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Hardrock lottery statistics

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  • Blake P. Wood
    I ve run this year s Hardrock lottery numbers through my monte carlo lottery simulation to predict the chances of getting in for runners holding a particular
    Message 1 of 1 , Feb 6, 2009
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      I've run this year's Hardrock lottery numbers through my monte carlo lottery simulation to predict the chances of getting in for runners holding a particular number of tickets.

      You can find the full results linked from the Hardrock entry selection procedure page at http://www.run100s.com/HR/Selection_procedure_2009.html or directly at http://www.run100s.com/HR/Hardrock2009lotterychances.pdf

      Here is a summary of the numbers - looks like we had a fair lottery, given our rules going in:

      #Tickets Applicants Expected# Actual# Expected range
      1 100 18 18 12-22
      2 110 36 40 30-42
      3 52 23 22 19-28
      4 31 17 17 13-21
      5 14 9 6 6-12
      6 5 4 4 2-5
      7 4 3 3 2-4

      The expected range is within sqrt(expected #) of the expected # - a standard statistical rule-of-thumb.

      We had 346 qualified applicants vying for 140 entry slots, that is, we had 2.5x as many entrants as available slots. After excluding the 30 runners who were automatically accepted (see why at the link above) there were 316 runners in the lottery for 110 slots. 65% of them were bound to be disappointed. Sorry if you were one of them.

      Of the 18 one-ticket holders who got in, 16 were first-time applicants.

      67 got in of the 169 applicants who did not get to start (wait listed or withdrew from the start list) at some point in the past three years.

      47 got in of the 113 applicants who did not get to start last year.

      13 got in of the 33 applicants who did not get to start in BOTH of the past two years.

      For the purposes of our lottery, we don't distinguish between runners who were stuck on the wait list and those who withdrew from the start list, so I haven't split these out above. Some of those who didn't get to start did so by choice.


      - Blake
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