoretical Physics Air Force Systems Design and Assessment Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos, NM 87544 505-665-6524, bwood@...



      --
      Blake P. Wood
      Group XTD-5, Air Force Systems Design and Assessment Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos, NM 87544 505-665-6524, bwood@...


      ------------------------------------

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    • Susan Gardner
      Hi Andrea - Hope you re doing ok in the cold. It seems most of my east mountain friends are fairing better than me because they run off of propane or have
      Message 2 of 3 , Feb 4, 2011
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        Hi Andrea -

        Hope you're doing ok in the cold. It seems most of my east mountain friends
        are fairing better than me because they run off of propane or have
        pellet/wood stoves. All I know is I don't have the right clothes to train
        in sub-zero wind chills!

        I have a quick question for you. Will you be tweeting the lottery results
        again? If so, what's the Hardrock twitter address? I tried searching but
        didn't find it.

        Thanks!
        Susan

        On Fri, Feb 4, 2011 at 11:28 AM, Andrea <andrea@...> wrote:

        >
        >
        > I have finished twice (in the very early days of the lottery when chances
        > were much higher) and started 3 more times than that (prior to the lottery).
        > Since 1998 this has been my summer "thing"; I'll never forget my first
        > trailwork experience with Charlie, helping to cut the Nute Chute and meeting
        > other diehards.
        >
        > While I dream of coming back (after my current road marathon 'experiment')
        > for a daylight finish of under 39 hours, I am reaching a point where I can
        > comfortably decide that I am done. Hardrock gives me a lot and I continue to
        > give back and I can make a my contribution by volunteering and just enjoy
        > being around you awesome people.
        >
        > I am not advocating that long-timers give it a rest, just thinking out loud
        > about what is tenable to me and my goals.
        >
        > Good luck to everyone, of course.
        >
        > Andrea
        > HRH Board of Directors, Potlick Mistress, Aid Station Captain
        >
        >
        > -----Original Message-----
        > From: hr100@yahoogroups.com <hr100%40yahoogroups.com> [mailto:
        > hr100@yahoogroups.com <hr100%40yahoogroups.com>] On Behalf Of Blake P.
        > Wood
        > Sent: Friday, February 04, 2011 11:15 AM
        > To: hr100@yahoogroups.com <hr100%40yahoogroups.com>
        > Subject: [hr100] Hardrock Lottery: The cold, hard numbers
        >
        > We will hold our lottery for this summer's Hardrock Hundred on Sunday.
        > Results should be available at http://www.hardrock100.com in the early
        > afternoon.
        >
        > As of last weekend, we had 596 applicants. A few more have arrived this
        > week, but there are also a few that will probably be rejected for not having
        > met our qualifying standards, so call it about 600 even.
        >
        > By permit, we can start 140, and will choose that number in the lottery.
        > Beyond that, we will draw an ordered wait list of about 100. Last year, the
        > final runner to get into the run was initially #28 on the wait list.
        >
        > After subtracting out the 38 automatically accepted runners (5-time
        > finishers and last year's winners), we have 559 runners vying for 102
        > starting slots.
        >
        > Runners have 1-6 tickets in the lottery. The algorithm for assigning
        > tickets can be found at http://hardrock100.com/hardrock-lottery.php The
        > current distribution of tickets is:
        >
        > 1 ticket: 245
        > 2 tickets: 174
        > 3 tickets: 74
        > 4 tickets: 31
        > 5 tickets: 20
        > 6 tickets: 15
        >
        > Based on these numbers, a monte-carlo simulation of a million lotteries
        > predicts the following chances for being selected:
        >
        > Holders of 1 ticket have a 9.8 percent chance of getting in.
        > Holders of 2 tickets have a 18.7 percent chance of getting in.
        > Holders of 3 tickets have a 26.7 percent chance of getting in.
        > Holders of 4 tickets have a 34.0 percent chance of getting in.
        > Holders of 5 tickets have a 40.4 percent chance of getting in.
        > Holders of 6 tickets have a 46.3 percent chance of getting in.
        >
        > Some implications of these numbers are:
        >
        > - We expect about 17% of the field to be first-time applicants.
        >
        > - Although your chances nearly double by having two tickets vs. one ticket,
        > due to our having about 50% more applicants this year than last, a person
        > who has two tickets this year has about the same chance of getting in as
        > they did with one ticket last year.
        >
        > - There is a 97% chance that as many as five of the 15 six-ticket holders
        > will not be selected.
        >
        > Those are the cold, hard numbers. Believe me, it's tough to conduct the
        > lottery and watch a bunch of your close friends not get selected.
        >
        > I speculate that we are seeing the beginning of a swell of applicants who
        > got into ultra running after having read DK's book or "Born To Run", and are
        > just now getting to the point where they meet the qualifications to run
        > Hardrock. I think we'll have over 1000 applicants in two years. It is
        > unlikely that we will increase the number of runners that we start.
        >
        > Good luck to all of you who are in the lottery. I really mean that.
        >
        > - Blake (President, Hardrock BoD)
        >
        > Blake P. Wood, Ph.D.
        > Group XTD-5, Applied Theoretical Physics Air Force Systems Design and
        > Assessment Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos, NM 87544
        > 505-665-6524 <tel:+15056656524>, bwood@... <bwood%40lanl.gov>
        >
        > --
        > Blake P. Wood
        > Group XTD-5, Air Force Systems Design and Assessment Los Alamos National
        > Laboratory Los Alamos, NM 87544 505-665-6524 <tel:+15056656524>,
        > bwood@... <bwood%40lanl.gov>
        >
        > ------------------------------------
        >
        >
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        >
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